Tag Archive: Brexit

UK Seeks Divorce, Rajoy Needs a Shotgun Marriage

2016-06-27

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2016-06-27

Center-right PP won the Spanish election. Anti-EU forces were setback. Rajoy needs a coalition partner.

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Cool Video: Early Thoughts on Brexit Implications with FT’s John Authers

2016-06-26

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2016-06-26

The Financial Times' John Authers visited me at Brown Brothers Harriman to discuss the initial implications. The situation is very fluid and there are many moving pieces. In Chinese, the characters for crisis are "danger" and "opportunity."

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FX Daily, June 24: Brexit Sends Shock Waves, SNB Intervenes

2016-06-24

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2016-06-24

The UK's decision to leave the EU spurred a dramatic risk-off move through the capital markets. The dollar, yen, and gold soared. Equities and emerging market assets sold off hard. The SNB had to intervene.

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Brexit shakes global markets and the SMI

2016-06-24

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2016-06-24

The Swiss Market Index (SMI) is set to post a modest gain this week despite confirmation that the UK has decided to leave the European Union. The SMI opened almost 7% lower following the announcement before recovering.

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FX Daily, June 23: R-Day is Here, but Can it Prove Anti-Climactic?

2016-06-23

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2016-06-23

The UK's referendum is underway.  The capital markets are continuing the move that began last week with the murder of UK MP Cox.  The tragedy seemed to mark a shift in investor sentiment.  Sterling bottomed on June 17 just ahead...

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Cool Video: Chandler at CNBC on Brexit

2016-06-23

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2016-06-23

Chandler on CNBC's Trading Block show to discuss how the market is positioned for the UK referendum. The markets are strongly anticipating the UK to vote to stay in the EU, even though polls remain very tight. Given that leveraged participants and speculators have rallied sterling more than nine cents from last week's lows.

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FX Daily, June 22: Markets Consolidate as Table is Set for Referendum

2016-06-23

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2016-06-23

There is a nervous calm in the capital markets today. The focus is squarely on tomorrow’s UK referendum. Brexit According to a BBC focus group, the leeave camp won the debate 39%-34%. The last polls show a contest that it too close to calls in that the results are within the margin of error.  The … Continue...

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Great Graphic: UK Referendum–Turnout it Key

2016-06-22

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2016-06-22

Younger age cohorts in the UK are more inclined to vote to stay in the EU than their elders. However, some suggested that this consideration is blunted by the fact that the younger people are less likely to vote.

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Great Graphic: Age and Brexit

2016-06-21

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2016-06-21

The betting and events markets have shifted more decisively than the polls in favor of the UK to remain in the EU.  Sterling extended its rally from $1.4010 last Thursday to nearly $1.4785 today, as the market participants adjust positions. What is particular striking is that the asymmetrical perceptions of the personal impact of a … Continue...

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FX Weekly Preview: It is All about Europe

2016-06-19

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2016-06-19

Major data this week: German Constitutional Court ruling on OMT. UK referendum. EMU flash PMI. ECB TLTRO II launch. Yellen testifies before Congress, RBI Rajan to step down in early Sept.

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FX Daily, June 17: Martyrdom of Cox Acts as Catharsis

2016-06-17

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2016-06-17

The assassination of Jo Cox, a member of the UK parliament is a personal and political tragedy.  Her needless death provided an inflection point.  The suspension of the referendum campaigns and a steady stream of reports and speech...

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FX Daily, June 14: Capital Markets Remain at UK Referendum’s Mercy

2016-06-14

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2016-06-14

"The Swiss Franc was the strongest performer, EUR/CHF has fallen to 1.08 by 0.8%". A spate of opinion polls showing a tilt toward Brexit, and the leading UK newspaper urging the Leave vote on the front page, keep the global capital markets on edge. Equities are lower, though of note ahead of the MSCI decision first thing Wednesday in Asia, Chinese shares eked out a small gain.

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FX Daily, June 13: Brexit Dominates

2016-06-13

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2016-06-13

  Swiss Franc Chandler is a bit puzzled about the Swiss Franc, that got stronger despite speculators being short CHF. We see weaker oil prices and weaker China as major reason, why sight deposits are falling and speculators are long the dollar. FX Rates The risk that the UK votes to leave the EU next … Continue reading »

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Democratic Deficit: Is the UK Referendum the Tip of the Iceberg?

2016-06-13

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2016-06-13

One of the most profound criticisms of the EU that it remains, even at this late date, primarily an elite project.  The democratic deficit has grown, according to the latest Pew Research multi-country poll. The Pew Research sur...

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Politics and Economics

2016-06-10

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2016-06-10

Many people understand politics and economics to be two different disciplines. I remember in graduate school more than two decades ago, many colleagues and professors operationally defined political economy as how politics, by which they meant the state, screws up economics. I spoke at the Fixed Income Leaders Summit earlier this week and teased that many seemed …

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Swiss Reserves: Not what They Seem

2016-06-08

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2016-06-08

SNB Currency Allocation 2016
This posts shows again the stupidity of the financial media, that mixes up assets and liabilities for central banks. SNB FX reserves are assets. They are in different foreign currencies and subject to the valuation effect of these currencies.

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Great Graphic: Brexit Risks Rise

2016-06-06

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2016-06-06

Brexit Predict This Great Graphic shows the price people are willing to pay to bet that the UK votes to leave the EU at the June 23 referendum on the PredictIt events markets.   We included the lower chart to give some sense of volume of activity on this wager in this event market. Presently, one … Continue reading »

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FX Week Ahead: Evolving Investment Climate

2016-05-22

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2016-05-22

The US dollar’s weakness in recent months, despite negative interest rates in Europe and Japan likely had many contributing factors. These factors include shifting views of Fed policy, weaker US growth, the recovery in commodity prices, including oil, gold and iron ore, and market positioning.

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FX Daily May 11: A Few Thoughts from Asian Business Trip

2016-05-10

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2016-05-10

Sometimes the mountain looks clearer from the plain the summit to paraphrase a American-Lebanese poet.   The dollar appears to have entered a new phase on May 3.  On that day, it reversed higher against the euro, yen, and sterling for lows not seen in a while.     It is tempting to construct a fundamental … Continue reading »

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EU Plans $290K Per Person Fine For Countries Refusing “Fair Share” Of Refugees; Angry Response Ensues

2016-05-05

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2016-05-05

As Norway offers cash for refugees to leave, announcing that they won't be accepting any more refugees from the EU, and Switzerland prepares its military to close down borders, the EU has seemingly had enough of every country acting as if it has any ...

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