Tag Archive: Indonesia

Dollar Mixed on Central Bank Thursday

As expected, the Fed cut rates by 25 bp; the dollar firmed after the decision but has since given back some gains. During the North American session, there will be a fair amount of US data. BOE is expected to keep rates steady; UK reported August retail sales. SNB and BOJ kept rates steady, as expected; Norges Bank unexpectedly hiked 25 bp.

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FX Daily, July 18: Dollar on Back Foot as Equities Slide

Overview:  Profit-taking continues to weigh on global equities earnings concerns saw the biggest drop in the S&P 500 in three weeks.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the fourth consecutive session.  The Nikkei gapped lower for the second straight session and has now retraced half of the gains scored since early June.  The Shanghai Composite is at its lowest level in a month.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

EM FX came under greater pressure last week as the situation in Turkey deteriorated. With no weekend developments as of this writing, we expect Turkish assets to remain under pressure this week. Five worst EM currencies YTD are TRY (-41%), ARS (-36%), RUB (-15%), BRL (-14.5%), and ZAR (-12%). All five have serious baggage that warrants continued underperformance.

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

EM FX enjoyed a respite from the ongoing selling pressures, with most currencies up on the week vs. the dollar.  Best performers were CLP, MXN, and ZAR while the worst were TRY, CNY, and COP.  BOJ, Fed, and BOE meetings this week may pose some risks to EM FX.

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

PBOC fixed USD/CNY at the highest level since December 14. Bank Indonesia delivered a larger than expected 50 bp to 5.25%. Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov survived a second no-confidence vote this year. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was re-elected but with sweeping new powers. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and UAE are reportedly in talks to help stabilize Bahrain.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

EM FX ended Friday mixed, and capped off a mixed week overall as the dollar’s broad-based rally was sidetracked. EM may start the week on an upbeat after PBOC cut reserve requirements over the weekend. Best EM performers last week were ARS, MXN, and TRY while the worst were THB, IDR, and BRL.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

EM FX put in a mixed performance Friday, and capped off an overall mixed week. Over that week, the best performers were IDR, TRY, and INR while the worst were BRL, MXN, and ARS. US yields are recovering and likely to put renewed pressure on EM FX.

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

Bank Indonesia started a tightening cycle with a 25 bp hike to 4.5%. Jailed Malaysia opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was released by new Prime Minister Mahathir. Malaysia scrapped the controversial 6% goods and services tax (GST). Violent protests shook Israel as the relocated US embassy opened in Jerusalem.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

EM FX ended Friday on a week note and capped of another generally negative week. Worst performers last week were ARS, BRL, and TRY while the best were ZAR, RUB, and KRW. We remain negative on EM FX and look for losses to continue. US retail sales data Tuesday pose further downside risks to EM FX.

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Emerging Markets Preview: The Week Ahead

EM FX came under intense selling pressures last week. The worst performers were ARS, TRY, and MXN while the best were PHP, KRW, and TWD. US rates are likely to remain the key driver for EM FX, and so PPI and CPI data will be closely watched this week. We believe EM FX will remain under pressure.

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened to defend the HKD peg. Moody’s upgraded Indonesia by a notch to Baa2 with a stable outlook. MAS tightened policy by adjusting the slope of its S$NEER trading band up “slightly.” Hungary Prime Minister Orban won a fourth term for his Fidesz party. Poland central bank Governor said it’s possible that the next move will be a rate cut. Russia outlined a range of potential retaliatory measures in response to US...

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

EM FX was mostly stronger last week, despite the dollar’s firm tone against the majors. Best EM performers on the week were MXN, KRW, and COP while the worst were ZAR, INR, and PEN. US jobs data poses the biggest risk to EM this week, as US yields have been falling ahead of the data. Indeed, the current US 10-year yield of 2.74% is the lowest since February 6.

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

EM ended Friday under renewed selling pressures, and capped off a mostly softer week. COP, THB, and TWD were the best performers last week, while TRY, RUB, and ZAR were the worst. Despite a widely expected 25 bp hike, this week’s FOMC meeting still has potential to weigh on EM.

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Emerging Markets: Preview Week Ahead

EM FX ended Friday on a firm note and capped off a mostly firmer week. MXN, KRW, and ZAR were the best performers last week, while CLP, CZK, and PLN were the worst. US jobs data was mixed, with markets focusing on weak average hourly earnings rather than on the strong NFP number. Still, the data did nothing to change market expectations for a 25 bp by the FOMC this month.

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

China plans to change its constitution to eliminate term limits for President Xi Jinping. Bank Indonesia Deputy Governor Perry Warjiyo was nominated by President Widodo to be the next Governor. Bank of Korea Governor Lee was reappointed by President Moon for a second term. Hungary ruling party candidate lost the mayoral vote in Hodmezovasarhely. S&P upgraded Russia to BBB- with stable outlook.

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note and capped off a soft week overall. Best performers last week were ZAR, CLP, and PHP while the worst were TRY, ARS, and IDR. Fed Chief Powell’s testimony to Congress will likely draw market attention back to Fed policy.

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Emerging Markets: The Week Ahead, February 12

EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, as risk assets recovered a bit from broad-based selling pressures. Best EM performers on the week were ZAR, PHP, and CNY while the worst were COP, RUB, and ARS. Besides the risk-off impulses still reverberating through global markets, we think lower commodity prices are another headwind on EM.

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Net National Savings Rate, the Best Alternative Indicator to GDP Growth

For us the Net National Savings Rate is the best alternative indictator to GDP growth. It is positively correlated with the change in wealth, with the establishment of future productive capacity, the price of government bonds and currency valuations. But today GDP growth is often negatively correlated to the Net Savings Rate. Hence GDP is often a less useful measure.

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Global Inflation Spikes Up, Are You Sure About What You Are Doing Mr Draghi?

  The European Central Bank (ECB) has the habit of reacting late. As seen in July 2008 and July 2011, the ECB is often the last major central bank to hike rates. They hike rates at the moment when others prepare for a recession or a significant slowing. Currently we are witnessing the opposite movement: The world is getting … Continue...

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