Tag Archive: Brexit

FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead

2019-03-25

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2019-03-25

The combination of the dovish hold by the Federal Reserve and the eurozone's miserable flash Purchasing Managers Index casts a pall over the economic outlook.  Japan's flash PMI remained stuck at February's 48.9, while core inflation unexpectedly eased.  Three months after the European Central Bank stopped buying bonds, the German 10-year Bund yield fell below zero for the first time since 2016.

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FX Weekly Preview: Three Highlights in the Week Ahead

2019-03-18

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2019-03-18

Three events next week will shape the investment climate. The Federal Reserve meets and will update its forecasts and guidance. The British House of Commons may vote for a third time on the Withdrawal Bill before Prime Minister May heads of the EU Summit to ask for an extension of the UK leaving the EU. The eurozone sees the flash March PMI, with great hope that the green shoots of spring will be evident.

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Brexit update: UK parliament opts for an extension

2019-03-18

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2019-03-18

GBP/USD Exchange Rate 2018-2019
After an eventful week in parliament, the Brexit ball is set to keep rolling as MPs move to extend the 29 March deadline.The British Parliament concluded a series of votes on Brexit this week with an intention to extend the 29 March Brexit deadline. What remains unclear at this point is whether the UK will seek a short (two months) or a longer extension (two years).

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FX Daily, March 12: Wave of Optimism Sweeps through the Capital Markets

2019-03-12

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2019-03-12

Last minutes statements meant to clarify what many MPs find to be the most odious part of the Withdrawal Bill, the backstop for the Irish border is goosed global equity markets even though it does not seem as if the Withdrawal Bill has changed one iota. And after the big rally in US shares yesterday, there might have been follow-through buying in any case today. Asian markets did not disappoint.

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FX Weekly Preview: Brexit Comes to a Head, and while Europe and US Data Rebound, the Equity Rally Falters

2019-03-11

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2019-03-11

Brexit comes to a head. By nearly all reckoning, the Withdrawal Bill will be resoundingly defeated in the House of Commons on March 12. The margin of defeat may not match the first rejection, but it will be the death knell to the path that had been negotiated for a year and a half.

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FX Weekly Preview: Dovish Hold by the ECB and Uptick in US Wages will Underscore Divergence

2019-03-04

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2019-03-04

The important events take place in the second half of the week ahead: the ECB meeting and the US employment report. A dovish hold by the ECB is the most likely outcome. US jobs growth is bound to slow from the heady 304k gain in January, but there won't be anything in it that lends credence to ideas that the world's largest economy is on the precipice of a recession.

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CNBC Clip: February 24 Brexit

2019-02-27

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2019-02-27

We tried a CNBC hook-up in Asia via Skype on February 25.  I did not think there would be a clip, but I stumbled on it looking for something else.  Click here for the roughly 2.5-minute interview done from my apartment in NYC.  The discussion is on Brexit and sterling. 

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FX Weekly Preview: Little Resolution in the Week Ahead

2019-02-11

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2019-02-11

According to legend, the person who unraveled the Gordian Knot would rule the world. No one succeeded until Alexandar the Great took his mighty sword and sliced the knot in half. A young boy saw him afterward, crying on the steps of the Temple of Apollo. "Why are you crying?" the boy asked, "you just conquered the world. "Yes'" Alexander wept, " now there is nothing else for me to do."

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Two Brinkmanship Games and a Possible Third

2019-02-02

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2019-02-02

Some historians give Adlai Stevenson credit for inventing the word "brinkmanship" as part of his criticism of US foreign policy under Dulles, who said that "if you are scared of going to the brink, you lost." But surely we can agree that the tactic is as old as civilization. The idea is you take the issue to the very edge, risking a significant confrontation, to force a deal, is the way it may seem.

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Novartis Stockpiles Drugs in UK to Ensure Supply

2019-01-30

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2019-01-30

Novartis Imports
Swiss pharmaceuticals giant Novartis says a no-deal Brexit could hurt patients and that it is stockpiling medicines in the UK to help ensure continuity of supply. In a press releaseexternal link on Friday, it said that after the British parliament’s rejection of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal, “the risk of UK exiting the EU without a deal is increased and this will be hugely impactful for patients, particularly around the supply and...

