Tag Archive: negative interest

Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: After SNB Meeting

Update June 29, 2020: After SNB Meeting. Sight Deposits have risen by +2.9 bn CHF, this means that the SNB is intervening and buying Euros and Dollars: The change is +2.9 bn. compared to last week.

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What Can Kill a Useless Currency, Report 28 Oct 2018

There is a popular notion, at least among American libertarians and gold bugs. The idea is that people will one day “get woke”, and suddenly realize that the dollar is bad / unbacked / fiat / unsound / Ponzi / other countries don’t like it / . When they do, they will repudiate it. That is, sell all their dollars to buy consumer goods (i.e. hyperinflation), gold, and/or whatever other currency. Redemptions Balanced With Deposits No national...

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Useless But Not Worthless, Report 21 Oct 2018

Let’s continue to look at the fiasco in the franc. We say “fiasco”, because anyone in Switzerland who is trying to save for retirement has been put on a treadmill, which is now running backwards at –¾ mph (yes, miles per hour in keeping with our treadmill analogy). Instead of being propelled forward towards their retirement goals by earning interest that compounds, they are losing principal.

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Permanent Gold Backwardation, Report 30 Sep 2018

Sometimes, one just needs to look in the right place. And often in those cases, it just takes a conversation to alert one where to look. We had a call with a Swiss company this week, to discuss gold financing for their business. They reminded us that there is a negative interest rate on Swiss francs. And then they said that a swap of francs for gold has a cost. That is, the CHF GOFO rate is negative (the dollar based 12-month MM GOFO™ is +2.4%).

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Weekly SNB Interventions Update: Slight Rise after Weeks of Near-Zero Interventions

The pro-European politician Macron has won the French elections. His success moved the EUR/CHF up to 1.0980, mostly caused by FX speculators. But "serious" investors (not FX speculators) did not follow the political event, but focus on monetary policy. A ECB rate hike is very, very far, see why....

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Weekly Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: SNB interventions are rising again

The SNB intervenes for 1.6 bn CHF at EUR/CHF 1.07 - 1.0750. This is less than previously.

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Weekly Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: SNB interventions are rising again

The SNB intervenes for 2.9 bn CHF at EUR/CHF 1.07. For us, clearly too much and too risky; she will not maintain this pace over a longer term. Hence the EUR/CHF is prone to fall again.

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Weekly Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: EUR/CHF suddenly higher after ECB

The EUR/CHF suddenly appreciated with the ECB meeting, when Draghi seemed less dovish than before. The rate rose from the previous 1.0650 to over 1.0750. With the SNB meeting, the EUR/CHF receded again. SNB interventions, are currently at 2 bn. per week compared to 5 bn. before Draghi.

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Weekly Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: EUR/CHF suddenly higher after ECB

The SNB intervened less than before. Investors might have changed their positions after a less dovish ECB.

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Weekly Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: Each week an intervention record.

Once again a massive SNB intervention and a post Trump election record: 5,1 billion, at far too expensive FX rates: EUR rate of 1.0648 and USD/CHF over parity.

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Each Week the Same: Another SNB Intervention Record

Once again: another record in SNB intervention record for the period after Trump's election: an increase of 4.7 billion CHF in sight deposits. The trend for EUR/CHF versus parity getting confirmed.

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Weekly Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: Once again a new SNB intervention record

Once again a massive SNB intervention and a post Trump election record: 4.5 billion CHF at a EUR rate of 1.0648.

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Weekly Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: Another Post-Trump SNB Intervention Record

A big Swiss bank bets on EUR/CHF 1.10 as soon as the ECB ends their bond buying program. But one should realize that private investors will need to buy the EUR at 1.10, but the SNB is not willing to do so any more. Hence we must see SNB interventions of zero, before EUR/CHF goes to 1.10.

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Weekly Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: SNB Intervenes for 2.4 bn CHF, while Speculators increase CHF Shorts

SNB intervenes for 2.4 bn CHF, while speculators increase their CHF shorts to 17K.

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Weekly Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: Strong Swiss Trade Balance: SNB allows EUR/CHF to 1.0680

With the strong Swiss trade balance, the SNB let EUR/CHF fall to 1.0680. SNB intervenes for 0.5 bn CHF. Speculators are net short CHF with 13.6K contracts against USD, nearly unchanged.

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Weekly Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: Weaker dollar let SNB accumulates losses

EUR/CHF is slightly above the “in-official minimum band”. The weaker dollar leads to bigger SNB losses in January. SNB intervenes for 0.9 bn at higher EUR/CHF rate. Speculators are net short CHF with 13.7K contracts against USD.

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Weekly Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: Stronger SNB interventions at more expensive EUR

EUR/CHF slightly above the “in-official minimum band” of 1.0680 – 1.07. SNB intervenes for 1.7 bn at higher EUR/CHF rate. Speculators are net short CHF with 14K contracts against USD.

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Weekly Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: SNB Intervenes, Speculators Short CHF again

EUR/CHF at the "in-official minimum band" of 1.0680 to 1.07. SNB intervenes for 0.7 bn CHF to keep the euro slightly over 1.07. Speculators are net short CHF with 13K contracts against USD, 3K more than last week. This is still far from the post financial crisis record of 26 K contracts. Moreover the net short GBP are increasing again.

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Weekly Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: SNB Intervenes, Speculators Short CHF again

Last week's data: FX: EUR/CHF was between 1.07 and 1.0750. SNB sight deposits: SNB intervenes for 0.7 bn. CHF at the EUR/CHF 1.07 level. CHF Speculative Positions Speculators went net short CHF with 10K contracts, this is still far from the 26.K contracts record.

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Weekly Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: SNB intervenes, while Speculators go Long CHF

The Fed has hiked rates and with this fait accomplis speculators sold the news. They closed their short CHF and opened new CHF longs. The SNB, however, intervened again for 0.5 billion CHF.

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