Tag Archive: FOMC

FX Weekly Preview: BOJ and FOMC Meetings Featured in the Last Week of July

2016-07-25

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2016-07-25

A recent Reuters poll found about half of the 100 economists surveyed expect a hike in Q4, which really means December since the November meeting is too close to the national election. The other half is split between a Q3 rate hike (September) and some time in 2017. That said, two primary dealers anticipate no hike until the end of 2017.

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FX Weekly Preview: Macro Developments Will Not Stand in Way of Dollar Move Lower

2016-06-05

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2016-06-05

Through the first part of the year, the swinging pendulum of expectations for the trajectory of Fed policy has been a major driver in the foreign exchange market.  This is true even though the ECB and BOJ continue to ease monetary policy aggressively.   The Australian and New Zealand dollars appear to influenced more by the … Continue...

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FX Weekly Preview

2016-05-29

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2016-05-29

The US dollar bottomed against nearly all the major currencies on May 3.  The hawkish April FOMC minutes that began swaying opinion about the prospects for a summer rate hike were not published until two weeks later, and the confirmation by NY Fed President Dudley was not until May 19.  Nevertheless, the shift in expectations for …

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FX Week Ahead: Evolving Investment Climate

2016-05-22

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2016-05-22

The US dollar’s weakness in recent months, despite negative interest rates in Europe and Japan likely had many contributing factors. These factors include shifting views of Fed policy, weaker US growth, the recovery in commodity prices, including oil, gold and iron ore, and market positioning.

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FX Daily April 27: Two Issues Loom Large Today: Soft Australia CPI and FOMC

2016-04-27

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2016-04-27

The foreign exchange market is largely quiet as the market awaits fresh trading incentives and the FOMC statement later in the North American session.  The main exception to the consolidative tone is the Australian dollar, which is posting its largest loss (~1.7%) in a couple of months. The short-term market was caught the wrong-footed when …

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The Week Ahead: FOMC, BOJ and More

2016-04-24

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2016-04-24

The last week of April is eventful. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan hold policy meetings.  The UK, eurozone, and the US provide the first estimates of Q1 GDP. Japan, the eurozone, and Australia report consumer prices, while the US updates the Fed’s preferred (targeted) inflation measure, the …

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Fed FOMC: Who is Hawk, Who is Dove? 2015 Update

fomc voters 2014 dove / hawk scale, dove centrist hawk
Composition of the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC composition), needed to know if the Fed is opting for quantitative easing or not.

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FOMC: Hawks Can Only Squawk But not Vote

2013-02-21

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2013-02-21

Katie Lien Fed Dove Hawk 2013
We remind readers that the voting members of the 2013 FOMC are strongly leaning towards dovish policy (see details of its composition). Dovish economists have a common understanding:...

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Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week September 10

2012-09-10

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2012-09-10

monopoly
  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com Key policy makers are preparing new efforts to address the deterioration of financial and economic conditions.  This is seen reducing tail risks, which allowed the rally in risk assets to be extended, and undermined the dollar.  China is providing new fiscal support.  The ECB announced its new Outright Market …

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Net Speculative Positions, Technical Outlook, Global Markets Ahead of Eventful Week September 3rd

2012-09-03

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2012-09-03

FM TN G3D Chess1
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   The week ahead kicks off what we expect to be a period of intense event risk. The combination of positioning, judging from the futures market and anecdotal reports, and the low implied volatility in currencies and equity markets warn of heightened risk in the period ahead. The week begins …

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SNB only major central bank missing at Jackson Hole, are important SNB decisions looming ?

2012-08-27

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2012-08-27

SNB Chairman Jordan speaks to media during a news conference in Bern
  The Jackson Hole Symposium is traditionally a meeting of global central bankers, here the 2010 attendance list. This year it takes place between August 30 and September 1. Central bankers assemble  The annual economic symposium for central bankers staged by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City begins in Jackson Hole, Colorado (until September 1). …

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FX Technical Outlook, Net Speculative Positions, Global Markets, week August 27

2012-08-27

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2012-08-27

risk
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   There are two main drivers behind the price action in the foreign exchange market and they will likely persist in the days ahead.  First, there continues to be position adjustment ahead of the what promises to be eventful few weeks.  Second, the release of the minutes from the August 1 …

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Brad DeLong on Jackson Hole and Quantitative Easing

2012-08-22

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2012-08-22

Brad DeLong Daedalus
  Berkeley Professor Brad DeLong has delivered a nice allegorical entry in his type pad on a quick Quantitative Easing. Letting speak old greek mythological figures he hides his personal opinion. A half now completely written platonic dialogue on what the Federal Reserve is Doing — or not Doing — Right Now DeLong explains the …

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Fed Violates its Own Inflation Targets. Should QE3 Be Postponed?

2012-08-16

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2012-08-16

Fed's Fav Inflation Expectations WSJ
  At this year’s Jackson Hole symposium, Ben Bernanke promised to help the economy via further easing if  needed. We doubt his promises because because the Fed might contradict their inflation targets. Current levels of around 2 % for the consumer price inflation excluding food and energy (“core CPI“) and the deflator of the GDP …

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Net Speculative Positions and Outlook, week of August 13

2012-08-13

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2012-08-13

Chess 2
Currency Positioning and Outlook, week of August 13 Submitted by Marc Chandler from MarctoMarkets.com   Market positioning in the week ending August 10 suggests that speculators in the futures market generally agree with our assessment that ECB President Draghi’s recent proposal was not a game changer.  The recent pattern continued.  Essentially what this entails is buying …

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Currency Outlook and Net Speculative Positions: Week from July 16

2012-07-16

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2012-07-16

chess
Currency Outlook and Positioning: Week from July 16 Guest Post from Marc Chandler

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Quantitative Easing Indicators, June 2012

2012-06-10

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2012-06-10

5 year FAV Credit Suisse
The main drivers for demand for Swiss francs are the Euro crisis, but even more the behavior of American investors, who go out of the dollar in the fear of further bad US economic data and in the fear of Quantitative Easing. This will push down the dollar and safe-havens like the CHF, gold or the … Continue reading »

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EUR/CHF, A History, Market Betting on Floor: March 2012

2012-03-31

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2012-03-31

eurchf 8 hours
Nomura Touts EUR/CHF Longs Strategists there advise going long around the current levels, they say the floor will not break. They target 1.24. I have to agree. To me, it’s a question of buying low or buying a bit lower. By Adam Button  || March 30, 2012 at 14:50 GMT EUR/CHF Touches One-Month Low Bounced off … Continue reading »

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11) Monetary & Fiscal Policy



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EUR/CHF: A History of Interventions: August 2011: the Top

2011-08-31

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2011-08-31

8-16 gbp
  EUR/CHF Kicked Lower Again Hitting a new low this week of  1.1545 and is  down over 300 pips on the day. The moved largely initiated by a major swiss name earlier apparently in conjunction with a hedge fund. Comments from the Swiss Econ Min over the last hour hardly helping matters, after the govt aid package … Continue reading »

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