Tag Archive: M1

Taper Discretion Means Not Loving Payrolls Anymore

2022-01-10

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2022-01-10

When Alan Greenspan went back to Stanford University in September 1997, his reputation was by then well-established. Even as he had shocked the world only nine months earlier with “irrational exuberance”, the theme of his earlier speech hadn’t actually been about stocks; it was all about money.The “maestro” would revisit that subject repeatedly especially in the late nineties, and it was again his topic in California early Autumn ’97.

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Further Unanchoring Is Not Strictly About Inflation

2017-03-18

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2017-03-18

University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers Inflation Expectations, Jan 1990 - 2017
According to Alan Greenspan in a speech delivered at Stanford University in September 1997, monetary policy in the United States had been shed of M1 by late 1982. The Fed has never been explicit about exactly when, or even why, monetary policy changed dramatically in the 1980’s to a regime of pure interest rate targeting of the federal funds rate.

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Global Risk Off: China Reenters Bear Market, Oil Tumbles Under $30; Global Stocks, US Futures Gutted

2016-01-15

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2016-01-15

   "We're gonna need a bigger Bullard"     - overheard on a trading desk this morning. Yesterday, when looking at the market's "Bullard 2.0" moment, which was a carbon copy of the market's kneejerk surge higher response to Bullard's "QE4" comments fr...

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The 2015 Update: Risks on the Rising SNB Money Supply

We explain the risks on the rising money supply in Switzerland. We distinguish between broad money supply (M1-M3) and narrow money supply (M0). Both are rising quickly.

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SNB’s IMF data

This IMF data on the SNB website shows SNB Forex and gold reserves in the last month. It is so-called "IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SNB Data)"

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Downwards and Upwards Drivers of Swiss Inflation

swiss cpi december
In the following we present the drivers of Swiss price inflation. We first present the components of the consumer price index. Then we explain which are upwards-drivers of inflation and which ones cause downwards adjustments.

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QE, QEE, the Money Multiplier and the Secular Stagnation Confusion

In some countries, the money multiplier is falling, in some others it is increasing, mostly due to central bank tightening. Does this justify to speak of secular stagnation?

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New Arthurian Economics and Martin Wolf’s “Strip banks of power to create money”

new arthurian economics debt per dollar m1


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Pros and Cons of the Swiss Countercyclical Capital Buffer

emu vs. swiss m3 credit, exceeds eurozone
Switzerland is currently living in a big real estate boom. The bubble bursting would imply that banks' collateral in the form of real estate falls in value. Therefore the banks' assets might fall because many home buyers might not be able to repay their mortgage.  If a real estate bubble pops, then banks should be better capitalized to absorb such a shock. Therefore the Swiss National Bank introduced macro-prudential measures, like the so-called...

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SNB Sight Deposits Fall by 1.2 Billion CHF, Weeks ending February 1 and 8

2013-02-11

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2013-02-11

SMI vs DAX January 2013
The latest improvement in U.S. unemployment and good PMIs, finally let the sight deposits (money supply) at the SNB fall by 800 million francs in week ending on February 1 and 400 million for the one of Feb 8 . See the recent history of sight deposits.

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SNB Sight Deposits Rise by 100 Million CHF, Week January28

2013-01-28

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2013-01-28

SMI vs DAX January 2013
While FX traders and some hedge funds are long EUR/CHF and some short covering happened, sight deposits show a different picture. They rise again, this time with 100 million francs (see details) in one week. Risk-off investors are not convinced yet that the euro crisis is finished, while other investors keep profit of the rising SMI...

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SNB Sight Deposits Rise by 2 Bln. Francs, M3 by 10 Bln., Week January 21

2013-01-21

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2013-01-21

swiss m1 vs. gdp and credit 2008-2012
While FX traders and some hedge funds go long the EUR/CHF, sight deposits at the SNB rise by 2 bln. francs (see details) in one week, M3 by nearly 10 bln. (nearly 2%) francs in one single month (see

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Definitions of money supply in the context of the SNB

Monetary Aggregates according SNB M0 M1 M2 M3


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SNB Monetary Data Week October 26

2012-10-29

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2012-10-29

swiss m1 vs. gdp and credit 2008-2012
Seasonal effects, the good months for the SNB and the US economy, but weaker ones for emerging markets and Switzerland Despite the seasonal effects between October and March, the SNB is not able to sell currency reserves consistently. Traditionally the USD gets stronger and stocks rise over the autumn months till January. This year’s stocks appreciation was possibly already anticipated …

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SNB Monetary Data Week October 19

2012-10-22

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2012-10-22

Swiss Trade Balance by regions English
Seasonal effects, the good months for the SNB and the US economy, but weaker ones for emerging markets and Switzerland Given that the seasonal effects between October to March have started, the SNB might be able to sell some currency reserves. Traditionally both the USD gets stronger and stocks rise over the autumn months till January. This year’s stocks appreciation was …

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SNB Monetary Data Week October 12

2012-10-15

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2012-10-15

Stock market performance per quarter
Seasonal effects, the good months for the SNB and the US economy, but weaker ones for emerging markets and Switzerland, have started Given that the seasonal effects between October to March have started, the SNB might be able to sell some currency reserves. Traditionally both the USD gets stronger and stocks rise over the autumn months till January. This year’s stocks …

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IMF Data: SNB Forex Reserves and Gold in September 2012

2012-10-12

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2012-10-12

This link  on the SNB website shows the data the central bank provides to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It shows the SNB Forex and gold reserves in the last month. It is so-called “IMF Special Data Dissemination Standard (SNB Data)” It is released together with the international investment position, some monetary aggregates and the balance of payments two weeks after …

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SNB Monetary Data Week October 5

2012-10-08

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2012-10-08

Stock market performance per quarter
Seasonal effects, the good months for the SNB and the US economy, but weaker ones for emerging markets and Switzerland, have started Given that the seasonal effects between October to March have started, the SNB might be able to sell some currency reserves. Traditionally the United States and the USD dollar become stronger and stocks rise over the autumn months …

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The win of the pro-bailout parties in the Greek elections was no win for the SNB

2012-06-25

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2012-06-25

Jordan
  The win for the pro-bailout parties in the Greek elections was no win for the Swiss National Bank (SNB), even if the fear of an immediate bank-run and extreme money flows into Switzerland are avoided.  Also the fact that QE3 is not coming in the next weeks did not help the SNB.

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