Tag Archive: Japanese yen

Gold Prices Rise 16% In Q1 – Best Quarter In 30 Years

2016-04-02

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2016-04-02

Gold Prices Rise 16% In Q1 – Best Quarter In 30 Years – Gold prices gained 16% in Q1 – best quarterly performance since 1986– Gains due to increasing global financial, macroeconomic and monetary risk– Stocks come under pressure – Flat in U.S.; Falls ...

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Four Keys to The Week Ahead

2016-03-27

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2016-03-27

There are four events that will shape market psychology in the week ahead.  They are Yellen's speech to the NY Economic Club, US jobs data, eurozone March CPI and PMI, and Japan's Tankan Survey.   The broad backdrop is characterized by the rebuilding of risk appetites since the middle of February, though the MSCI emerging market … Continue reading...

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Weekly Speculative Position: Yen Longs Near Record Levels

2016-03-26

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2016-03-26

The most extreme speculative positioning, judging from the futures market is the long yen position.  The bulls added another 3.4k contracts, lifting the gross long position to 82.8k contracts.  The record was set in 2008 at 94.7k contracts.   The gross short position was trimmed by 4.5k contracts, leaving 29.5k.  It is the smallest gross short position …

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HSBC Looks At “Life Below Zero,” Says “Helicopter Money” May Be The Only Savior

2016-02-27

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2016-02-27

In many ways, 2016 has been the year that the world woke up to how far down Krugman’s rabbit hole (trademark) DM central bankers have plunged in a largely futile effort to resuscitate global growth. For whatever reason, Haruhiko Kuroda’s move into NI...

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How the Economist(s) manipulate gold’s value in one chart

2016-02-25

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2016-02-25

Todays “Chart of the Day” from The Economist makes an attempt to show that gold isn’t doing any better when it comes to preserving buying power than currencies such as the Swiss Franc (CHF) or the Japanese Yen (JPY). Roy Sebag, co-fou...

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Are Central Banks Setting Each Other Up?

2016-02-22

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2016-02-22

Authored by Mark St.Cyr, There are times you try to connect the dots. There are others where those connections warrant adorning your trusted tin-foiled cap of choice; for you just can’t get there unless you do. This I believe is one of those time...

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Global Stocks Soar On Stimulus Hopes After Miserable Chinese, Japanese Data; Short Squeeze

2016-02-15

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2016-02-15

Bad news is once again good news... for stocks that is.  After a month and a half of markets unable to decide if they should buy or sell on ugly data, over the weekend, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan expressed faith in the economy, ...

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How Low Can The Bank Of Japan Cut Rates? Ask Gold

2016-02-03

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2016-02-03

As we noted last night, in what was the second clear example of sheer desperation by the Bank of Japan, the central banker formerly known as Peter Pan for his on the record belief that "he should fly", and as of this morning better known as Peter Pan...

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Gerald Celente: Get Prepped For Global Systemic Collapse

2016-02-02

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2016-02-02

        Gerald Celente: Get Prepped For Global Systemic Collapse Posted with permission from Rory Hall, The Daily Coin (CLICK FOR ORIGINAL)     More ridiculous predictable market action today. The worse things become in the real world the more franti...

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BoJ Adopts Negative Interest Rates, Fails To Increase QE

2016-01-29

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2016-01-29

Well that did not last long. After initial exuberance over The BoJ's wishy-washy decision to adopt a 3-tiered rate policy including NIRP, markets have realized that without further asset purchases (which were maintained at the current pace), there is...

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Square Holes And Currency Pegs

2016-01-23

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2016-01-23

Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog, When David Bowie died, everybody, in what they wrote and said, seemed to feel they owned him, and owned his death, even if they hadn’t thought about him, or listened to him, for years....

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Global Risk Off: China Reenters Bear Market, Oil Tumbles Under $30; Global Stocks, US Futures Gutted

2016-01-15

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2016-01-15

   "We're gonna need a bigger Bullard"     - overheard on a trading desk this morning. Yesterday, when looking at the market's "Bullard 2.0" moment, which was a carbon copy of the market's kneejerk surge higher response to Bullard's "QE4" comments fr...

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(2.6) CPI-based Real Effective Exchange Rate Since 1965: Yen Still Most Overvalued Currency

Japa Switzerland Norway New Zealand Germany Australia Singapore Italy Canada Franc UK USA United States
If we calculate Real Effective Exchange rates on the base year 1965, the Japanese yen remains the most overvalued currency. This analysis is based on the real effective exchange rate (REER) provided by the Bank of International Settlement (BIS) and a consumer price-index adjusted exchange rate. The real value of the yen is around 50% higher than 1965, the same applies to the Swiss franc.

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(7) FX Theory: The Asset Market Model

Correlation Treasuries vs. Yen
The Asset Market Model implies that a currency will be in higher demand and should appreciate in value, if the flow of funds into financial market of the country such as equity and bonds markets increase.

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(8.1) Yen Weakness: Risk-Off Environment, Abenomics or Trade Deficit?

USD/JPY 2007-2013
The yen overshot during and after the financial crisis. The USD/JPY fell from 120 in 2008 to lowest levels of 74, by 62%, but rose to 102 again. What are the reasons?

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Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook August 12: Corrective Pressures Dominate

2013-08-12

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2013-08-12

Submitted by Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy, Brown Brothers Harriman The main tension in the foreign exchange market is between positions adjusting pressures, which are US dollar negative, and widely held ideas that the trajectory of growth and interest rate differentials favor the US, which is dollar positive. There are some important economic data due …

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Net Speculative Position and Technical Outlook: A Week of Fundamentals

2013-07-29

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2013-07-29

Submitted by Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy, Brown Brothers Harriman Fundamental considerations are likely to dominate technical factors in the week ahead. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and the European Central Bank meet. The PMIs are released. The first estimate of Q2 US GDP, July auto sales and the monthly employment will also be …

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Abenomics Succeeding? Don’t Believe the Mainstream Media, Just Energy and Import Prices Are Higher

2013-07-26

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2013-07-26

CPI Details Japan 2011-2013
  While the FT says: Abenomics is succeeding in bringing inflation back to Japan. The preferred core CPI measure, which excludes volatile food prices, rose a higher-than-anticipated 0.4 per cent in June (year-over-year), the highest reading since November 2008 and the first positive reading since April 2012. (The reading was flat in May). Overall inflation …

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Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: Dollar Correction at Hand?

2013-03-26

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2013-03-26

Submitted by Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy, Brown Brothers Harriman   The US dollar rose against all the major currencies in the past week.  It seems clear that the greenback’s gains were not a reflection of domestic developments, though it is true that US data stands in stark contrast with nearly every other major country. …

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Net Speculative Positions, Technical Forecast, Week March 04: King Dollar Returns?

2013-03-05

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2013-03-05

Submitted by Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy, Brown Brothers Harriman The US dollar rose against all the major currencies in the past week.  It seems clear that the greenback’s gains were not a reflection of domestic developments, though it is true that US data stands in stark contrast with nearly every other major country.   …

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