Tag Archive: Bonds

Schaetze To That

2020-02-26

When Mario Draghi sat down for his scheduled press conference on April 4, 2012, it was a key moment and he knew it. The ECB had finished up the second of its “massive” LTRO auctions only weeks before. Draghi was still relatively new to the job, having taken over for Jean-Claude Trichet the prior November amidst substantial turmoil.

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Was It A Midpoint And Did We Already Pass Through It?

2020-02-25

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-02-25

We certainly don’t have a crystal ball at the ready, and we can’t predict the future. The best we might hope is to entertain reasonable probabilities for it oftentimes derived from how we see the past. Which is just what statistics and econometrics attempt. Except, wherein they go wrong we don’t have to make their mistakes.

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US Sales and Production Remain Virus-Free, But Still Aren’t Headwind-Free

2020-02-18

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-02-18

The lull in US consumer spending on goods has reached a fifth month. The annual comparisons aren’t good, yet they somewhat mask the more recent problems appearing in the figures. According to the Census Bureau, total retail sales in January rose 4.58% year-over-year (unadjusted). Not a good number, but better, seemingly, than early on in 2019 when the series was putting out 3s and 2s.

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Two Years And Now It’s Getting Serious

2020-02-11

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-02-11

We knew German Industrial Production for December 2019 was going to be ugly given what deStatis had reported for factory orders yesterday. In all likelihood, Germany’s industrial economy ended last year sinking and maybe too quickly. What was actually reported, however, exceeded every pessimistic guess and expectation – by a lot.

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Don’t Forget (Business) Credit

2020-02-05

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-02-05

Rolling over in credit stats, particularly business debt, is never a good thing for an economy. As noted yesterday, in Europe it’s not definite yet but sure is pronounced. The pattern is pretty clear even if we don’t ultimately know how it will play out from here. The process of reversing is at least already happening and so we are left to hope that there is some powerful enough positive force (a real force rather than imaginary, therefore...

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History Shows You Should Infer Nothing From Powell’s Pause

2020-02-02

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-02-02

Jay Powell says that three’s not a crowd, at least not for his rate cuts, but four would be. As usual, central bankers like him always hedge and say that “should conditions warrant” the FOMC will be more than happy to indulge (the NYSE). But what he means in his heart of hearts is that there probably won’t be any need.

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With No Second Half Rebound, Confirming The Squeeze

2020-01-29

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-01-29

Germany ZEW Financial Market Survey, 2006-2019

It’s a palpable impatience. Having learned absolutely nothing from the most recent German example, there’s this pervasive belief that if the economy hasn’t fallen apart by now it must be going the other way. The right way. Those are the only two options for mainstream analysis (which means it isn’t analysis).

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Not Abating, Not By A Longshot

2020-01-14

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-01-14

Since I advertised the release last week, here’s Mexico’s update to Industrial Production in November 2019. The level of production was estimated to have fallen by 1.8% from November 2018. It was up marginally on a seasonally-adjusted basis from its low in October.

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Manufacturing Clears Up Bond Yields

2020-01-07

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-01-07

Federal Reserve Regional Manu. PMI, 2016-2019

Yesterday, IHS Markit reported that the manufacturing turnaround its data has been suggesting stalled. After its flash manufacturing PMI had fallen below 50 several times during last summer (only to be revised to slightly above 50 every time the complete survey results were tabulated), beginning in September 2019 the index staged a rebound jumping first to 51.1 in that month.

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Everything Comes Down To Which Way The Dollar Is Leaning

2019-12-21

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2019-12-21

Is the global economy on the mend as everyone at least here in America is now assuming? For anyone else to attempt to answer that question, they might first have to figure out what went wrong in the first place. Most have simply assumed, and continue to assume, it has been fallout from the “trade wars.”

