Tag Archive: Eurozone Gross Domestic Product

FX Daily, June 6: US Tariff Threats on Mexico Compete with ECB for Attention

Overview: The implications of President Trump's assessment that there has not been "nearly enough" progress in negotiations with Mexico that would avert the tariff on June 10 competing for investors' attention, which had been squarely today's ECB meeting. Minutes before Trump spoke Fitch cut its sovereign rating for Mexico to BBB from BBB+, while Moody's cut its outlook to negative from stable.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 15: Angst Continues

Overview: Disappointing Chinese April data spurred speculation that more stimulus will be forthcoming and bolsters hopes that a trade deal with the US by the end of next month helped Asian Pacific equities advance for the first time this week.  Indonesia, which reported a record trade deficit on the back of collapsing exports (-13.1% year-over-year in April, nearly twice the decline expected after a 10% fall in March) kept the pressure on its...

Read More »

What’s Germany’s GDP Without Factories

It was a startling statement for the time. Mario Draghi had only been on the job as President of the European Central Bank for a few months by then, taking over for the hapless Jean Claude-Trichet who was unceremoniously retired at the end of October 2011 amidst “unexpected” chaos and turmoil. It was Trichet who contributed much to the tumult, having idiotically raised rates (twice) during 2011 even as warning signs of crisis and economic weakness...

Read More »

Update on euro area economic activity

The balance of risks to growth in the region is still tilted to the downside.The big question about the euro area economy is when the bottom of the slowdown will be reached. A rebound was already expected in Q4 2018, but at the start of this year there are still few signs of recovery. Flash composite PMI numbers for the region declined by 0.4 points to 50.7 in January, the weakest level since July 2013.

Read More »

Just In Time For The Circus

Just in time to follow closely upon yesterday’s European circus, IHS Markit piles on with more of the same forward-looking indications looking forward the wrong way. Mario Draghi says the ECB is ending QE, good for him. The central bank will do this despite balanced risks rebalancing in a different place. The more bad news and numbers stack up the more “they” say it’s nothing just transitory roughness.

Read More »

The Direction Is (Globally) Clear

It is definitely one period that they got wrong. Still, IHS Markit’s Composite PMI for the US economy has been one of the better forward-looking indicators around. Tying to real GDP, this blend of manufacturing and services sentiment has predicted the general economic trend in the United States pretty closely. The latter half of 2015 was the big exception.

Read More »

Global PMI’s Hang In There And That’s The Bad News

At this particular juncture eight months into 2018, the only thing that will help is abrupt and serious acceleration. On this side of May 29, it is way past time for it to get real. The global economy either synchronizes in a major, unambiguous breakout or markets retrench even more.

Read More »

The Currency of PMI’s

Markit Economics released the flash results from several of its key surveys. Included is manufacturing in Japan (lower), as well as composites (manufacturing plus services) for the United States and Europe. Within the EU, Markit offers details for France and Germany.

Read More »

What Really Happened In Europe

The primary example of globally synchronized growth has been Europe. Nowhere has more hope been attached to shifting fortunes. The Continent, buoyed by the persistence of central bankers like Mario Draghi, has not just accelerated it is actually booming. Or so they say.

Read More »

FX Daily, May 02: Confident Fed Key to New Found Respect for the Dollar

There is a brief respite in the powerful short squeeze that has fueled the dollar's dramatic recovery. The greenback which was nearly friendless a month ago now has many suitors. It is higher on the year against all the major currencies but the yen (~2.6%), the Norwegian krone (~1.6%) and sterling ~0.9%). It is virtually flat against the euro.

Read More »

FX Daily, March 07: Renewed Threat of Trade War Makes Investors Angry

In response to the resignation of one of the few "globalist" advisers in the US Administration, the resignation Cohn has sent ripples through the capital markets. Stocks have been marked down across the world. The prospects of a trade war are also not good for growth and it may be adding to the pressure on yields.

Read More »

Switzerland: So far so good

According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO)’s quarterly estimates, Swiss real GDP rose by 0.6% q-o-q in Q4 (2.4% q-o-q annualised; 1.9% y-o-y), above consensus expectations (0.5%). The Swiss economy expanded by 1.0% in 2017 overall, in line with our own forecast. This comes after GDP growth of 1.4% in 2016 and 1.2% in 2015.

Read More »

FX Daily, February 14: Investors Remain Uneasy even as Equities Stabilize

There is an unease that continues to hang over the market. It is as if a shoe fell last week, and most investors seem to be waiting for the other shoe to drop. It is hard to imagine the kind of body blow that the equities took last week without some kind of follow through and knock-on effects. Moreover, the focus today on US CPI may prove for nought.

Read More »

FX Daily, January 30: Dollar and Bonds Stabilize; Equities not Yet

The US dollar is paring yesterday's gains, and the 10-year Treasury yield has slipped back below the 2.70% level after pushing 2.73% briefly. European bonds have also eased, with yields one-two basis points lower. It is thus far a mild Turn Around Tuesday but suggests that the market psychology that has driven the dollar lower and yields higher persistently since mid-December have not been broken.

Read More »

Euro area: The sky is the limit

Momentum in the euro area picked up further at the end of the year. The flash composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) increased to 58.0 in December, from 57.5 in November, above consensus expectations (57.2). The improvement was once again broad-based across sectors.

Read More »

FX Daily, December 07: Equities and Oil Stabilize

Global equities are stabilizing today after the recent downside pressure. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped an eight-day slump with a 0.4% gain, led by a rebound in Tokyo and India. European markets are firm, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 up around 0.25% near midday in London. All sectors are higher but telecom and real estate are performing best, while energy and health care are laggards.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 14: Euro Rides High After German GDP

Sterling is trading in the lower end of yesterday's range and has been confined to about a quarter a cent on either side of $1.31. On the other hand, the euro has pushed a bit through GBP0.8950 to reach its best level since October 26. Sweden also reported softer than expected October inflation.

Read More »

Europe Is Booming, Except It’s Not

European GDP rose 0.6% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2017, the eighteenth consecutive increase for the Continental (EA 19) economy. That latter result is being heralded as some sort of achievement, though the 0.6% is also to a lesser degree. The truth is that neither is meaningful, and that Europe’s economy continues toward instead the abyss.

Read More »

FX Daily, October 31: Month-End Leaves Market at Crossroads

Global equity markets are closing another strong month. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed on the day, but up 4.3% in October, the 10th consecutive monthly advance. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is also flattish today, but up 1.6% on the month. It is the second monthly advance after a June-August swoon. The benchmark is closing in on the high for the year set in May.

Read More »

FX Daily, September 07: ECB Focus for Sure, but not Only Game in Town

The US dollar is trading broadly lower. The ECB meeting looms large. Many, like ourselves, expected that when Draghi said in July that the asset purchases would be revisited in the fall, it to meant after the summer recess, not a legalistic definition of when fall begins. Still, there have been some reports, citing unnamed sources close to the ECB, that have played down such expectations, and warn a decision on next year’s intentions may not be...

Read More »
Page 112