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Gold Consolidates Above $1,300 After 1.2 percent Gain Last Week

2019-01-29

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2019-01-29

Gold Bar CS 50g
Gold futures settled above $1,300 an ounce on Friday, with prices for the yellow metal at their highest since June as the U.S. dollar pulled back and investors eyed geopolitical turmoil and global growth worries. Rising gold prices reflect “political uncertainty” in the U.S., Eurozone, Venezuela and pockets of South America, as well as China-U.S. trade talks, said George Gero, managing director in RBC.

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FX Weekly Preview: Divergence Reinvigorated

2019-01-28

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2019-01-28

Last week the focus was on Europe. Prospects of a delay in Brexit helped extend sterling's gains to 11-week highs. Disappointing flash PMI for the eurozone and a dovish Draghi pushed the euro below $1.13 for the first time since mid-December.

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FX Daily, January 16: Markets are Eerily Calm

2019-01-16

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2019-01-16

Overview: There is an eerie calm over in the capital market through the European morning today despite some ostensibly worrisome developments.  While many, like ourselves, expect UK Prime Minister May to survive a vote of confidence, it hardly clarifies the outlook. 

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FX Weekly Preview: For the Millionth Time, Markets Exaggerate

2019-01-07

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2019-01-07

The S&P 500 fell more than 12% in a few weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield fell nearly 40 bp. There were cries that the sky was falling. A recession is imminent, we are warned by prognosticators. The Fed went ahead and raised interest rates on March 21, 2018, and the S&P 500 proceeded to gap lower the next day and continued to sell-off the following day. Investors did not like the unanimous decision.

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FX Weekly Preview: FOMC Dominates Week Ahead Calendar

2018-12-17

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2018-12-17

The last FOMC meeting of 2018 is at hand. After hiking rates three times in 2017, the Fed signaled that four hikes were likely this year and with a widely expected move on December 20, it would have fully delivered, though many steps along the way, skeptical investors had to be led by the nose, as it were, to minimize the element of surprise.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead: Don’t Skip Steps on Escalation Ladders

2018-12-10

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2018-12-10

The drop in US yields and disappointing economic data weighed on sentiment and the dollar last week. Even weakness in equities, which had seemed to lend the greenback support, failed to do so at the end of last week. With the real Fed funds rate (adjusted for inflation) below zero, employment at 50-year lows, and some fiscal stimulus still in the pipeline, the doom and gloom cant of a recession next year seems misplaced.

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FX Weekly Preview: Unfinished Business

2018-11-19

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2018-11-19

Often, and apparently wrongly attributed to Mark Twain is the observation that it is not what we know that gets into trouble, but "what we know that just ain't so." Now though, investors suffer from a different problem. Several processes are in motion, and there is little confidence in their outcomes. Among these are Brexit, US-China trade, the trajectory of Fed policy, and the EC's efforts to enforce the agreed-upon budget rules.

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After May’s divorce deal: the road ahead for Brexit

2018-11-17

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2018-11-17

GBP/USD drops after Theresa May's cabinet approves the Eu divorce deal
But significant political challenges lie ahead before the 29 March deadline for Brexit. Sterling likely to be in the spotlight for several months.Theresa May’s cabinet has approved her divorce deal with the European Union (EU). A few cabinet secretaries have resigned, including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab because the deal keeps the UK in a transitory ‘customs union’ with the EU, which in his view continues to give the EU too much influence on UK...

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FX Daily, November 16: Turning Brexit into a Dog’s Breakfast

2018-11-16

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2018-11-16

Overview: It is the height of irony or tragedy that what was offered as a non-binding referendum on UK's membership in the European Union to bring the country, or at least the Tory Party, together is the most destabilizing event since the UK unceremoniously quit the European Exchange Rate Mechanism more than a quarter of a century ago. 

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Pound Falls 2.5 percent Against Gold as UK Government in Turmoil Over Brexit

2018-11-16

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2018-11-16

Gold in GBP (24 Hours)
The pound plunged against the euro, the dollar, gold and all leading currencies today as Theresa May’s UK government appeared vulnerable to collapsing and political turmoil risked creating a hard Brexit. The pound has fallen 2.6% against gold in less than twenty four hours seeing gold rise from £923 to £947 per ounce in sterling terms.

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