Tag Archive: China

FX Daily, February 17: Dismal Q4 Japanese GDP Fails to Spur Yen Movement

2020-02-17

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2020-02-17

Overview: It is only a US holiday today, but the global capital markets are subdued. In the Asia-Pacific region, equities traded lower with China and Hong Kong, the main advancers. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has fallen in only two weeks since the end of last November, and that was during the last two weeks of January. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 slipped in the previous two sessions but is recouping the losses fully today.

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FX Daily, February 14: Investors Continue to Look Past the Coronavirus

2020-02-14

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2020-02-14

Overview: The capital markets are heading into the weekend, still trying to look past the coronavirus despite the new cases in Hubei. Tokyo was a notable exception in the Asia Pacific region, as the other major equity markets, like in Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Australia, advanced. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the second week.

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FX Daily, February 13: Surprise? China Undercounts Afflictions and Fatalities, Curbs Risk Taking

2020-02-13

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2020-02-13

Overview: There is one overriding driver today, and that is the incorporation of CAT scan diagnoses of the virus in Hubei, ground-zero. This follows the arrival of WHO officials into China a couple days ago. Not only have the cases jumped, but so did the number of deaths. It plays on fears that China's figures are not reliable. But it is not just China.

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FX Daily, February 12: The Greenback Slips in Subdued Activity

2020-02-12

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2020-02-12

Investors appear to be increasingly looking past the latest coronavirus from China as new afflictions slow. Despite the soggy close of US equities yesterday, Asia Pacific bourses are nearly all higher, led by more than 1% gains in Singapore and Thailand. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is at new record highs, led by consumer discretionary and materials sectors.

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As the Data Comes In, 2019 Really Did End Badly

2020-02-12

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2020-02-12

Europe Industrial Production, 2007-2019
The coronavirus began during December, but in its early stages no one knew a thing about it. It wasn’t until January 1 that health authorities in China closed the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market after initially determining some wild animals sold there might have been the source of a pneumonia-like outbreak. On January 5, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission issued a statement saying it wasn’t SARS or MERS, and that the spreading disease would be...

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FX Daily, February 10: Quiet Start to the New Week in which Politics may Dominate

2020-02-10

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2020-02-10

Overview: The global capital markets have begun the new week on a cautious tone as investors seek to assess the latest news on the new coronavirus. Nearly all the markets in Asia fell but China. European bourses are lower as well, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 off about 0.3%. US shares are soft but little changed.

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FX Weekly Preview: US Soars while Rivals are Hobbled

2020-02-10

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2020-02-10

We are approaching the mid-point of the first quarter, and the coronavirus from China is the new key development for businesses and investors.  The economic impact appears to be still growing as the disruption to supply chains, production, and demand continues.  The re-opening of China from the extended Lunar New Year holiday brought some relief to the markets as officials ensured ample liquidity, leaned against short selling, and offered...

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FX Daily, February 7: Dollar Rides High as Eurozone Disappoints, and Caution Sets In

2020-02-07

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2020-02-07

Overview: A more cautious tone is evident today in the markets, which seem to have run well ahead of macro developments and evidence that the new coronavirus is not yet contained. After a roughly 3.5% advance in the past three sessions, the MSCI Asia Pacific index pulled back with nearly the markets in the region slipping.

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FX Daily, February 5: Markets Extend Recovery, but Look for a Pause

2020-02-05

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2020-02-05

Overview: The S&P 500 gapped higher and surged 1.5% yesterday, the most since in six months, helping set the stage for a continued recovery in global equities, and stoked risk appetites more broadly. An experimental antiviral treatment is to begin clinical testing. All of the markets in the Asia Pacific region advanced, with Japan, China, and Singapore gaining more than 1%.

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FX Daily, January 31: Stocks Finishing on Poor Note, while the Dollar and Bonds Firm

2020-01-31

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2020-01-31

Overview: It was as if the World Health Organization's recognition of that the new coronavirus is an international health emergency was the catalyst that the markets needed. US equities recovered smartly and managed to close higher on the session. However, the coattails were short, and follow-through buying of US shares fizzled.

