Tag Archive: MXN

FX Daily, April 25: Euro Consolidates Gains, Bond Market Sell-Off Continues

The US dollar is again at the fulcrum of the foreign exchange market. The dollar-bloc currencies are under pressure, along with the Japanese yen, while the European complex is posting modest gains. The euro is consolidating in the half cent below $1.09. Yesterday's marked up in early Asia saw the euro complete the 61.8% retracement of the losses since the US election, which was found near $1.0935

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FX Daily, March 31: Greenback Finishing Weak Quarter in Mixed Fashion

The US dollar fell against all the major currencies in the first three months of 2017. The weakness initially seemed to be a correction to the rally, which began before the US election last year. The dollar recovered in February, in anticipation of a hawkish Fed in March.

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FX Daily, 01 February: Markets Stabilize, Investors Await Signals from US data and FOMC, and POTUS

(commentary will be sporadic for the next couple of weeks during a European business trip) The US dollar is consolidating yesterday's losses that were spurred speculation that the US was abandoning the more than 20-year old strong dollar policy. The meaning of that policy was clear to global investors even if it was often parodied.

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FX Weekly Preview: Yellen nor Kuroda nor Carney will Take the Spotlight from Trump

Fed, BOJ, and BOE meet next week, each may adjust economic assessments in more favorable direction. Key challenge for many investors is the new US Administration. US employment, EMU inflation, Q4 GDP, and China's PMI are among the data highlights.

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Great Graphic: Mexico and China Unit Labor Costs

Mexico has been gaining competitiveness over China before last year's depreciation of the peso. The depreciation of the peso, and other US actions can contribute to the destabilization of Mexico. An economically prosperous and stable Mexico has long been understood to be in the US interest.

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FX Daily, January 27: Week Ending on Mixed Note as Year of Rooster Begins

The Lunar New Year celebration thinned participation in Asia, where several centers are closed. Although the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped slightly, it rose 1.5% on the week, the fourth weekly gain in the past five weeks. The Nikkei advanced 0.35%, the third rise in a row. The 1.75% gain for the week snaps a two-week decline.

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FX Daily, January 23: Dollar’s Pre-Weekend Retreat Extended in Asia Before Stabilizing in Europe

The US dollar had a poor close in the North American session before the weekend as investors appear increasing anxious about the new US Administration's economic policies and priorities.With no fresh details emerging over the weekend, some stale dollar longs exited. The dollar stabilized in the European morning, but broader risk appetites were not rekindled, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600, led by financials, was sold to its lowest level this month.

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FX Daily, January 13: Corrective Forces Persist

The Supreme Court Judgement on whether parliament will have to O.K the triggering of article 50 is ongoing and when the ruling is announced expect big swings on GBP/CHF. I think the likely outcome will be that parliament will get the vote, most broad sheet papers have indicated the majority of the judges are in favour of the parliamentary vote.

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Cool Video: CNBC’s Power Lunch-China and Mexico

Two central banks were particularly active today. Chinese officials appear to be engineering short squeeze that has lifted the yuan 1.2% over the past two sessions. While this does not sound like much, it is a record two-day move, for the still closely managed currency.

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FX Daily, January 06: Dollar Consolidates Losses, Peso Firms while Yuan Reverses

I am reading a lot about the pound in 2017 which is likely to be as volatile as in 2016. But the Franc is a harder beast to predict. Loosely tracking the euro but subject to its own rules and trends GBPCHF could be an interesting pair to watch in 2017. There are numerous global events which can shape the direction on the Franc and clients looking to exchange pounds into Francs or move Francs back to the UK should be considering the path ahead.

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FX Weekly Preview: Forces of Movement

US election results accelerated forces that were already present. Interest rates have appeared to bottom, fiscal stimulus in Canada and Japan already evident, and divergence between US and EMU/Japan monetary policy. US stimuli may reach when the economy is already near trend.

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Cool Video: Bloomberg Interview – Peso, Equities, Yuan

Even before the my polling station opened today, I had the privilege of being on Bloomberg Surveillance today with Gina Cervetti and Tom Keene. We talk about a wide range of issues directly and tangentially related to the US election. We discuss the outcome the market appears to be discounting.

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FX Daily, November 07: Dollar Stabilizing After Bounce

The DAX also gapped lower before the weekend and gapped higher today. It is stalling just ahead of the earlier gap from last week (10460-10508). It is up about 1.6% in late-morning turnover. The strongest sector is the financials, up 2.5%, with the banks up 3.4%. Deutsche Bank is snapping a five-session drop. It fell 9.1% last week. It has recouped more than half of that today.

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FX Weekly Preview: The US Election is The Driver in the Week Ahead

Neither the Mexican peso's performance nor the fed funds futures seem to show that investors think the election is very close. Not all poll analysis showed what the Financial Times called "knife-edge". None of the poll analysis showed Trump winning, and many appear to have stabilized over the last couple of days.

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FX Daily, November 03: Political Angst Drives Markets

GBP/CHF rates are trading below 1.20 on the exchange, providing those clients holding CHF with some of the best rates they’ve seen in the past six years. The Pounds woes have been well documented but with a key day of economic data releases ahead, is it all about to change?

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FX Daily, October 24: Dollar Begins Mostly Slightly Lower, and Risk is On to Start the Week

Sterling vs the Swiss Franc has remained close to its lowest level in history caused by the aftermath of the Brexit vote back in June and more recently the announcement that Article 50 will be triggered by March 2017. Confidence in Sterling exchange rates has plummeted recently and until we get some form of assurances as to how the talks may go with the European Union we could see Sterling fall even further against the Swiss Franc than its current...

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Weekly Speculative Positions: More Bearish Euros and CHF, Less Bullish the Yen

Speculators turned more bearish the euro and Swiss Franc and less bullish the Japanese yen in the Commitment of Traders week ending October 11.  

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FX Daily, September 27: US Debate Lifts Peso, but Leaves the Dollar Non-Plussed

Since the monetary assessment meeting, the EUR/CHF is trending downwards. Sight deposits indicate that the SNB is intervening 0.9 bn per week. We emphasized that the preferred intervention corridor is between 1.08 and 1.0850. The first US Presidential debate may not sway many voters but has lifted the Mexican peso. The peso, which has fallen by about 1.3% over the past two sessions, has stormed by 1.5% today as the seemingly biggest winner of the...

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FX Daily, September 22: Swiss Franc Strongest Currency Again

Once again the Swiss Franc was the strongest. The EUR/CHF depreciated to 1.0875. As said yesterday, the reasons: the Fed and the strong Swiss trade balance.

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