Tag Archive: Crude Oil

Weekly Technical Analysis: 02/04/2018 – Gold, WTI Oil Futures, GER30 Index, USD/JPY

The USDCHF pair attempted to breach 0.9581 level yesterday but it returns to move below it now, which keeps the bearish trend scenario valid until now, supported by stochastic move within the overbought areas, waiting to head towards 0.9488 as a first target.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 26/03/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CHF

The USDCHF pair provided negative trades after 0.9488 proved its strength against the recent positive attempts, to keep the bearish trend scenario valid efficiently in the upcoming period, supported by the EMA50 that pushes negatively on the price, waiting to test 0.9373 initially.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 19/03/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CHF

The USDCHF pair leaned well on 0.9488 level to resume its positive trading, on its way towards our first waited target at 0.9581, as the price moves inside bullish channel that appears on the above chart, supported by the EMA50 that protects trading inside this channel, noting that breaching the targeted level will extend the pair’s gains to reach 0.9675.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 12/03/2018 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, Gold

The USDCHF pair traded negatively yesterday to break 0.9488 and settles below it, which stops the positive effect of the recently mentioned bullish pattern and push the price to decline again, targeting heading towards 0.9373 initially.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 05/03/2018 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP, AUDUSD

The USDCHF pair shows sideways trading around the EMA50, noticing that the EMA50 shows clear negative signals on the four hours’ time frame, while the price settles below the intraday bullish channel’s support line that appears on the chart.

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Durable and Capital Goods, Distortions Big And Small

New orders for durable goods, excluding transportation industries, rose 9.1% year-over-year (NSA) in January 2018. Shipments of the same were up 8.8%. These rates are in line with the acceleration that began in October 2017 coincident to the aftermath of hurricanes Harvey and Irma. In that way, they are somewhat misleading.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 20/02/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF

The USDCHF pair approached our waited target yesterday, represented by the bearish channel’s resistance that appears on the above chart, noticing that the price faces good resistance at the EMA50, which forms negative pressure that we expect to push the price to resume its main bearish track again.

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US IP On The Other Side of Harvey and Irma

Industrial Production in the US was revised to a lower level for December 2017, and then was slightly lower still in the first estimates for January 2018. Year-over-year, IP was up 3.7%. However, more than two-thirds of the gain was registered in September, October, and November (and nearly all the rest in just the single month of April 2017).

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 12/02/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, WTI Oil Futures, USD/CHF

The USDCHF pair trading settles below the previously broken support that appears in the image, while stochastic provides negative overlapping signal on the four hours time frame, which supports the continuation of our bearish trend expectations in the upcoming sessions, reminding you that our next target at 0.9254.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 05/02/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF

The USDCHF pair traded with clear negativity yesterday to approach our waited target at 0.9418, to keep the bullish trend scenario active until now, being away that it is important to monitor the price behavior when touching the mentioned level, as breaching it will push the price to extend its gains and head towards 0.9530 as a next station, while its stability will push the price to decline again.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 29/01/2018 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, GBPJPY

The USDCHF pair shows some bullish bias to approach retesting the previously broken support that turns into key resistance now at 0.9418, noticing that stochastic loses its bullish momentum clearly to reach the overbought areas, while the EMA50 forms continuous negative pressure against the price.

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Markets At Extremes

Production ended the year on a strong note but early readings from January are not as positive. The December industrial production report headline was strong at a 0.9% gain but a lot of that strength was in the mining (oil drilling) and utility sectors. Mining has actually led the way the last year as rig count has risen with drilling activity. I’d love to see our economy less dependent on the price of oil but that is what we’ve become over the...

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 22/01/2018 – USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

The USDCHF pair found solid support at 0.9564 barrier, which forced the price to rebound bullishly to approach testing the key resistance 0.9655, met by the EMA50 to add more strength to it, while stochastic shows clear overbought signals now.

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Is Un-Humming A Word? It Might Need To Become One

Industrial Production in the US was up 3.6% year-over-year in December 2017. That’s the best for American industry since November 2014 when annual IP growth was 3.7%. That’s ultimately the problem, though, given all that has happened this year. In other words, despite a clear boost the past few months from storm effects, as well as huge contributions from the mining (crude oil) sector, American production at its best can only manage to reflect...

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 15/01/2018 – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, WTI Oil Futures

The USDCHF pair succeeded to break 0.9656 level and hold with a daily close below it, which confirms opening the way to extend the bearish wave towards our yesterday's mentioned next target at 0.9566, noticing that the price approaches retesting the broken level now.

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If Bitcoin Is A Bubble…

Our earlier articles on bitcoin discuss the crypto asset as a currency and a commodity. Both papers focused on the consequences of bitcoin’s defining feature: the asymptotic supply limit of 21 million coins. This gives it an unusual juxtaposition of demand uncertainty and supply certainty (as well as inelasticity). As a currency, it gives rise to a tension between its use as a store of value and as medium of exchange.

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Global Asset Allocation Update

There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market persists so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash. There are some minor changes within the portfolios but the overall allocation is unchanged.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 18/12/2017 – USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/CHF

The USDCHF pair traded with clear negativity yesterday to break 0.9892 level and settles below it, which stops the recently suggested positive scenario and put the price within the correctional bearish track again, noting that there is a bearish pattern that its signs appear on the chart, which means that breaking its neckline at 0.9840 will extend the pair's losses to surpass 0.9800 and reach 0.9730 as a next station.

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Weekly Technical Analysis: 11/12/2017 – USD/CHF, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Gold

The USDCHF pair begins to bounce higher after approaching from 0.9892 level, supported by the EMA50 that meets the mentioned level, while stochastic shows clear bullish trend signals on the four hours time frame. Therefore, these factors encourage us to keep our positive expectations in the upcoming period, waiting for visiting 1.0038 level as a next main station, being aware that breaking 0.9892 will stop the expected rise and turns the price back...

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Reduced Trade Terms Salute The Flattened Curve

The Census Bureau reported earlier today that US imports of foreign goods jumped 9.9% year-over-year in October. That is the second largest increase since February 2012, just less than the 12% import growth recorded for January earlier this year.

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