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FX Daily, January 29: Escaped from a Crocodile’s Mouth, Entered a Tiger’s Mouth

2020-01-29

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2020-01-29

Overview: This colorful Malay saying captures the spirit of the animal spirits. Narrowly escaping an escalation of a trade war between the world's two largest economies, the outbreak of a deadly virus has spurred moves, especially the sell-off in stocks and rally in bonds, for which many investors seemed ill-prepared. Even though the virus contagion has not peaked, the recovery in US equities yesterday points to a break the fear and anxiety.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead and Why the FOMC Meeting may not be the Most Interesting

2020-01-27

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2020-01-27

The week ahead is arguably the most important here at the start of 2020.  The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England meet. The US and the eurozone report initial estimates of Q4 19 GDP.  The eurozone also reports its preliminary estimate of January CPI.  China returns from the extended Lunar New Year celebration and reports its official PMI.  Japan will report December retail sales and industrial production. 

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FX Daily, January 24: Coronavirus Hits Asia Hardest, Europe and the US Resilient

2020-01-24

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2020-01-24

Overview: The new coronavirus in China has moved into the vacuum left by the US-China trade agreement and clear indications that the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Federal Reserve are on hold as investors searched for new drivers. The World Health Organization refrained from calling it a public health emergency even though China has dramatically stepped up its efforts to contain the new virus.

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FX Daily, January 23: ECB’s Strategic Review and the Coronavirus Command Investors’ Attention

2020-01-23

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2020-01-23

The spread of the coronavirus and the lockdown in the epicenter in China has again sapped the risk-taking appetite in the capital markets. Asia is bearing the brunt of the adjustment. Tomorrow starts China's week-long Lunar New Year celebration when markets will be closed, which may have also spurred today's drama that aw the Shanghai Composite tumbled 2.75%, bringing the week's loss to 3.2%, the most in five months.

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FX Daily, January 21: New Respiratory Illness Saps Risk-Taking Appetites

2020-01-21

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2020-01-21

The spread of a new respiratory illness in China has spurred a wave of profit-taking in equities and risk assets more generally. All of the markets in the Asia Pacific region tumbled, with Hong Kong hit the hardest (-2.8%) after posting a key reversal yesterday. The sell-off continued in Europe. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off about 0.8% in late morning turnover, led by consumer discretionary, materials, and energy. 

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China Enters 2020 Still (Intent On) Managing Its Decline

2020-01-21

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2020-01-21

China Industrial Production, 1998-2019
Chinese Industrial Production accelerated further in December 2019, rising 6.9% year-over-year according to today’s estimates from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). That was a full percentage point above consensus. IP had bottomed out right in August at a record low 4.4%, and then, just as this wave of renewed optimism swept the world, it has rebounded alongside it.

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FX Daily, January 20: Stocks Stall while the Dollar Remains Bid

2020-01-20

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2020-01-20

Overview: The new week is off to a quiet start as the US celebrates Martin Luther King's birthday, and investors look for a fresh focus. Hong Kong and Indian markets were suffered modest declines while most of the other large Asia Pacific markets edged higher. European stocks are trading a little lower, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is threatening to end a four-session advance. Most benchmark bond yields around half a basis point in one direction or...

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FX Daily, January 17: China and the UK Surprise in Opposite Directions

2020-01-17

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2020-01-17

Overview:  Helped by new record highs in the US, global stocks are moving higher today. Nearly all the markets in the Asia Pacific region advanced and the seventh consecutive weekly rally is the longest in a couple of years. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is at new record highs and appears set to take a four-day streak into next week. US shares are trading firmly.

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FX Daily, January 16: Markets Look for New Cues with US-China Trade Pact Signed

2020-01-16

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2020-01-16

Overview: The global capital markets are calm today as investors await fresh trading incentives. New record highs in the US equity indices gave Asia Pacific stocks a lift, though China and Taiwan were notable exceptions. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is firm new record highs set last week.  US equities are edging higher in Europe. Benchmark bond yields are little changed.

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Clarida Picks Up Some Data

2020-01-16

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2020-01-16

China Exports, 2006-2019
I should know better than to make declarative all-or-none statements like this. I said there isn’t any data which comports with the idea of a global turnaround, this shakeup in sentiment which since early September has gone right from one extreme to the other. Recession fears predominated in summer only to be (rather easily) replaced by near euphoria (again).

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