Tag Archive: Euro crisis

Otmar Issing’s new book on the euro crisis

2012-08-10

We well remember when the über-bailouter of the Financial Times Wolfgang Münchau claimed that except some old economy professors like Otmar Issing nobody in Germany would like to abolish the euro. According to Münchau the euro can be saved only via a fiscal and a banking union. The response to Münchau’s post could be … Continue reading...

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Guest Post: Six Reasons Why Italy May Exit the Euro Before Spain; Ultimate Occupy Movement

2012-07-24

by George Dorgan

2012-07-24

Six Reasons Why Italy May Exit Before Spain 1) Rise of the Five Star Movement 2) 44% of Italians view the euro negatively, only 30% favorably. That is biggest negative spread in the eurozone. In Spain more view the euro positively than negative, albeit by a small 4 percentage point spread.

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The End of Swiss and Japanese Deflation

2012-07-12

by George Dorgan

2012-07-12

At a time of speculations about global deflation, we show an interesting and very different aspect. Our CPI and wage data comparison among different developed countries, shows that Switzerland and Japan will see both inflation, whereas other countries like Australia will see disinflation.

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German constitutional court needs 3 months to decide about the injunction

2012-07-11

by George Dorgan

2012-07-11

The German constitutional court will need up to 3 months for the injunction. Weidmann's critic on the ESM in detail. Estimations of German liability between 900 bln. and 2 trillion EUR.

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The win of the pro-bailout parties in the Greek elections was no win for the SNB

2012-06-25

by George Dorgan

2012-06-25

The win for the pro-bailout parties in the Greek elections was no win for the Swiss National Bank (SNB), even if the fear of an immediate bank-run and extreme money flows into Switzerland are avoided. Also the fact that QE3 is not coming in the next weeks did not help the SNB.

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Eurobonds, fiscal union or banking union are all pure utopia

Eurobonds are light years away.Germany wants the following order: 1) Euro Plus Pact 2) Fiscal Compact 3) ESM 4) Political union 5) Fiscal union 6) Eurobonds

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The other risk for the SNB: Will German Bund yields double ?

2012-06-20

by George Dorgan

2012-06-20

In the latest post we started discussing the implications of a German euro exit for the Swiss National Bank, this time we will look on another risk: The rising German Bund yields.

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The Swiss National Bank and the EUR/CHF floor have become a political football

2012-06-10

by George Dorgan

2012-06-10

How the SNB Chairman Jordan has invited hedge funds and smart investors to a risk-free, high-return guaranteed investment in Swiss francs A wrap-up of Swiss newspapers for non-German literates In parallel to the start of the UEFA Euro 2012, the Swiss National Bank and its policy towards the EUR/CHF exchange rate has become a political …

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The “Sell in May, come back in October” effect and its equivalent for the SNB

2012-06-09

by George Dorgan

2012-06-09

The "Sell in May, come back in October" effect It is the same seasonal anomaly nearly every year: The statistically flawed (see here and here) Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report delivers some good winter readings with 200K new jobs, this time additionally fuelled by a weather effect; biased data that let hard-core Keynesian policy makers doubt Okun's law. Consequently the stock markets rally …

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Why is the Swiss safe-haven so completely different from the Yen ?

2012-04-27

by George Dorgan

2012-04-27

4 future scenarios for the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen For many people it is astonishing that the Swiss franc continuously rises against the euro, especially when markets are up. Is the CHF no safe-haven any more ? This year the Japanese yen has strongly fallen against the major currencies. Together with the upturn …

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Why the Euro Crisis may last another 15 years

2012-03-25

by George Dorgan

2012-03-25

home prices ireland, spain, uk, france, usa, germany, switzerland 1990-2008

Abstract In the following article we will explain which types of crisis occur in the euro area and will argue that this crisis will last at least another fifteen years. (1) Competitiveness crisis: Before the euro introduction peripheral countries regularly saw their currency depreciate against the German Mark and helped them to increase their competitiveness. …

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The new European Save-Havens: Trade SEK/CHF and NOK/CHF

2012-01-10

by George Dorgan

2012-01-10

After the announcement of the floor in the EUR/CHF pair, many predicted the Swedish and the Norwegian Krone to take the place of the Swiss Franc as European save-haven against the Euro turmoil (http://on.ft.com/pKSJ1V). Both countries possess a low level of debt, positive trade balance and very competitive economies.

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SNB Abandons Intervention (June 2010)

2010-06-22

by George Dorgan

2010-06-22

Jun. 22nd 2010 Extracts from the history of the Swiss Franc (June 2010) The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has apparently admitted (temporary) defeat in its battle to hold down the value of the Franc. ” ‘The SNB has reached its limits and if the market wants to see a franc at 1.35 versus the euro, … Continue reading »

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