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Great Graphic: Oil Recovery Extends

Oil prices extend last week's rally. Last week's rally was driven by the fall of gasoline inventories. Today's advance was helped by speculation over next month's IEA meeting.

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Great Graphic: Real Broad Trade-Weighted Dollar

The real broad trade-weighted dollar index rose in July for the third month. It peaked in January above trendline drawn through the Reagan and Clinton dollar rallies. Expect the trendline to be violated again before the end of the year.

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Great Graphic: Relative Performance of Bank Stocks–US, Europe, and Japan

MSCI US Bank Index, MSCI European Bank Index and the Japan Topix Bank Index compared. Divergence in the health of the financial sector.

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Great Graphic: How the US Recovery Stacks Up

The US recovery may have surpassed the 2001 recovery in Q2. Though disappointing, the recovery has been faster than average from a balance sheet crisis. Although slow, it is hard to see the secular stagnation in the data.

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European Banks Bad Loans and Coverage

European banks are worrisome. EBA's stress test results will be out at the end of the week. Nonperforming loans are a separate issue, but also need to be addressed.

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Great Graphic: OIl Breaks Down Further

With today's losses the Sept contract has retraced 50% of this year's rally. The oil glut has partly been transformed into a gasoline glut. US rig count is rising and output has increased two weeks in a row.

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Great Graphic: Aussie Approaches Two-Month Uptrend

Australian dollar is the second heaviest currency this week after a key downside reversal at the end of last week. It is approaching an uptrend line near $0.7450. Many perceive an increased likelihood that the RBA eases and many are reassessing chance of a Fed hike later this year.

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Great Graphic: Equities Since Brexit

Since the UK voted to leave the EU, emerging market equities have outperformed equities from the developed markets. This Great Graphic, composed on Bloomberg, shows the MSCI Emerging Market equities (yellow line) and the MSCI World Index of developed equities (white line).

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Why Profitability Matters and Market Forces Are Not Random

The tenets of the Efficient Market Hypothesis and Modern Portfolio Theory. It is widely held that financial asset markets always fully reflect all available and relevant information, and that adjustment to new information is virtually instantaneous.

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Start paying 10% tax: Get Your Swiss Domicile



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Great Graphic: The Yuan’s Weakness

Don't be fooled, the yuan has fallen more against its basket that against the dollar this year. It is not clear what China means by stable. Market forces appear to be moving in the same direction as officials wish.

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Great Graphic: What are UK Equities Doing?

Domestic-oriented UK companies have been marked down. The outperformance by UK's global companies is a negative view of sterling. The drop in interest rates is in anticipation of a recession and easier BOE policy.

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Great Graphic: Sterling Monthly Chart and Outlook

Sterling's losses are not simply a product of thin liquidity or panic. Both main political parties are in disarray just when strong leadership is needed. The rough projection pre-vote of what could happen on Brexit suggests $1.20-$!.2750.

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Quitting the Cucumber Affair

  Winners and Quitters Vince Lombardi, the famous American football coach, once said, “Winners never quit and quitters never win.”  Maybe he meant that winners overcome obstacles to reach their goals while quitters give up and fall short… or somethin...

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Panama Tax Haven Scandal: The Bigger Picture

The “Panama Papers” tax haven leak is big … After all, the Prime Minister of Iceland resigned over the leak, and investigations are taking place worldwide over the leak. But the Panama Papers reporting mainly focuses on friends of Russia’s Putin, Ass...

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Great Graphic: Oil Flirts with Four-Month Uptrend

The broader technical tone has weakened.  The RSI has turned lower.  The MACDs are also turning lower with a bearish divergence.  The five-day moving average may move below the 20-day moving average for the first time since mid-April later this week....

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Democratic Deficit: Is the UK Referendum the Tip of the Iceberg?

One of the most profound criticisms of the EU that it remains, even at this late date, primarily an elite project.  The democratic deficit has grown, according to the latest Pew Research multi-country poll. The Pew Research sur...

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Wealth Management Products: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Wealh Management Products issuance equaled $1.1 trillion in 2015, a nearly 75% jump on the prior year and equaling 40% of the total growth in credit. Almost one-third of the WMP were bought by credit institutions for inclusion in other WMP – WMP Squared!

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Great Graphic: Despite Higher Oil Prices, Middle East Pegs Remain Under Pressure

With today’s gains, the price of Brent has nearly doubled from its lows in January. Of course, the price of oil is still less than half of levels that prevailed two years ago.  At the same time, many leveraged investors cast a jaundiced eye toward currency pegs.  Many have concluded that the Middle East currency pegs …

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Great Graphic: Brexit Risks Rise

Brexit Predict This Great Graphic shows the price people are willing to pay to bet that the UK votes to leave the EU at the June 23 referendum on the PredictIt events markets.   We included the lower chart to give some sense of volume of activity on this wager in this event market. Presently, one … Continue reading »

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