Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Sell Signals Becoming More Over-sold–Yet Markets Remain Under Pressure

2022-01-18

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(1/18/22) Real Yields are on the Rise. Market's Friday sell-off retested the trend line from October's lows, but bounced back nicely. This morning, we'll re-test lower support trend lines again. Sell signals currently keeping markets under pressure are becoming more over-sold. Markets could have an opportunity to rally, but it is doubtful that we'll re-achieve all-time highs in the market at this time--in fact, we may have already seen the markets'...

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Holding Cash Like an Emotional Snuggie

2022-01-15

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What in the hell does climate change have to do with the Fed's primary mandates? Meanwhile, Americans' financial confidence index continues to slide, and financial wellness surveys dip lower; when you meet with a "financial planner," what is their real role? Holding Cash for double-digit Returns--pipedream or emotional snuggie? 0:00 - Market Commentary, The Fed, & Climate Change 8:21 - American Financial Wellness & Confidence...

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The Fed’s No-win Fight on Inflation

2022-01-14

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Are academian's about to learn the lesson of "no free lunch? What 7% CPI really means in terms of real wages vs inflation; How do you decrease inflation? The political mistake of giving people money instead of supporting the creation of productivity; Jeremy Siegel and The Minksy Moment re-defined; Real assets vs stocks; Bonds vs Stocks--and why we own bonds. 1:13 - SEG-1: What 7% CPI Really Means 12:26 - How Do You Decrease Inflation? 28:13 -...

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Use the Rally to Rebalance–but to where?

2022-01-13

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(1/13/22) What's hot & what's not? Stocks are still on a rally above the 50- and 20-DMA, still on a sell-signal, but money flows are turning positive--suggesting that markets could rally above all new highs. We're using this rally to rebalance portfolio risk--but rebalance to where? Bonds have also gotten extremely oversold, pushing 3-standard deviations below the 50-DMA. