Category Archive: 2) Swiss and European Macro

George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

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TARGET-2 Revisited

2018-08-03

by Pater Tenebrarum

2018-08-03

Capital Flight vs. The Effect of QE. Mish recently discussed the ever increasing imbalances of the euro zone’s TARGET-2 payment system again in response to a few articles which played down their significance. He followed this up with a nice plug for us by posting a comment we made on the subject. Here is a chart of the most recent data on TARGET-2 available from the ECB; we included the four largest balances, namely those of Germany, Italy, Spain...

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Swiss Consumer Sentiment Falls Almost back to its Average

2018-08-02

by Swiss Statistics

2018-08-02

Switzerland Consumer Confidence Survey, daily July 2018

Consumer sentiment in Switzerland has almost dropped back to its long-term average. While consumers still expect a positive economic development, they are less optimis-tic than in recent quarters. Consumers' expectations regarding their own budget also remain subdued, while they adjusted their assessment of inflation upwards. Corre-spondingly, the likelihood of consumers making major purchases remains low.

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Swiss Retail Sales, June: +1.1 percent Nominal and +0.3 percent Real

2018-08-02

by Swiss Statistics

2018-08-02

Turnover in the retail sector rose by 1.1% in nominal terms in June 2018 compared with the previous year. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover rose by 0.6% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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Vorsicht vor dem DAX!

2018-08-01

by Lars Erichsen

► TIPP: Sichere Dir wöchentlich meine Tipps zu Gold, Aktien, ETFs & Co. – 100% gratis: http://lars-erichsen.de/ Ihr wollt in den Aktienmarkt investieren? Eine sehr gute Idee. Aber ist der allseits bekannte Dax auch der richtige Index für euch, oder gibt es noch andere lohnenswerte Aktien? Das besprechen wir in diesem Video. Los geht´s! ——– …

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Revising our euro area 2018 GDP growth forecast down

2018-08-01

by Nadia Gharbi

2018-08-01

Euro area real GDP growth and EC economic sentiment index, 2005 - 2018

The cut to our growth forecast reflects slippage in euro area data.According to Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate, euro area real GDP expanded by 0.3% q-o-q in Q2 2018, below consensus expectations. This was the weakest growth in two years and is down slightly from GDP growth of 0.4% q-o-q in Q1.Following today’s GDP growth data and recent economic indicators, we have revised down our GDP growth forecast for 2018.

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Währungsmanipulation – Realität oder Fake News?

2018-08-01

by Robert Halver

US-Präsident Trump bezichtigt die Länder mit Handelsbilanzüberschüssen wie China oder die EU und besonders gerne Deutschland der künstlichen Währungsmanipulation. Ist dieser Vorwurf berechtigt? Wenn nein, warum wird er dann erhoben? Wenn ja, wer betreibt Währungsdumping mit welchen Maßnahmen? Und was bedeuten Währungsabwertungswettläufe für die Finanzmärkte? Robert Halver mit seiner Beurteilung des vermeintlichen Währungsabwertungskriegs aus dem...

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KOF Economic Barometer, July: Remains Practically Unchanged

2018-07-30

by KOF Zurich

2018-07-30

The KOF Economic Barometer only slightly moved in July. Compared to its June value, it decreased by 0.2 to 101.1 points. The current Barometer value still stands slightly above the long-term average of 100 points; it thus indicates a slightly above-average economic development in Switzerland in the coming months.

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Amazon, Facebook… Verluste vorprogrammiert?

2018-07-30

by Lars Erichsen

► TIPP: Sichere Dir wöchentlich meine Tipps zu Gold, Aktien, ETFs & Co. – 100% gratis: http://lars-erichsen.de/ Amazon, Facebook und andere der FANG-Aktien waren die Highflyer des Jahres 2017, für einige gilt das auch 2018. Aber haben diese Aktien auch das Potenzial, den Markt im Falle einer Korrektur in die Tiefe zu reißen? Das ist …

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Pictet – The Family Consilium (Abridged version)

2018-07-30

by Pictet

The world is becoming increasingly unpredictable, as new geopolitical faultlines emerge and challenge the long-held status quo. This was the key lesson to emerge from the Pictet Family Consilium, which took place in the Swiss mountain resort of Gstaad in June. The central theme of this year’s exclusive biannual event was ‘“Who Owns the Future?”. …

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Pictet – The Family Consilium (Full version)

2018-07-30

by Pictet

French Q2 GDP growth marks time

2018-07-29

by Nadia Gharbi

2018-07-29

A number of one-off factors hurt growth dynamics, but there are many reasons to think that expansion will pick up in the rest of this year. France is the first country in the euro area to publish Q2 GDP figures. The economy expanded by 0.2% q-o-q in Q2, the same pace as the previous quarter and below consensus expectations of 0.3%.

