Tag Archive: Eurozone Industrial Production

The global economy doesn’t care about the ECB (nor any central bank)

The monetary mouse. After years of Mario Draghi claiming everything under the sun available with the help of QE and the like, Christine Lagarde came in to the job talking a much different approach. Suddenly, chastened, Europe’s central bank needed assistance. So much for “do whatever it takes.”They did it – and it didn’t take.Lagarde’s outreach was simply an act of admitting reality.

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FX Daily, April 16: Markets Brace for another Jump in US Weekly Jobless Claims

Overview:  Equity losses in the US appeared to drag most Asia Pacific markets lower today, with China and India the notable exceptions.  European bourses are higher, and the only energy sector is a drag on the Dow Jones Stoxx 600,  which is around 1% higher in late morning turnover, while US shares are also trading firmer.  Asia Pacific 10-year benchmark yields eased. 

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FX Daily, March 12: Trump Dump as Market Turns to ECB

Overview: After the Bank of England and the UK Treasury announced both monetary and fiscal support, the focus turns to the ECB, but the proximity of the US Congressional recess (next week) without strong fiscal measures being in place sucked the oxygen away from other issues. President Trump's national address in the Asian session failed to reassure investors.

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FX Daily, February 12: The Greenback Slips in Subdued Activity

Investors appear to be increasingly looking past the latest coronavirus from China as new afflictions slow. Despite the soggy close of US equities yesterday, Asia Pacific bourses are nearly all higher, led by more than 1% gains in Singapore and Thailand. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is at new record highs, led by consumer discretionary and materials sectors.

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FX Daily, January 15: Phase 1 Trade Deal Shifts Terrain of US-China Rivalry

News that US tariffs on China will remain until through at least the November US election and continued US attempts to stymie China (e.g., more curbs on Huawei under consideration and stepped up efforts to force it to cut subsidies to business) have taken some momentum from the push into risk assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day advance today, with only Australian equities among the large regional markets able to sustain upticks. 

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FX Daily, December 12: Enguard Lagarde

With the FOMC meeting delivered no surprises, attention turns to the ECB meeting as the UK go to the polls. Lagarde will hold her first press conference as ECB president today, and it will naturally command attention. Equities are advancing today, and tech appears to be leading the way. In Asia Pacific, Taiwan and South Korea rallied more than 1%, while the Hang Seng gapped higher to almost its best level in three weeks.

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FX Daily, November 13: Investors Temper Euphoria

Overview: The recent rise in equity markets and backing up in yields spurred many observers to upgrade their macroeconomic outlooks rather than the other way around. Yet we continue to see may worrisome signs. It is not just trade, though, of course, that is part of it. Sentiment itself is fragile and will likely follow prices.

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FX Daily, October 14: Optimism Took the Weekend Off

Overview: Japanese and Canadian markets are on holiday today. While the US bond market is closed, equities maintain their regular hours today. Asia Pacific equities rallied, led by 1% of more gains in China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Thailand. The buying did not continue in Europe, and after a 2.3% rally before the weekend, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is about 0.75% lower in the European morning.

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The Scientism of Trade Wars

One year ago, last October, the IMF published the update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO) for 2018. Like many, the organization began to talk more about trade wars and protectionism. It had become a topic of conversation more than concern. Couched as only downside risks, the IMF still didn’t think the fuss would amount to all that much. Especially not with world’s economy roaring under globally synchronized growth. Even though there were...

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The Obligatory Europe QE Review

If Mario Draghi wanted to wow them, this wasn’t it. Maybe he couldn’t, handcuffed already by what seems to have been significant dissent in the ranks. And not just the Germans this time. Widespread dissatisfaction with what is now an idea whose time may have finally arrived.

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FX Daily, September 12: Focus on the ECB, while the Dollar Slips below CNY7.09

Overview: Some gestures in the US-China trade spat have given the market the reason to do what it had been doing, and that is taking on more risk. Equities are higher in Asia Pacific and opened in Europe higher before slipping. The MSCI Asia Pacific and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 are advancing for the fourth consecutive week.

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A Bigger Boat

For every action there is a reaction. Not only is that Sir Isaac Newton’s third law, it’s also a statement about human nature. Unlike physics where causes and effects are near simultaneous, there is a time component to how we interact. In official capacities, even more so.

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Some Brief European Leftovers

Some further odds and ends of European data. Beginning with Continent-wide Industrial Production. Germany is leading the system lower, but it’s not all just Germany. And though manufacturing and trade are thought of as secondary issues in today’s services economies, the GDP estimates appear to confirm trade in goods as still an important condition and setting for all the rest.

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FX Daily, August 14: Markets Paring Exaggerated Response to US Blink

The US cut its list of Chinese goods that will be hit with a 10% tariff at the start of next month by a little roe than half, delaying the others until the mid-December. This spurred a near-euphoric response by market participants throughout the capital markets. However, as the news was digested, it did not seem as much of a game-changer as it may have initially.

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Why You Should Care Germany More and More Looks Like 2009

What if Germany’s economy falls into recession? Unlike, say, Argentina, you can’t so easily dismiss German struggles as an exclusive product of German factors. One of the most orderly and efficient systems in Europe and all the world, when Germany begins to struggle it raises immediate questions about everywhere else.

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FX Daily, July 12: Greenback Limps into the Weekend

Overview:  Higher than expected US CPI and the second tepid reception to a US bond auction this week pushed US yields higher and helped stall the equity momentum. Asia Pacific yields, especially in Australia and New Zealand jumped 8-10 bp in response, and Spanish and Portuguese bonds bore the burden in Europe. 

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FX Daily, June 13: Financial Statecraft or Whack-a-Mole

Overview: After roiling the markets by threatening escalating tariffs on Mexico, US President Trump has threatened China that if Xi does not meet him and return to the positions that the US claims it had previously, he will through on imposing tariffs to the remaining goods the US buys from China that have not already been penalized. 

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FX Daily, April 12: Euro Bid Above $1.13 for the First Time this Month

Overview:  The consolidative week in the capital markets is drawing to a close.  Equity markets are narrowly mixed.  In Asia, most indices outside of the greater China (China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) edged higher, leaving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slightly lower on the week.  The MSCI Emerging Markets Index snapped a ten-day rally yesterday and is little changed so far today. 

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The World Economy’s Industrial Downswing

As economic data for 2019 comes in, the numbers continue to suggest more slowing especially in the goods economy. Perhaps what happened during that October-December window was a soft patch. Even if that was the case, we should still expect second and third order effects to follow along from it.

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