Tag Archive: momentum

Global Asset Allocation Update

2018-08-02

The risk budget is unchanged again this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between bonds and risk assets is evenly split. The only change to the portfolio is the one I wrote about last week, an exchange of TIP for SHY.

Read More »

Global Asset Allocation Update

2018-06-21

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-06-21

The risk budget is unchanged this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds and risk assets is evenly split. There are changes this month within the asset classes. How far are we from the end of this cycle? When will the next recession arrive and more importantly when will stocks and other markets start to anticipate a slowdown?

Read More »

Global Asset Allocation Update

2018-05-17

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-05-17

The risk budget changes this month as I add back the 5% cash raised in late October. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation to bonds is still 50% while the risk side now rises to 50% as well. I raised the cash back in late October due to the extreme overbought nature of the stock market and frankly it was a mistake. Stocks went from overbought to more overbought and I missed the rally to all time highs in January.

Read More »

Global Asset Allocation Update: Tariffs Don’t Warrant A Change…Yet

2018-03-12

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-03-12

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. We have had continued volatility since the last update but the market action so far is pretty mundane. The initial selloff halted at the 200 day moving average and the rebound carried to just over the 50 day moving average.

Read More »

Global Asset Allocation Update:

2018-02-09

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-02-09

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. Despite the selloff of the last week I don’t believe any portfolio action is warranted. While the overbought condition has largely been corrected now, the S&P 500 is far from the opposite condition, oversold. At the lows this morning, the S&P 500 was officially in correction territory, down 10% from the...

Read More »

Global Asset Allocation Update

2018-01-05

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2018-01-05

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market persists so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash. There are some minor changes within the portfolios but the overall allocation is unchanged.

Read More »

Global Asset Allocation Update

2017-12-02

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-12-02

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market did not correct since the last update and so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash.

Read More »

Global Asset Allocation Update

2017-11-05

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-11-05

The risk budget this month shifts slightly as we add cash to the portfolio. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is unchanged at 50%, risk assets are reduced to 45% and cash is raised to 5%. The changes this month are modest and may prove temporary but I felt a move to reduce risk was prudent given signs of exuberance – rational, irrational or otherwise.

Read More »

Global Asset Allocation Update: Step Away From The Portfolio

2017-09-25

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-09-25

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are no changes to the portfolios this month. The post Fed meeting market reaction was a bit surprising in its intensity. The actions of the Fed were, to my mind anyway, pretty much as expected but apparently the algorithms that move markets today were singing from a different hymnal.

Read More »

Global Asset Allocation Update: No Upside To Credit

2017-08-21

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-08-21

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are other changes to the portfolio though so please read on. As I write this the stock market is in the process of taking a dive (well if 1.4% is a “dive”) and one can’t help but wonder if the long awaited and anticipated correction is finally at hand.

Read More »

Global Asset Allocation Update: Not Yet

2017-07-18

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-07-18

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are no changes to the portfolio this month. Growth and inflation expectations rose somewhat since last month’s update. The change is minor though and within the range of what we’ve seen in recent months.

Read More »

Global Asset Allocation Update:

2017-06-24

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-06-24

Global Asset Allocation Update

2017-04-21

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-04-21

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. The performance of markets in the first quarter of the year was a bit schizophrenic. Stocks performed well which one might interpret as a reflection of improving economic growth prospects. Certainly President Trump and his proxies were quick to take credit but unfortunately for the new...

Read More »