Tag Archive: FOMC

Peak Inflation (not what you think)

2022-05-15

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2022-05-15

For once, I find myself in agreement with a mainstream article published over at Bloomberg. Notable Fed supporters without fail, this one maybe represents a change in tone. Perhaps the cheerleaders are feeling the heat and are seeking Jay Powell’s exit for him?

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Collateral Shortage…From *A* Fed Perspective

2022-05-07

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2022-05-07

It’s never just one thing or another. Take, for example, collateral scarcity. By itself, it’s already a problem but it may not be enough to bring the whole system to reverse. A good illustration would be 2017. Throughout that whole year, T-bill rates (4-week, in particular) kept indicating this very shortfall, especially the repeated instances when equivalent bill yields would go below the RRP “floor” and often stay there for prolonged periods....

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Some ‘Core’ ‘Inflation’ Difference(s)

2022-05-06

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2022-05-06

The FOMC meets next week, with everyone everywhere expecting a 50 bps rate hike to be announced on Wednesday. Yesterday’s “unexpected” and “shocking” negative GDP is unlikely to deter anyone on the committee.

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Concocting Inventory

2022-04-11

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2022-04-11

The Census Bureau provided some updated inventory estimates about wholesalers, including its annual benchmark revisions. As to the latter, not a whole lot was changed, a small downward revision right around the peak (early 2021) of the supply shock which is consistent with the GDP estimates for when inventory levels were shrinking fast.

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Goldilocks And The Three Central Banks

2022-04-07

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2022-04-07

This isn’t going to be like the tale of Goldilocks, at least not how it’s usually told. There are three central banks, sure, call them bears if you wish, each pursuing a different set of fuzzy policies. One is clearly hot, the other quite cold, the final almost certainly won’t be “just right.” Rather, this one in the middle simply finds itself…in the middle of the other two.Running red-hot to the point of near-horror, that’s “our” Federal...

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Inversion Is The Real March Madness, Just Don’t Take It Literally

2022-03-22

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2022-03-22

With such low levels of self-awareness, it isn’t surprising that the FOMC’s members continue to pour gasoline on the already-blazing curve fire. March Madness is supposed to be on the courts of college basketball, instead it is playing out more vividly across all financial markets.

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Media Attention All Over FOMC, Market Attention Totally Elsewhere

2022-03-19

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2022-03-19

The Federal Reserve did something today, or actually announced today that it will do something as of tomorrow. And since we’re all conditioned to believe this is the biggest thing ever, I’ll have to add my own $0.02 (in eurodollars, of course, can’t be bank reserves) frustratingly contributing to the very ritual I’m committed to seeing end.We shouldn’t care much about the Fed.

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Another One Inverts, The Retching Cat Reaches Treasuries

2022-03-15

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2022-03-15

As Alan Greenspan’s rate hikes closed in, longer-term Treasury yields were forced upward as the flattening yield curve left no more room for their blatant defiance. By mid-2005, though, the market wasn’t ready to fully price the downside risks which had already led to that worrisome curve shape (very flat). While all sorts of bad potential could be reasonably surmised, none of it seemed imminent or definite.

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Consumer Prices And The Historical Pain(s)

2022-03-12

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2022-03-12

The 1947-48 experience was truly painful, maybe even terrifying. The US and Europe had just come out of a decade when the worst deflationary consequences were so widespread that the period immediately following quickly erupted into the worst conflagration in human history.

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Houston, We Have An Oil (and inventory) Problem

2022-03-07

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2022-03-07

If only, like in the aftermath of the Apollo 13 explosion, we could just radio Houston to get started in figuring out just the way out of our fix. Mission Control would certainly buzz all the right people with the right stuff, summoning the best engineers and scientists from their quiet divans to the frenzied and dangerous work ahead.

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For The Fed, None Of These Details Will Matter

2022-03-06

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2022-03-06

Most people have the impression that these various payroll and employment reports just go into the raw data and count up the number of payrolls and how many Americans are employed. Perhaps the BLS taps the IRS database as fellow feds, or ADP as a private company in the same data business of employment just tallies how many payrolls it processes as the largest provider of back-office labor services.That’s just not how it works, though. In fact,...