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Ceasefire in US/EU tariff dispute

2018-07-28

by Nadia Gharbi

2018-07-28

EU and US: average trade tariff rate 1990-2018

The two sides have agreed to discuss lowering barriers to transatlantic trade, helping to de-escalate tensions. While positive, the US’s dispute with China still needs watching.US President Trump and EU Commission President Juncker this week struck an unexpected deal to de-escalate the trade dispute between the EU and the US.

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Message from the ECB: Enjoy summer!

2018-07-27

by Nadia Gharbi

2018-07-27

Today’s Governing Council meeting did little to break the seasonal torpor. We continue to expect its first rate hike to come in September 2019. There was no change in interest rates or forward guidance at today’s ECB Governing Council meeting.

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Die besten Langfrist-Aktien aus dem DAX

2018-07-25

by Lars Erichsen

► TIPP: Sichere Dir wöchentlich meine Tipps zu Gold, Aktien, ETFs & Co. – 100% gratis: http://lars-erichsen.de/ Die besten Langfrist-Aktien aus dem DAX sollte man kennen. Wenn man sich für die Aktienanlage interessiert, was kauft man dann? Qualitätsunternehmen! Was ist eine Aktie, die über 15 Jahre besser läuft als alle anderen Aktien? Ein Qualitätsunternehmen! Welches …

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Euro Area Lending Dynamics in Good Shape

2018-07-25

by Nadia Gharbi

2018-07-25

Euro Area M3 and Annual Growth in Loan to Private Sector

The ECB’s M3 and credit report for June just published confirms that lending dynamics continue to be in a good shape in the euro area, boding well for private investment. Bank credit flows to non-financial corporations (adjusted for seasonal effects and securitisations) amounted to €10bn in June, down from €25bn in May.

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Kehrt die handelspolitische Vernunft nach dem 6. November 2018 zurück?

2018-07-25

by Robert Halver

Bei der am 6. November 2018 anstehenden US-Kongresswahl will US-Präsident Trump die republikanische Mehrheit erhalten, um bei Gesetzesvorhaben bloß nicht von den Demokraten abhängig zu sein. Dazu setzt er auf das populäre Thema Handelsprotektionismus, obwohl er Amerika damit ins eigene (finanz-)wirtschaftliche Fleisch schneidet. Wird rationalen Argumenten in Washington überhaupt noch Bedeutung beigemessen oder kommt die …

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Euro area PMIs on the soft side

2018-07-24

by Nadia Gharbi

2018-07-24

Euro Area GDP Growth and Composite PMI, 2005 - 2018

Markit’s euro area flash PMI surveys for July came in on the soft side. The composite PMI for the euro area fell to 54.3 in July from 54.9 in June, below consensus expectations. At the sector level, the manufacturing PMI index rose marginally, putting a halt to six consecutive months of decline.

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Türkei: Kurssturz = Chance?

2018-07-23

by Lars Erichsen

► TIPP: Sichere Dir wöchentlich meine Tipps zu Aktien, ETFs, Gold, & Co. – 100% gratis: http://lars-erichsen.de/ Türkische Aktien sind in den letzten Monaten massiv eingebrochen. Die Türkei und insbesondere die Widerwahl Erdogans ist großes Thema in den Medien. Ist dieser Kurssturz in türkischen Aktien, für spekulative Investoren vielleicht auch eine Einstiegsgelegenheit? Das werden wir …

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Swiss Trade Balance June 2018: Fifth consecutive record of exports

2018-07-20

by George Dorgan

2018-07-20

Swiss exports and imports, seasonally adjusted (in bn CHF), June 2018

The dynamism shown by exports since the beginning of 2017 continued in the second quarter of 2018. They are thus flying from record to record for the fifth quarter in a row. Imports, on the other hand, came to a standstill, at a high level, however, after posting strong growth in previous quarters. The trade balance closes on a surplus of 4.6 billion francs.

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