Tag Archive: Brexit

FX Daily, December 02: Calm Surface Masks Lack of Conviction

The downside reversal in US stocks yesterday seemed to accelerate after the first case of the Omicron variant was found in the US.  In itself, it should not be surprising, but perhaps, what was especially disheartening is that the person had been fully vaccinated. 

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Euro Bounces Back, but the Turkish Lira Remains Unloved

Overview:  The US dollar's sharp upside momentum stalled yesterday near JPY115 and after the euro met (and surpassed) a key retracement level slightly below $1.1300.  Led by the Antipodean currencies today, the greenback is mostly trading with a heavier bias.  Among the majors, helped by a steadying of US yields, the yen is soft.  In the emerging market space, the Turkish lira continues its headlong plunge while the yuan softened and the Mexican...

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The Greenback Slips to Start the New Week

Overview:  While the Belarus-Poland border remains an intense standoff, there have been a couple other diplomatic developments that may be exciting risk appetites today.  First, Biden and Xi will talk by phone later today.  Second, reports suggest the UK has toned down its rhetoric making progress on talks on the implementation of the Northern Ireland Protocol.

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Euro and Sterling Record New Lows for the Year

Overview: The capital markets remain unsettled.  The US CPI with a 6%-handle has lifted bond market volatility, disrupted rallies in stocks, and extended the dollar's rally.   Small gains in the US S&P 500 and NASDAQ yesterday and a better news stream from China helped lift Asia Pacific equities today.  Benchmarks in Japan, South Korea, and India rose more than 1%.  Europe's Stoxx 600 is struggling as energy, health care, and utilities are...

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Markets Await Fresh Developments

Overview: Last week's bond market rally has stalled.  Benchmark 10-year yields are up 1-3 bp in Europe, and the three bp increase in the US puts the yield slightly below 1.50%.  Equities were mixed in the Asia Pacific region. 

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Big Week Begins Slowly

Overview:  The global capital markets give little indication of the important economic and earnings data that lie ahead this week.  There is an eerie calm. Equities in Asia were mixed.  Japan and Hong Kong, and most small bourses were lower. 

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Hard to Be Sterling

Overview: Energy prices pulled back late yesterday, but it offered little reprieve to the bond market where the 10-year benchmark yields in the US, UK, Sweden, and Switzerland reached new three-month highs.  November WTI traded to almost $76.70 before reversing lower and leaving a potentially bearish shooting star candlestick in its wake. 

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Soaring Energy Prices Lift Yields, Weigh on Equities and the Greenback Pops

Overview: Rising energy prices and yields are helping lift the US dollar and weighing on equities.  November WTI has pushed above $76, while Brent traded above $80, and natural gas is up for the fourth consecutive session, during which time it has risen by about 25%. 

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FX Daily, July 22: Enguard Lagarde

Overview: The rally in US shares yesterday, ostensibly fueled by strong earnings reports, is helping to encourage risk appetites today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is posting its biggest gain in around two weeks, though Japan's markets are closed today and tomorrow.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is building on yesterday's rally, and with today's ~0.8% gain, it is up on the week.

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Weekly View – Staying on script

Big US banks released their 2Q earnings last week. The figures were good thanks to robust growth in investment-banking income as well as a drop in loan-loss provisions. But banks also reported that wage costs were beginning to rise, and while a booming housing market has boosted mortgage-loan business, the renewed retreat in long-term yields has been a drag on interest income.

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FX Daily, June 23: Japan Retains Distinction of being the only G7 Country with Sub-50 PMI Composite

Federal Reserve officials, lead by Chair Powell, pushed gently against the more hawkish interpretations of last week's FOMC meeting. Tapering not a rate hike was the focus of discussions. Powell reiterated that price pressures would prove transitory and would ease after the re-opening disruptions settled down.

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FX Daily, June 14: Dollar Becalmed as Markets Wait for US Leadership

The short squeeze that lifted the US dollar ahead of the weekend has seen limited follow-through buying, and instead a consolidative tone emerged. Europe is searching for direction and perhaps waiting for US leadership after a quiet Asia Pacific session, with several centers closed for holiday today (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Australia).

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FX Daily, June 10: ECB Meeting and US CPI: Transitory Impact

The ECB meeting and the US May CPI report is at hand. The US dollar is consolidating at a higher level against most of the major currencies. Softer than expected, inflation readings are weighing on the Scandis, which are bearing the brunt. The US 10-year yield closed below 1.50% for the first time in three months yesterday, and this may have helped underpin the Japanese yen.

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FX Daily, April 29: US GDP: The V

Overview:  The market's initial reaction to the Federal Reserve statement and the press conference was that it was dovish: the 10-year yield slipped, and the dollar was sold to new lows.  In fact, the two countries that appear to be ahead of the curve among high-income countries, Canada and Norway, saw their currencies rally to new three-year highs.

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FX Daily, March 4: OPEC+ and Powell are Awaited

Overview:  Equities are under pressure following yesterday's sharp losses in the US.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index suffered its biggest decline of the week today as Japanese, Chinese, and Hong Kong benchmarks slid by more than 2%.  The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index in Europe is buckling under the pressure and is posting its first decline of the week. 

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FX Daily, February 16: Greenback Remains Heavy

The equity rally appears undeterred by the rise in interest rates or the surge in oil prices.  Led by Tokyo and Hong Kong, Asia Pacific equities advanced.  China, Taiwan, and Vietnam markets remain closed. After gapping higher yesterday and extended the gains in early turnover today, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is consolidating.

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FX Daily, February 11: Oil Set to Snap 8-day Advance while Consolidative Tone Emerges in FX

Overview: The S&P 500 and NASDAQ were unable to sustain the gap higher opening to new record levels and reversed lower and fell to new three-lows. The settlements were just inside Tuesday ranges, though the Dow Industrials set a record close. Yet, there was spillover to equity trading in the Asia Pacific region and Europe today.

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FX Daily, February 9: Players are Not Buying Everything Today

The rally of US benchmarks to new record highs helped lift most Asia Pacific markets today, but the bulls are pausing in Europe, and there has been little follow-through buying of US shares.  Australia, South Korea, and Indonesia did not participate in today's regional advance led by a 2% rally in China's main indices.

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FX Daily, February 1: Markets Snap Back

Global equities are snapping back today, while the greenback retained the strength seen last week that was attributed to safe-haven flows. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-day decline led by Hong Kong, South Korea, India, and Indonesia.

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FX Daily, December 16: Greenback Slides Ahead of FOMC as Optimism Underpins Risk Appetites

Overview:  The S&P 500 snapped a four-day downdraft helped by optimism over the progress toward fiscal stimulus and some hope that a new trade deal can still be negotiated between the UK and EU.  Europe reported better than expected PMIs.  Equities are broadly higher, as are interest rates, while the dollar slumps. 

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