Tag Archive: ECB

What’s this crazy movement in EUR/CHF ? SNB Floor Hike ?

2012-09-10

On Friday there was a big movement in the EUR/CHF. First it went up to 1.2154, fell later down to 1.2080 in the main American trading and rose again to 1.21 in the low-volume trading time. We repeat our entry from Friday, because we continuously updated the post after new developments, e.g. after the … Continue reading »

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The Big Swiss Faustian Bargain: Differences between SNB, ECB and Fed Money Printing Explained

2012-09-03

by George Dorgan

2012-09-03

In this post we show that the risks the Fed, the ECB and the Bundesbank incur are far smaller than the one the Swiss SNB takes. The Fed has “just” an inflation risk, that could cost 200 billion US$, 1.2% of US GDP. The ECB and Bundesbank have the risk that the euro zone splits … Continue reading »

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The End of ECB Rate Cuts or Draghi against Weidmann to be Continued..

2012-08-30

by George Dorgan

2012-08-30

Even in the unlikely case of a fiscal union, the conflict “Draghi against Weidmann”, between the ECB and the Bundesbank will continue for years. The ECB mandate and european inflation figures do not allow for excessive ECB rate cuts or for state financing via the printing press, but Draghi wants to help his struggling …

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Why the euro has recovered? or are Markit PMI really reliable?

2012-08-23

by George Dorgan

2012-08-23

Here a follow-up of our contribution on Seeking Alpha written on August 15th, with the title “Are Markit PMIs really reliable?“. We recommended to go long the euro and the Swiss franc against the US dollar and sterling, because the Markit PMIs were not in line with trade balance data. Previously we suggested in … Continue...

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How former central bankers stepped up against the central banks

Central Bankers against Central Bankers Banned Weber Stark Issing

There are already three former European central bankers who criticize more or less openly the European Central Bank (ECB).

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Otmar Issing’s new book on the euro crisis

2012-08-10

by George Dorgan

2012-08-10

We well remember when the über-bailouter of the Financial Times Wolfgang Münchau claimed that except some old economy professors like Otmar Issing nobody in Germany would like to abolish the euro. According to Münchau the euro can be saved only via a fiscal and a banking union. The response to Münchau’s post could be … Continue reading...

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Full text Spanish banks bailout: Memorandum of Understanding

2012-07-20

by George Dorgan

2012-07-20

Here the full text of the European’ Commission’s Memorandum of Understanding with Spain regarding the bailout of the Spanish banking sector released earlier today. Memorandum of Understanding on Financial-Sector Policy Conditionally

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Currency Outlook and Net Speculative Positions: Week from July 16

2012-07-16

by Marc Chandler

2012-07-16

Currency Outlook and Positioning: Week from July 16 Guest Post from Marc Chandler

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Wolfgang Münchau, FT: Merkel was the winner of the Euro summit

2012-07-02

by George Dorgan

2012-07-02

Wolfgang Münchau endorsed many of our arguments Wolfgang Münchau, Financial Times, has endorsed many of our arguments of our Friday's opinion about the Euro summit where we stated that there was nothing really new. Münchau even claims that "The real victor in Brussels was Merkel."

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At the Euro summit there was nothing really new. What was the party about ?

2012-06-29

by George Dorgan

2012-06-29

At the euro summit today there was essentially nothing what was really surprising. We wonder what markets are so excited about.

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The Northern Euro introduction: A retrospective from the year 2030

2012-05-20

by George Dorgan

2012-05-20

A retrospective from the year 2030 on two decades of failed european integration policy and 10 years of successful disintegration policy The following essay shows that currency regimes come and go over the time. Nothing is stable with the time, especially the use of a currency. What has never happened in history is the use …

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Italy: About the Hypocrisy of Politicians and the Blindness of the English-Speaking Financial Papers

2012-05-19

by George Dorgan

2012-05-19

Debt Servicing Costs Italy vs. GDP change

Just a little wrap-up of two tweets read in 5 minutes, to which I finally added a bit more out of my recent Tweets. One Tweet: The British finance minister Osborne has emphasized that the euro zone needs to protect its peripheral economies. “The whole of Europe needs to become more competitive and productive. That …

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Why the Euro Crisis may last another 15 years

2012-03-25

by George Dorgan

2012-03-25

home prices ireland, spain, uk, france, usa, germany, switzerland 1990-2008

Abstract In the following article we will explain which types of crisis occur in the euro area and will argue that this crisis will last at least another fifteen years. (1) Competitiveness crisis: Before the euro introduction peripheral countries regularly saw their currency depreciate against the German Mark and helped them to increase their competitiveness. …

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Written in February 2012: Will the EUR/CHF never rise over 1.22 or 1.23 again?

Our analysis from February 2012 shows astonishing accurateness: It predicted that the euro would not rise against CHF and that the commodity currencies were overvalued and subject to correction. Basic foreign exchange theory, the SNB price stability mandate and strong fundamentals for Switzerland and bad ones for the peripheral countries of the euro zone speak for the thesis that the EUR/CHF exchange rate might never go over the level of around...

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The new European Save-Havens: Trade SEK/CHF and NOK/CHF

2012-01-10

by George Dorgan

2012-01-10

After the announcement of the floor in the EUR/CHF pair, many predicted the Swedish and the Norwegian Krone to take the place of the Swiss Franc as European save-haven against the Euro turmoil (http://on.ft.com/pKSJ1V). Both countries possess a low level of debt, positive trade balance and very competitive economies.

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Jürgen Stark’s resignation and the ECB 2005 warning about labor cost divergence in the Euro-zone

2011-12-18

by George Dorgan

2011-12-18

The Wirtschaftswoche reports about the real reasons of ECB Chief economist Jürgen Stark’s resignation. The reasons are rather political, namely a protest against European governments:

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