Tag Archive: $JPY

FX Daily, February 16: Corrective Forces Emerge, Tempering the Dollar’s Rally

2017-02-16

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2017-02-16

FX Performance, February 16 2017 Movers and Shakers
The Dollar Index had moved higher for ten consecutive sessions before reversing yesterday's gains to close lower. Yesterday and today's losses have seen the Dollar Index retrace 38.2% of the advance since February 2. That retracement objective was near 100.80. The 50% retracement is found near 100.50 and the 61.8% retracement by 100.20.

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FX Daily, February 15: Yellen Helps the Dollar Extend Streak

2017-02-15

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2017-02-15

The Dollar Index's ten-day rally was at risk yesterday, but Yellen's reiteration of the commitment to continue to lift rates gradually helped extend the streak to eleven sessions.This surpassed the streak around the election (November 7-November 18). With today's gains, it may draw closer to what appears to be the long streak, 14 sessions between April 30, 2012 and May 17.

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FX Daily, February 13: Quiet Start of Busy Week

2017-02-13

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2017-02-13

With inflation and growth reports due out this week and Federal Reserve Chair Yellen's testimony before Congress, it promises to be a busy week for investors. However, the week has begun off fairly quietly, while the recent rally in equities continues.

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FX Daily, February 10: US Dollar Holding on to Week’s Gains

2017-02-10

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2017-02-10

The US dollar is about 12 hours away from gaining against all the major currencies this week. The main talking points today remain Trump-centric. The US dollar is mixed as European trading gets underway. Of note the dollar is continuing to gain on the yen. The yen is off 0.4%, which is nearly half the week's decline. The Aussie is the strongest on the day, up about 0.2% to trim the week's loss to about 0.45%.

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FX Daily, February 09: Dollar Bounce in Asia is Sold in the European Morning

2017-02-09

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2017-02-09

Winter
The US dollar is firmer against most of the major currencies in fairly quiet Asian turnover, but is seeing those gains pared in early Europe. The highlights include the RBNZ meeting that left rates on hold, as widely expected. The concern about the strength of the Kiwi saw the market reduce the perceived likelihood of a rate hike. NZD came off.

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Is a Strong or Weak Dollar Good for the US? The $16 trillion Question

2017-02-09

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2017-02-09

Еagleflag
Dollar movement helps some economic interest and hurts others. From a strategic point of view, the best thing for the US is the market-generated rate. It was an important achievement that the forex market was de-weaponized. Many observers have been crying wolf about a currency war for many years, which may have de-sensitized investors to the threat of a real one.

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FX Daily, February 08: EUR/CHF down to 1.630, Swiss Boom Starting?

2017-02-08

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2017-02-08

EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, February 08
The reader might have seen the latest Swiss Consumer Sentiment and the UBS consumption indicator. They suggest that the Swiss boom phase should finally come. I anticipated the boom already in my slides for the CFA Society. The Swiss boom was postponed when the SNB decided to remove the euro peg in early 2015.

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The Dollar: Real or Nominal Rates?

2017-02-06

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2017-02-06

US Dollar Index Currency 2011-2017
Real interest rates are nominal rates adjusted for inflation expectations.Inflation expectations are tricky to measure. The Federal Reserve identifies two broad metrics. There are surveys, like the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey, and the Fed conducts a regular survey of professional forecasters. There are also market-based measures, like the breakevens, which compare the conventional yield to the inflation-linked, or protected...

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FX Weekly Preview: Politics Not Economics is Driving the Markets

2017-02-06

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2017-02-06

The Fed is more confident this year of stable growth and rising inflation. The new US Administration's economic agenda is beginning to take shape, though it is not clear that consumer interests will be pursued. There are several considerations, including politics in Europe, that are driving European rates higher. The RBA and RBNZ meet next week. Neither is expected to change policy.

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FX Daily, February 03: US Jobs Trump Europe’s Service PMIs

2017-02-03

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2017-02-03

FX Performance, February 03 2017 Movers and Shakers
Ahead of the weekend, there are two series of economic reports. The first are Europe's service PMI reports and the second is the US employment report. Neither report is likely to alter views significantly, but the latter has greater potential to move the market.

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FX Daily, February 02: Dollar Remains on Back Foot After ADP and FOMC

2017-02-02

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2017-02-02

FX Performance, February 02 2017 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar remains on its back foot despite the stronger than expected ADP job estimate and the FOMC that said nothing to dissuade investors that it will be gradually raising rates this year.  

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FX Daily, 01 February: Markets Stabilize, Investors Await Signals from US data and FOMC, and POTUS

2017-02-01

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2017-02-01

(commentary will be sporadic for the next couple of weeks during a European business trip) The US dollar is consolidating yesterday's losses that were spurred speculation that the US was abandoning the more than 20-year old strong dollar policy. The meaning of that policy was clear to global investors even if it was often parodied.

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FX Daily, January 31: Markets Look for Solid Footing

2017-01-31

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2017-01-31

FX Performance, January 31 2017 Movers and Shakers
The immigration imbroglio in the United States is being cited in various accounts for the price action, including yesterday's drop in the S&P 500, where the intraday loss was the largest since before the election. The drama is also being blamed for the dollar's losses yesterday, which it is consolidating today.

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Trump and the Dollar

2017-01-31

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2017-01-31

Dollar Shoes
US official comments on the FX market appear to have increased in frequency. They are mostly warnings about a strong dollar, but not all comments are dollar-negative. Policy is the ultimate driver but comments pose headline risk.

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FX Daily, January 30: EUR/CHF falls further to 1.650

2017-01-30

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2017-01-30

FX Performance, January 30 2017 Movers and Shakers
The EUR/CHF collapsed once again to 1.0650. This rate broke the 1.0680 - 1.0700 that constituted the previous intervention area. Reasons can be found in the weak U.S. GDP weak, in Trump's foreign trade policy and in the strong Swiss trade balance.

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FX Daily, January 27: Week Ending on Mixed Note as Year of Rooster Begins

2017-01-27

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2017-01-27

FX Performance, January 27 2017 Movers and Shakers
The Lunar New Year celebration thinned participation in Asia, where several centers are closed. Although the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped slightly, it rose 1.5% on the week, the fourth weekly gain in the past five weeks. The Nikkei advanced 0.35%, the third rise in a row. The 1.75% gain for the week snaps a two-week decline.

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US GDP Misses, but Final Domestic Sales Accelerate

2017-01-27

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2017-01-27

GDP
Net exports was a large drag on growth. Inventories flattered growth. Underlying signal, final domestic demand, increased 2.5% after 2.1% in Q3.

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Are Interest Rates No Longer Driving the Dollar?

2017-01-27

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2017-01-27

US 10-year yield and US Dollar
Many are concerned that the dollar and interest rates have become decoupled. We are not convinced. Correlations, not to be eyeballed, are still robust.

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FX Daily, January 26: EUR/CHF collapses to 1.670

2017-01-26

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2017-01-26

FX Performance, January 26 2017 Movers & Shakers
The US dollar is mostly firmer against the major currencies but is confined to narrow ranges, and well-worn ranges at that, but the focus has shifted to the strong advance in equities. Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrials finally rose through the psychologically-important 20k level, and the S&P 500 gapped higher to new record levels.

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FX Daily, January 25: Dollar is on the Defensive Despite Firmer Rates

2017-01-25

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2017-01-25

FX Performance, January 25 2017 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is softer against nearly all the major currencies. Participants appear to be growing increasingly frustrated with emerging priorities of the new US Administration. They want to hear more details and discussion of the tax reform, deregulation, and infrastructure plans.

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