Tag Archive: #GBP

FX Daily, January 30: She Can’t Accept No

2019-01-30

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2019-01-30

Overview: The UK Prime Minister has two weeks to strike a new deal with the EC over the Irish backstop or return to Parliament in mid-February to consider alternatives, six weeks before Brexit. Sterling has recovered about half of yesterday's drop. The Australian dollar jump back to $0.7200 was aided by the nearly 10% jump in iron ore price after Vale announced a sharp reduction in output.

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FX Daily, January 29: Fragile Tone Persists

2019-01-29

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2019-01-29

The positive impulse in the capital markets seen last week has faded. The gap higher opening ahead of the weekend by the S&P 500 was follow by a gap lower opening yesterday. The US threatened crackdown on Huawei disrupted equities in that sector, with as many as two dozen companies on the Shenzhen exchange that were limit down (10%).

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FX Daily, January 28: Getting Ducks Lined Up for Later in the Week

2019-01-28

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2019-01-28

Overview: The global capital markets are consolidating ahead of this week's big events, which include the FOMC meeting, US jobs, an important Brexit vote in the UK parliament and the first look at Q4 EMU and US GDP. The US dollar is narrowly mixed. Equities are mostly lower. European benchmark 10-year yields have edged up, though the US 10-year yield is struggling to hold above 2.75%.

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FX Weekly Preview: Divergence Reinvigorated

2019-01-28

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2019-01-28

Last week the focus was on Europe. Prospects of a delay in Brexit helped extend sterling's gains to 11-week highs. Disappointing flash PMI for the eurozone and a dovish Draghi pushed the euro below $1.13 for the first time since mid-December.

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FX Daily, January 24: Poor EMU PMI Compounds ECB’s Challenge

2019-01-24

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2019-01-24

Overview:  The eurozone's preliminary composite PMI for January fell to its lowest level since July 2013.  It reinforces expectations for a dovish Draghi press conference and saw the euro unwind yesterday's gains.  The US dollar is firmer against all the major currencies. 

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FX Daily, January 23: Markets Walk Tightrope after Yesterday’s US Equity Drop

2019-01-23

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2019-01-23

Overview:  Global equities have fared better than the 1.4% slide in the S&P 500 yesterday may have implied. Asian markets were mixed, with China, Korea, Hong Kong, Thailand advancing. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 from Europe is a little changed after falling for the past two sessions. 

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FX Daily, January 22: Dollar Consolidates and Equity Rally Stalls

2019-01-22

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2019-01-22

The US dollar is firmer against most major and emerging market currencies. The yen is a notable exception, and it is firmer, but well within recent ranges. The dollar-bloc currencies and the Norwegian krona are the weakest of the majors as a setback in equities and oil reflects a diminished risk appetite.

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FX Daily, January 21: Chinese Data and UK Brexit Start New Week

2019-01-21

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2019-01-21

Overview: Mixed data from China and the anticipation of Prime Minister May's "Plan B" are the main talking points, while US stock and bond markets are closed today.  Asia Pacific equities were higher, while European markets have failed to follow suit.  Benchmark 10-year bond yields are mostly softer, with the on-the-run Japanese Government Bond yield dipping back into negative territory.

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FX Weekly Preview: Things to Watch in the Week Ahead

2019-01-21

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2019-01-21

"The sky is falling. The sky is falling," they cried, as equities plunged in December. It is signaling a recession, we were told. Instead, global equities have begun the year with a strong advance. The S&P 500 gapped higher ahead of the weekend, extending this year's rally to about 14%.

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FX Daily, January 18: Markets Finishing Week on Positive Note

2019-01-18

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2019-01-18

Sentiment has improved since the volatility last month spooked investors and, perhaps, some policymakers. Global equities are rallying. The Shanghai Composite and the Nikkei are at their best levels in almost a month, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is at its best level since early December, gapping above a downtrend in place since late last September.