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The Red Warning

2022-02-24

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2022-02-24

Now it’s the Russian’s fault. Belligerence surrounding Donbas and Ukraine, raw materials and energy supplies to Europe threatened by Putin’s coiled bear. Why wouldn’t markets grow worried?There’s always a reason why we shouldn’t take these things seriously, or quickly dismiss them out of hand as the temporary product of whichever political fear-of-the-day.

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After Today’s FOMC, Yield Curve Is Already As Flat As It Was In Mar ’18 **Without A Single Rate Hike Yet**

2022-01-28

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2022-01-28

It’s not hard to reason why there continues to be this conflict of interest (rates). On the one hand, impacting the short end of the yield curve, the unemployment rate has taken a tight grip on the FOMC’s limited imagination. The rate hikes are coming and the markets like all mainstream commentary agree that as it stands there’s nothing on the horizon to stop Jay Powell’s hawkishness.

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FX Daily, January 26: Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada Meet as Risk Appetites Stabilize

2022-01-26

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2022-01-26

After a slow and mixed start in Asia, where Australia and India are on holiday, equity markets have turned higher.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is up around 1.9% near midday in Europe, which if sustained would be the biggest gain of the year.  US futures are snapping backing too, with the S&P 500 popping more than  1% and NASDAQ by 2%. 

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The Hawks Circle Here, The Doves Win There

2022-01-26

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2022-01-26

We’ve been here before, near exactly here. On this side of the Pacific Ocean, in the US particularly the situation was said to be just grand. The economy was responding nicely to QE’s 3 and 4 (yes, there were four of them by that point), Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke had said in the middle of 2013 it was becoming more than enough, creating for him and the FOMC coveted breathing space so as to begin tapering both of those ongoing programs.A...

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Gold Price News: Gold Down 1% in Wake of More Hawkish Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes

2022-01-09

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2022-01-09

Gold price fell to $1,808 an ounce in the wake of the release of the minutes of the December Federal Reserve meeting, having hit an intra-day high of $1,829. Silver price fell to $22.72 an ounce from an intra-day high of $23.26.

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FOMC Sets New Course

2021-12-15

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2021-12-15

The Fed delivered what it was expected to do:  double the pace of tapering and project a more aggressive interest rate response with its individual forecasts.  The dollar initially rallied on the headlines, and new sessions highs were recorded, but the price action was a bit of a head-fake, as it were. The greenback's gains were quickly pared,  though it remained above JPY114 ahead of Chair Powell's press conference. The market had already...

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Has the Market Carried the Fed’s Water? Is the Dollar Vulnerable to Buy the Rumor and Sell the Fact?

2021-12-15

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2021-12-15

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a bit of heavier bias against most of the major currencies as the focus turns to today's FOMC meeting, where a clear consensus has emerged in favor of faster tapering and a dot plot pointing to a steeper pace rate hikes.  Emerging market currencies led by Turkey and South Africa are mostly lower. The JP Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index is lower for the third straight session.  The US 10-year Treasury...

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Dollar Starts the Week Bid ahead of the FOMC

2021-12-13

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2021-12-13

Overview: Equities, bonds, and the dollar begin the new week on a firm note.  Japanese, Chinese, Australian, and New Zealand equities advanced in the Asia Pacific region.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day decline, and US futures are 0.25%-0.35% higher.  The US 10-year yield is a little softer at 1.48%. European benchmark yields are mostly 1-2 bp lower, and near 0.71%, the UK Gilt's yield is at a three-month low.  The dollar is rising...

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The Greenback Finds Traction ahead of the Jobs Report

2021-12-03

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2021-12-03

Overview:  The Omicron variant has been detected in more countries, but the capital markets are taking it in stride.  Risk appetites appear to be stabilizing.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the third consecutive session, though Hong Kong and Taiwan markets did not participate in the advance today.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is struggling to hold on to early gains, while US futures are narrowly mixed.  The US 10-year yield is a little near 1.43%,...

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