Tag Archive: FOMC

The Dollar and Rates Come Back Firmer

2024-08-22

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2024-08-22

The US dollar's decline continued yesterday after the steep jobs’ revision and an unusual solid auction of the Treasury's 20-year bond. The minutes from the recent meeting confirmed that the FOMC will begin its easing cycle next month.

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US Benchmark Payroll Revisions Over-Hyped? Dollar may Benefit from Buying on Fact after Being Sold on Rumors

2024-08-21

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2024-08-21

Overview: The preliminary annual revision to US jobs growth is front and center today. It has gotten more play that usual, amid speculation of a historically large revision. Yet, the direct impact on policy may be minimal. Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Powell, acknowledged that the payroll growth may have been overstated. Moreover, the Fed's judgment of the labor market is not based on one element of the multidimensional labor market....

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Is the US CPI Anti-Climactic?

2024-08-14

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2024-08-14

Overview: Today's US CPI is the focus but the bar to a Fed cut next month is low, and it could prove anti-climactic. The more moderate inflation reading creates more space for the central bank to respond to signs of a continued slowing of the US labor market and adopt less restrictive policy. The dollar is mixed as the North American session gets under way. The rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, not a total surprise, but has seen fall 1%....

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Subdued Market Compared to a Week Ago: Is the Dramatic Position Unwinding Over?

2024-08-12

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2024-08-12

Overview: The capital markets have begun the week in subdued fashion. Japanese markets were closed for the Mountain Day celebration, and this week's key events, which include US and UK CPI, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting and potentially its first rate cut. The uncertainty about the market positioning and the extent of the carry-trade may also be dampening activity. The yen and Swiss franc are the weakest of the G10 currencies today,...

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Consolidation Featured

2024-08-08

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2024-08-08

Overview:  Yesterday's poor 10-year note US Treasury auction helped turn the equity market lower and this carried over into Asia Pacific and European activity today. Today, Treasury completes its quarterly refunding with the sale of $25 bln 30-year bonds. The general tone in the foreign exchange market is one of consolidation. Japanese investors were buyers of foreign stocks on bonds last week, according to the latest portfolio flow report, which...

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BOJ Delivers, Sending Greenback to Almost JPY150; Now Over to the Federal Reserve

2024-07-31

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2024-07-31

Overview: A 15 bp hike by the BOJ and plans to halve its bond purchases by the end of FY25 (in March 2026), coupled with a hawkish press conference by Governor Ueda sent the dollar to nearly JPY150, its lowest level in four months. A soft-core inflation reading in Australia send the Aussie lower and is the weakest of the G10 currencies. The others are little changed. The focus is now on the Federal Reserve, which is expected to signal that its...

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Market Boosts Odds of a BOE Rate Cut this Week

2024-07-29

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2024-07-29

Overview: The US dollar is mostly firmer today ahead of what promises to be an eventful week. Sterling is bearing the brunt today, off a little less than half-of-a-cent as expectations creep up of a rate cut this week and Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves plays up the poor state of public finances left by the Conservative government. Sterling (and the euro's) five- and 20-day moving averages have crossed. The yen is mostly within the pre-weekend...

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Q3 Cyclical Outlook

2024-06-25

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2024-06-25

Growth peaked on a quarter over quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q3 last year at 4.9%. The preferred reading is on an annual basis where growth peaked in Q4 of last year at 3.13%. Growth in Q1 was 2.88% and growth in Q2 has risen some and is trending at right about 3%. 

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Self-Inflicted Wounds in Europe and Japan Help the Greenback Shrug Off the Drag of Lower Rates

2024-06-14

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2024-06-14

Overview: The dollar is bid. What makes its performance standout is that it is taking place as US rates have fallen. The US 10-year yield is near 4.20%, the lowest in more than two months. The two-year yield is near 4.67%. It has fallen every session this week for a cumulative decline of more than 20 bp. It is not so much that constructive developments took week, but that Europe and Japan are suffering from self-inflicted injury. Macron's call for...

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Dollar Comes Back Bid

2024-06-13

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2024-06-13

Overview: The dollar fell alongside US rates yesterday after the softer than expected CPI. The move on both rates and the dollar were pared after the FOMC meeting which held rates steady as widely expected, but the median dot now anticipated one cut this year rather than three. The dollar has recovered more ground today and is trading with a slightly firmer bias G10 currencies. However, trading is quiet and mostly narrow ranges have dominated....

