Tag Archive: equities

FX Daily, April 24: Dramatic Response to French Election

2017-04-24

The results of the first round of the French election spurred a dramatic response in the capital markets. Our thesis that there is no populist-nationalist wave sweeping the world is supported by the previous results in Austria, the Netherlands, and now France.

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Great Graphic: Emerging Market Stocks

2017-04-01

by Marc Chandler

2017-04-01

MSCI Emerging Market Index is up 12.25% here in Q1. The index is approaching long-standing technical objectives. Look for profit-taking ahead of quarter-end as fund managers rebalance.

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FX Daily, February 27: Asia Stumbles, Europe Recovers, Waiting for Trump

2017-02-27

by Marc Chandler

2017-02-27

The late recovery in US equities before the weekend did little good for Asian markets. Nearly all the Asian equity markets moved lower, led by the 1.0% decline in Japan's Topix. It was the third successive loss for the Topix, which is the long losing streak of the year so far. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.6%, further pushing it off the 17-month high seen last week.

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FX Daily, February 20: Marking Time on Monday

2017-02-20

by Marc Chandler

2017-02-20

FX Performance February 20 2017 Movers and Shakers

US markets are closed for the Presidents' Day holiday, but it hasn't prevented its pre-weekend gains giving a bullish tone to global equities. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ recovered from early weakness to close at new record levels before the weekend. Global equity markets are following suit today.

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FX Daily, November 10: US Dollar, Equities, and Commodities Firmer as Reflation Trade Takes Hold

2016-11-10

by Marc Chandler

2016-11-10

FX Performance, November 10 2016 Movers and Shakers

GBP/CHF rates spiked by almost two cents during Wednesday’s trading, providing those clients holding Sterling with some of the best rates they’ve seen in the past few weeks. This move came following confirmation that Donald Trump had won the race for the White House, news which sent shockwaves through the market. How the outcome will affect the global markets is difficult to analyse at this point but could yesterday’s positive spike indicate better...

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FX Weekly Preview: Yellen Pushes Divergence Front and Center

2016-08-28

by Marc Chandler

2016-08-28

The summer dynamics of the capital markets has changed by the enhanced prospects of a Fed hike. Equity markets and other risk assets look particularly vulnerable. Sterling may do better against the euro than the dollar.

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Great Graphic: Equities Since Brexit

2016-07-15

by Marc Chandler

2016-07-15

Since the UK voted to leave the EU, emerging market equities have outperformed equities from the developed markets. This Great Graphic, composed on Bloomberg, shows the MSCI Emerging Market equities (yellow line) and the MSCI World Index of developed equities (white line).

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Gold, Bonds and Negative Interest Rates Give SNB a Q1 profit

2016-04-28

by George Dorgan

2016-04-28

SNB Results Q1 2016: Two thirds of SNB profit comes from Gold. Deflation helps with higher bonds prices and profit on negative interest rates.

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Swiss National Bank: Composition of Reserves (Assets) and Investment Strategy

The Q1/2016 update on the SNB investment strategy and its assets. The Swiss National Bank is a passive conservative investor. As opposed to other investors, the exposure in currencies is as important as the strategic asset allocation according asset classes (bonds, equities, cash, real estate). The importance of currencies is one reason why the SNB is often called a hedge fund, the second the volatility of gains and losses.

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FX Daily April 25: Global Tensions Lessened, but Bound to Increase Ahead of June FOMC Meeting

2016-04-25

by Marc Chandler

2016-04-25

We expect the FOMC statement this week to recognize the improvement in the global conditions that have been an increasing worry for officials over Q1. At the same, time the soft patch of the US economy is undeniable. We suspect the Fed will look past the weakness of the US economy. The strength of the … Continue reading...

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SNB Q1/2014 Results: 1.7% annualized Yield on Seigniorage, 2% annualized Loss on FX Rate Change

results estimate snb 2013 fx gov. bonds corp. bonds gold stocks interest incime stab. fund total

The main task of a central bank occupied with QEE (quantitative easing or exchange intervention) is to obtain higher gains on seigniorage than it loses with its "ever appreciating" currency. Otherwise its equity capital would be absorbed.

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In Which Positions Does the SNB Win and Where Does it Lose Money: Details on the Q3 Results

2013-10-30

by George Dorgan

2013-10-30

UPDATE October 31, The official press release focused on the results for Q1 to Q3. The loss was 6.4 billion after a 7.3 bln. CHF loss in the first two quarters. Over all three quarters especially gold and the yen weakened the central bank’s positions. For the third quarter, it means that income was positive … Continue reading »

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SNB Q2/2013 Composition of Reserves

2013-08-02

by George Dorgan

2013-08-02

We regularly publish the SNB asset structure by currency, rating & duration, they might be a template for the tactical asset allocation in these dimensions (CHF certainly excluded) for other fixed income and/or rather conservative asset managers. here the newest data Total Balance Sheet and Liabilities The total balance sheet size decreased from 511 bln. …

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Our Detailed Estimate of SNB Q2 Results: 17 Billion Francs Loss, The Reality 18 Billion

2013-07-30

by George Dorgan

2013-07-30

UPDATE: July 30th, 2013: Our estimate for the quarterly loss missed the reality by 1 billion francs. The quarter results: 18.3 billion francs loss. The loss for H1 was 7.3 billion CHF. July 1st 2013: We estimate that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) obtained a loss of 17.3 billion francs in the second quarter 2013. … Continue reading »

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SNB Q1 Results: Bottom-Fishing Cheap Yen, Increases Equity Share with Gains and Margin Debt

2013-04-30

by George Dorgan

2013-04-30

We regularly publish the SNB asset structure by currency, rating & duration, they might be a template for the tactical asset allocation in these dimensions (CHF certainly excluded) for other fixed income and/or rather conservative asset managers. Composition of SNB Forex Reserves, Q1/2013 With the strong results of 11.2 billion francs, the SNB reduced the …

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Composition of SNB Reserves Q4, 2012, Yield on Investment

2013-03-07

by George Dorgan

2013-03-07

We regularly publish the SNB asset structure by currency, rating & duration, they might be a template for the tactical asset allocation in these dimensions (CHF certainly excluded) for other fixed income asset managers. Moreover we publish the yield on investment. Composition of SNB Forex Reserves, Q4 2012 The Swiss National Bank (SNB) saw …

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Trade Like a Central Bank: Buy EUR/USD at 1.24 and sell at 1.30! .. SNB

2012-10-31

by George Dorgan

2012-10-31

Composition of SNB Forex Reserves, Q3 2012 The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reduced the share of euros in the third quarter substantially from 60% in Q2 to 48% in Q3 and increased dollar and pound positions. The SNB bought 80 billion euros or more when the common currency was trading around 1.24$, especially at the end of …

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Marc Faber: Assets are overpriced, we short metals and Brent now

2012-10-11

by George Dorgan

2012-10-11

As we predicted on October 5 or one day later on DailyFX, metals have started their descent, silver lost one dollar, from levels around 35$ last week to 34$ now. Marc Faber joins our view and says that asset prices are quite vulnerable. “I’m not 100% in cash, for the simple reason that I could … Continue reading »

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