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A Repo Deluge…of Necessary Data

2019-12-18

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2019-12-18

Just in time for more discussions about repo, the Federal Reserve delivers. Not in terms of the repo market, mind you, despite what you hear bandied about in the financial media the Fed doesn’t actually go there. Its repo operations are more RINO’s – repo in name only. No, what the US central bank actually contributes is more helpful data.

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The BIS Misses An Opportunity To Get Consistent With The Facts

2019-12-11

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2019-12-11

Net lending through repos and federal funds by size group

Much has been made about the repo market since mid-September. Much continues to be made about it. The question is why. It is now near the middle of December and repo looks dicey despite repo operations and a not-QE small-scale asset purchase intended to increase the level of bank reserves. Always the focus on “funds” which may be available. It was John Adams who took on the task of defending several British soldiers on trial for the Boston...

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Fails Swarms Are Just One Part

2019-12-08

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2019-12-08

There it was sticking out like a sore thumb right in the middle of what should have been the glory year. Everything seemed to be going just right for once, success so close you could almost feel it. Well, “they” could. The year was 2014 and the unemployment rate in the US was tumbling, the result of the “best jobs market in decades.” Real GDP in that year’s two middle quarters was pretty near 5% in both.

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The Big One, The Smoking Gun

2019-11-29

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2019-11-29

It wasn’t just the unemployment rate which was one of the key reasons why Economists and central bankers (redundant) felt confident enough to inspire 2017’s inflation hysteria. There was actually another piece to it, a bigger piece potentially complimentary and corroborative bit of conjecture. I write “conjecture” because despite how all this is presented in the media there’s very little precision to any of it.

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More (Badly Needed) Curve Comparisons

2019-11-23

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2019-11-23

Even though it was a stunning turn of events, the move was widely celebrated. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, the FOMC, hadn’t been scheduled to meet until the end of that month. And yet, Alan Greenspan didn’t want to wait. The “maestro”, still at the height of his reputation, was being pressured to live up to it.

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FX Daily, November 8: Risk Appetites Satiated Ahead of the Weekend

2019-11-08

by Marc Chandler

2019-11-08

The capital markets are consolidating the recent moves ahead of the weekend. Equities are paring this week's gains, though the Nikkei, which was closed on Monday, extended its advance for the fourth consecutive session. Despite the profit-taking today, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fifth week. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a five-day rally, but it is closing in on the fifth consecutive weekly advance.

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Three (Rate Cuts) And GDP, Where (How) Does It End?

2019-11-01

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2019-11-01

The Federal Reserve has indicated that it will now pause – for a second time, supposedly. Remember the first: after raising its benchmark rates apparatus in December while still talking about an inflationary growth acceleration requiring even more hikes throughout 2019, in a matter of weeks that was transformed into a temporary suspension of them.

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Monthly Macro Monitor: Market Indicators Review

2019-10-30

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2019-10-30

Is the recession scare over? Can we all come out from under our desks now? The market based economic indicators I follow have improved since my last update two months ago. The 10 year Treasury rate has moved 40 basis points off its low. Real interest rates have moved up as well but not quite as much. The difference is reflected in slightly higher inflation expectations.

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August TIC: Trying To Get Collateral Out of the Shadows

2019-10-23

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2019-10-23

The second most frustrating aspect of trying to analyze global shadow money is how the term “shadow” really applies in this case. It’s not really because banks are being sneaky, desperately maintaining their cover for any number of illicit activities they are regularly accused of undertaking. The money stays in the shadows for the simple reason central bankers don’t know their jobs; even after a somehow Global Financial Crisis in 2008, they don’t...

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Tidbits Of Further Warnings: Houston, We (Still) Have A (Repo) Problem

2019-10-18

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2019-10-18

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, 2001-2019

Despite the name, the Fed doesn’t actually intervene in the US$ repo market. I know they called them overnight repo operations, but that’s only because they mimic repo transactions not because the central bank is conducting them in that specific place. What really happened was FRBNY allotting bank reserves (in exchange for UST, MBS, and agency collateral) only to the 24 primary dealers.

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