Tag Archive: China

Bank Of America Reveals “The Next Big Trade”

2016-04-14

Markets have stopped focusing on what central banks are doing and are "positioning for what they believe central banks may or may not do," according to BofA's Athanasios Vamvakidis as he tells FX traders to "prepare to fight the central banks," as th...

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Futures Jump On Chinese Trade Data; Oil Declines; Global Stocks Turn Green For 2016

2016-04-13

by Tyler Durden

2016-04-13

With oil losing some of its euphoric oomph overnight, following the API report of a surge in US oil inventories, and a subsequent report that Iran's oil minister would skip the Doha OPEC meeting altogether, the global stock rally needed another catal...

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Swiss National Bank Admits It Spent $470 Billion On Currency Manipulation Since 2010

2016-03-24

by Tyler Durden

2016-03-24

By now it is common knowledge that when it comes to massive, taxpayer-backed hedge funds, few are quite as big as the Swiss National Bank, whose roughly $100 billion in equity holdings have been extensively profiled on these pages, including its woef...

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Thoughts on the Chinese Export Puzzle

2016-03-10

by Marc Chandler

2016-03-10

Investors are skeptical of Chinese economic data. However, news yesterday that Chinese exports fell by a quarter in February was shocking. Many worry about the implications not just for China, but for world growth. It comes as the IMF is signaling it will likely cut its 3.4% global growth forecast next month. There are three … Continue...

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Global Stocks Soar On Stimulus Hopes After Miserable Chinese, Japanese Data; Short Squeeze

2016-02-15

by Tyler Durden

2016-02-15

Bad news is once again good news... for stocks that is. After a month and a half of markets unable to decide if they should buy or sell on ugly data, over the weekend, People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan expressed faith in the economy, ...

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The Chinese Yuan Countdown Is On

2016-02-13

by Dembik Christopher

2016-02-13

Submitted by SaxoBank's Dembik Christopher via TradingFloor.com, Currency stability is a prerequisite for China's economic transition Defending the yuan is prohibitively expensive – China cannot beat the market Progressive devaluation managed by PBoC...

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China’s 3 trillion dollar mistake

When looking at the current state of the Chinese economy it is important to note what happened leading up the ongoing predicament. By managing the USD/CNY exchange rate the Chinese factory worker was essentially funding excess consumption in the Unit...

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BoJ Adopts Negative Interest Rates, Fails To Increase QE

2016-01-29

by Tyler Durden

2016-01-29

Well that did not last long. After initial exuberance over The BoJ's wishy-washy decision to adopt a 3-tiered rate policy including NIRP, markets have realized that without further asset purchases (which were maintained at the current pace), there is...

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Square Holes And Currency Pegs

2016-01-23

by Tyler Durden

2016-01-23

Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog, When David Bowie died, everybody, in what they wrote and said, seemed to feel they owned him, and owned his death, even if they hadn’t thought about him, or listened to him, for years....

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Global Risk Off: China Reenters Bear Market, Oil Tumbles Under $30; Global Stocks, US Futures Gutted

2016-01-15

by Tyler Durden

2016-01-15

"We're gonna need a bigger Bullard" - overheard on a trading desk this morning. Yesterday, when looking at the market's "Bullard 2.0" moment, which was a carbon copy of the market's kneejerk surge higher response to Bullard's "QE4" comments fr...

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Nigerian Currency Collapses After Central Bank Halts Dollar Sales To Stall “Hyperinflation Monster”

2016-01-12

by Tyler Durden

2016-01-12

Having told banks and investors "don't panic" in September, amid spiking interbank lending rates and surging default/devaluation risks, it appears the massive shortage of dollars that we warned about in December has washed tsunami-like ashore in oil-...

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What a Negative SWAP Spread Really Means

2015-11-21

by Eugen von Böhm Bawerk

2015-11-21

SWAP spreads recently took a nosedive and are once again trading at negative levels, even for shorter maturities. As can be seen from the chart below, treasury yields, here represented by the 10 year maturity, rose during QE policies programs contrad...

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(2.3) Differences in global CPI baskets

Typically poorer countries have a basket with a higher weight for food and other consumption goods, but richer states give them a smaller weight. Here the full details over different countries

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(5.2) FX Rates, the Balance of Payments Model and Central Bank Interventions

We will apply the balance of payments model for determining FX rate movements and FX interventions by central banks.

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CHF Is No Safe-Haven, but a Safe Proxy for Global Economic Growth

In our view the Swiss franc is not a pure Safe-Haven, but a "Safe Proxy for Global Economic Growth". Global investors want to participate via the purchase of safe Swiss multi-nationals in global growth. This means inflows into Swiss franc denominated assets. Together with the big Swiss trade surplus, this implies a stronger franc. China stands for global economy, its slowing growth has a negative influence on the profits of Swiss multi-nationals...

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A Little History of Wages, Inflation, Treasuries and the Fed – And What We Learn from it

On this page we show that Inflation expectations and wages drive the behaviour of the Fed and Treasury bond yields. Excessive wage increases lead to recessions, more or less voluntarily caused by central bank tightening Central banks pin down the short end of the yield curve, while financial-market participants price longer-dated yields Some Emerging Markets seem to copy strong wage increases and inflation that we lived in the 1970s Quickly...

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When Will the Renminbi Become a Reserve Currency?

We recently explained that China will overtake the United States not only for GDP but also for wealth. In this post we explain what is still missing to become a world reserve currency and how quickly this could happen.

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Global Inflation Spikes Up, Are You Sure About What You Are Doing Mr Draghi?

2014-06-04

by George Dorgan

2014-06-04

The European Central Bank (ECB) has the habit of reacting late. As seen in July 2008 and July 2011, the ECB is often the last major central bank to hike rates. They hike rates at the moment when others prepare for a recession or a significant slowing. Currently we are witnessing the opposite movement: The world is getting … Continue...

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Swiss customs: first time detailed trade statistics for gold available; Asia main export market

The 2010 QE2 is a reason why many emerging markets started to slow considerably in the course of 2012. We reckon that this weakness will continue. Bizarrely QE2 helped to reduce global imbalances.

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