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FX Daily, January 17: Risk Assets Underperform as Investors Await Fresh Developments

2019-01-17

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2019-01-17

The capital markets remain relatively subdued as fresh trading incentives are awaited, including US corporate earnings. Some of the enthusiasm for risk-assets has diminished. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has stalled after trading at six-week highs yesterday, though most bourses in Asia were higher, but the Nikkei (Topix gained), China, and Singapore.

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FX Daily, January 16: Markets are Eerily Calm

2019-01-16

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2019-01-16

Overview: There is an eerie calm over in the capital market through the European morning today despite some ostensibly worrisome developments.  While many, like ourselves, expect UK Prime Minister May to survive a vote of confidence, it hardly clarifies the outlook. 

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Cool Video: Brexit–Now What?

2019-01-16

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2019-01-16

Marc Chandler CNBC
I joined Wilf Frost, and Sara Eisen on the CNBC set at the NYSE shortly after the House of Commons delivered an unprecedented defeat to UK Prime Minister May. Catherine Mann (Citi) and Christopher Smart (Barings). The guests generally agreed that a delay in Brexit was likely.

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FX Daily, January 15: New Phase Begins with UK Vote

2019-01-15

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2019-01-15

Several of the equity benchmarks are flirting with six-week highs, including MSCI Asia Pacific Index and the Emerging Markets Index. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is trying to extend its advancing streak for a third week, something not done since July.

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FX Daily, January 14: Dismal Chinese Trade Data Sets Tone

2019-01-14

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2019-01-14

Overview:  China's exports and imports were weaker than expected, though the trade surplus swelled to its widest in a couple of years. The implications have undermined equities and weighed on risk appetites more broadly. Nearly all the Asia-Pacific markets were lower except Japan and the Dow Jones Stoxx 60o in Europe is off 0.5% near midday to snap a four-day advance.

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FX Daily, January 11: Trade Optimism and the Recovery in Oil Boosts Risk Appetites

2019-01-11

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2019-01-11

Overview:  Optimism on trade talks between the US and China coupled with the biggest rally in WTI in two years (11%+) have helped keep the equity market recovery intact. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose today, the eighth time in the past ten sessions, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe is closing in on its second consecutive weekly advance. 

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FX Daily, January 10: Equity Bounce Stalls while the Greenback Steadies at Lower Levels

2019-01-10

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2019-01-10

Equities, bonds and the dollar are consolidating the moves seen earlier this week. This means equities are trading heavy and bonds firmer. The euro is paring gains that carried it to its best level (~$1.1570) since mid-October.  After stalling near JPY109 in the last two sessions, the greenback slumped to almost JPY107.75 before finding a better bid. 

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FX Daily, January 8: Dollar Steadies, but Weakly for Turn-Around Tuesday

2019-01-08

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2019-01-08

Overview: The global capital markets remain calm after the surge in volatility seen over the last couple of weeks. Asian equities were mixed, with the Japanese, Australia and Indian shares gaining, but other large regional markets, like China, South Korea, and Taiwan fell. European equities are firmer. Benchmark bond have edged higher. 

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FX Daily, January 07: Recovery Falters in Europe

2019-01-07

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2019-01-07

Overview:  The combination of robust US jobs and wage growth, more comforting words from Powell and a strong rally US stocks before the weekend helped lift Asian markets today and underpinned risk-taking appetites.  However, renewed protests in France (and Hungary) coupled with weak German factory orders have prevented European bourses from fully participating in the equity recovery. 

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A Word on Q3 COFER-It Might not be What You Think

2019-01-02

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2019-01-02

Foreign Exchange Reserves by Currency, Q1 2016 - Q3 2018
The IMF offers the most authoritative report on central bank reserves on a quarterly basis with a quarter lag.  The report, the Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), covering Q318 has been released.  It may be have been overlooked during the holidays, but if and when the pundits see it, the leading takeaway is that the dollar's share of global reserves fell below 62% for the first time five years.

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