Tag Archive: Bonds

Re-recession Not Required

2020-09-12

If we are going to see negative nominal Treasury rates, what would guide yields toward such a plunge? It seems like a recession is the ticket, the only way would have to be a major economic downturn. Since we’ve already experienced one in 2020, a big one no less, and are already on our way back up to recovery (some say), then have we seen the lows in rates?Not for nothing, every couple years when we do those (record low yields) that’s what “they”...

Read More »

Bottleneck In Japanese

2020-09-09

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-09-09

Japan’s yen is backward, at least so far as its trading direction may be concerned. This is all the more confusing especially over the past few months when this rising yen has actually been aiding the dollar crash narrative while in reality moving the opposite way from how the dollar system would be behaving if it was really happening.

Read More »

Monthly Market Monitor – August 2020

2020-09-08

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2020-09-08

Many of the weak dollar trends I noted in June’s update have moderated – even as the dollar has weakened further. US stocks surged over the last month, with growth indices leaving their value counterparts in the dust…again.

Read More »

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 24, Part 2: Peering Behind The (Unemployment Rate) Curtain

2020-09-06

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-09-06

———WHERE——— AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK...

Read More »

Powell Would Ask For His Money Back, If The Fed Did Money

2020-09-05

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-09-05

Since the unnecessary destruction brought about by GFC2 in March 2020, there have been two detectable, short run trendline upward moves in nominal Treasury yields. Both were predictably classified across the entire financial media as the guaranteed first steps toward the “inevitable” BOND ROUT!!!!

Read More »

This Has To Be A Joke, Because If It’s Not…

2020-08-28

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-08-28

US Treasury and Auction Rates, Oct 2018 Aug 2020

After thinking about it all day, I’m still not quite sure this isn’t a joke; a high-brow commitment of utterly brilliant performance art, the kind of Four-D masterpiece of hilarious deception that Andy Kaufman would’ve gone nuts over. I mean, it has to be, right?I’m talking, of course, about Jackson Hole and Jay Powell’s reportedly genius masterstroke.

Read More »

Not This Again: Too Many Treasuries?

2020-08-27

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-08-27

Tomorrow, the Treasury Department is going to announce the results of its latest bond auction. A truly massive one, $47 billion are being offered of CAH4’s notes dated August 31, 2020, maturing out in August 31, 2027. In other words, the belly of the belly, the 7s.We’ve already seen them drop for two note auctions this week, both equally sizable.

Read More »

Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2020 (VIDEO)

2020-08-26

by Marcelo Perez

2020-08-26

Monthly macro monitor review of August 2020 with Bob Williams and Joe Calhoun.

Read More »

Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2020

2020-08-22

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2020-08-22

One of the advantages we enjoy here at Alhambra is the opportunity to interact with a lot of investors. We talk to hundreds of individual investors on a monthly basis, giving us a front-row seat to everyone’s fear and greed. Economic data tells us about the past, which isn’t particularly useful for investors focused on the future.

Read More »

Part 2 of June TIC: The Dollar Why

2020-08-21

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-08-21

Federal Reserve: H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates, 2008-2020

Before getting into the why of the dollar’s stubbornly high exchange value in the face of so much “money printing”, we need to first go back and undertake a decent enough review of the guts maybe even the central focus of the global (euro)dollar system.

Read More »

Fama 2: No Inflation For Old Central Banks

2020-08-14

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-08-14

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the core CPI in July 2020 jumped by the most (+0.62%) in almost thirty years. After having dropped month-over-month for three months in a row for the first time in its history, it has posted back to back gains the latest of which pushing the index back above its February level.

Read More »

Science of Sentiment: Zooming Expectations Wonder

2020-08-12

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-08-12

It had been an unusually heated gathering, one marked by temper tantrums and often publicly expressed rancor. Slamming tables, undiplomatic rudeness. Europe’s leaders had been brought together by the uncomfortable even dangerous fact that the economic dislocation they’ve put their countries through is going to sustain enormously negative pressures all throughout them. What would a “united” European system do to try and fill in this massive hole?The...

Read More »

Purchasing Managers Indigestion

2020-08-06

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-08-06

Europe ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment, Jan 2017 - Jul 2020

There’s already doubt given how the two major series supposedly measuring the same thing seemingly can’t agree. If the rebound was truly robust, it would show up unambiguously everywhere. But IHS Markit’s purchasing managers indices struggled to get back above 50 in July, barely getting there, suggesting the economy might be slowing or even stalling way too close to the bottom.

Read More »

Accusing the Accused of Excusing the Mountain of Evidence

2020-08-03

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-08-03

Why not let the accused also sit in the jury box? The answer seems rather obvious. While maybe the truly honest man accused of a crime he did commit would vote for his own conviction, the world seems a bit short on supply of those while long and deep offering up practitioners of pure sophistry in their stead.

Read More »

A Japanese Stall?

2020-07-24

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-07-24

In sharp contrast to the sentimental deference towards central bank stimulus exhibited by Germany’s ZEW, for example, similar Japanese surveys are starting to describe potential trouble developing. Like Germany, Japan is a bellwether country and a pretty reliable indicator of global economy performance.

Read More »

Transitory, The Other Way

2020-07-18

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-07-18

After a record three straight months of decline for the seasonally-adjusted core CPI March through May 2020, it turned upward again in June. Buoyed by a partially reopened economy, the price discounting (prerequisite to the Big D) took at least one month off.

Read More »

Wait A Minute, The Dollar And The Fed’s Bank Reserves Are Directly Not Inversely Related

2020-07-17

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-07-17

One small silver lining to the current situation, while Jay Powell is busily trying to sell you his inflation fantasy, he’s actually undermining it at the very same time. No mere challenge to his own “money printing” fiction, either, the Fed’s Chairman is actively disproving the entire enterprise. While he says what he says, pay close attention instead to what he’s done.

Read More »

Monthly Market Monitor – July 2020

2020-07-07

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2020-07-07

Most Long-Term Trends Have Not Changed. A lot has changed over the last 4 months since the COVID virus started to impact the global economy. Asia was infected first with China at ground zero. Their economy succumbed first with a large part of the country shut down to a degree that can only be accomplished in an authoritarian regime.

Read More »

Wait A Minute, What’s This Inversion?

2020-06-28

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2020-06-28

Back in the middle of 2018, this kind of thing was at least straight forward and intuitive. If there was any confusion, it wasn’t related to the mechanics, rather most people just couldn’t handle the possibility this was real. Jay Powell said inflation, rate hikes, and accelerating growth. Absolutely hawkish across-the-board.And yet, all the way back in the middle of June 2018 the eurodollar curve started to say, hold on a minute.

Read More »

Monthly Macro Monitor – June 2020

2020-06-19

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2020-06-19

TSA checkpoint travel numbers for 2020 and 2019

The stock market has recovered most of its losses from the March COVID-19 induced sell-off and the enthusiasm with which stocks are being bought – and sold but mostly bought – could lead one to believe that the crisis is over, that the economy has completely or nearly completely recovered. Unfortunately, other markets do not support that notion nor does the available economic data.

Read More »