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UK CPI Disappoints

2024-05-22

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2024-05-22

Overview: A hawkish hold by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and a firmer than expected UK CPI reading have allowed the New Zealand dollar and sterling to show resilience in the face of the US dollar's broadly firmer tone. And even there, the Kiwi and pound have seen their early gains pared. The Swiss franc is the weakest of the G10 currencies today and has fallen to a new 12-month low against the euro. Emerging market currencies are mixed. Central...

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Japan Drives Home Message

2024-05-02

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2024-05-02

Overview: The US dollar is mixed, but the spotlight is on the Japanese yen. It appears that with the market challenging Monday's intervention, Japanese officials entered the market shortly after the US equity market closed yesterday, as the Asia Pacific session got underway and sold dollars again. Initial estimates suggest the intervention amount was two-thirds of Monday's. The timing caught the markets wrongfooted. Tokyo markets are closed Friday...

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Waller Pushes on Open Door: Push for Patience Lifts the Dollar, Complicating Japanese Efforts

2024-03-28

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2024-03-28

Overview: Comments by Fed Governor Waller, urging patience on rates and wanting more evidence that price pressures are moderating has helped the greenback extend its recent gains. The yen is the notable exception as the fear of intervention has restrained the dollar bulls. Poor German data, including a sharp 1.9% drop in February retail sales, the fourth consecutive monthly decline, underscored the euro's negative divergence, and the single...

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Dollar Extends Gains Against the Yen but Broadly Firmer Ahead of the FOMC

2024-03-20

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2024-03-20

Overview: The US dollar remains bid ahead of the outcome of today's FOMC meeting. No change in policy is expected, but the forward guidance, partly delivered in the updated projections, is the focus. In the last iteration (December), the Fed "dot" was for three rate cuts this year. Japanese markets were closed for a national holiday today but dollar's gains against the yen have been extended and the greenback is nearing the peak seen in...

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Greenback Surges after BOJ Hikes and Ends YCC and RBA Delivers a Dovish Hold

2024-03-19

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2024-03-19

The US dollar is surging today against most of the G10 currencies, and although the intraday momentum is stretched ahead of start of the North American session, there may be little incentive to resist before the end of the FOMC meeting tomorrow.

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Heightened Speculation of a BOJ Move Tomorrow did not Stop the Nikkei from Rallying or Yen from Slipping

2024-03-18

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2024-03-18

Overview: The US dollar is trading with a mostly softer bias against the G10 currencies. The notable exceptions are the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Ironically, speculation of a Bank of Japan rate hike appears to have increased, while there is a risk that the Swiss National Bank cuts rates this week. The Norwegian krone is the strongest of the major currencies. The central bank meets later this week but is widely expected to stand pat. The...

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Euro’s Recovery to $1.09 Looks Vulnerable while Yen Falls to New Lows for the Week After Strong Pay Raises Confirmed

2024-03-15

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2024-03-15

At the end of last week, the derivatives market was again pricing in nearly four Fed cuts this year, but this week's data have seen expectations re-converge with the Fed's three rate cuts signaled in December, while cutting the odds of June hike to the lowest in the more than four months.

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Strong US Retail Sales may Help Extend the Dollar’s Recovery

2024-03-14

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2024-03-14

Overview: We have put emphasis on today's US retail sales report. A recovery from the weather-induced weakness in January should underscore the resilience of US demand after another 200k jobs were created and personal income jumped 1%.

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China’s CSI 300 Rises for Seventh Consecutive Session and Offshore Yuan Strengthens for the Sixth Session

2024-02-21

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2024-02-21

Overview: The dollar is trading quietly after being sold yesterday. It is still soft against the dollar bloc and the Swiss franc but is firmer against the other G10 currencies. Narrow ranges have dominated. Emerging market currencies are mixed, with central European currencies and the Taiwan dollar trading softer. The offshore Chinese yuan is firmer for the sixth consecutive session. The highlights of today's North American session features minutes...

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US Tech Sell-Off Challenges Risk Appetites Ahead of the FOMC

2024-01-31

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2024-01-31

Overview: Ahead of the US Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement and the outcome of the FOMC meeting, the dollar is trading higher against all the G10 currencies. With US high-flying tech stocks posting steep losses after disappointing earnings reports, the currencies most sensitive to risk-appetites, the dollar bloc and the Norwegian krone are the weakest. Emerging market currencies are mixed. The South African rand, Philippine peso, and...

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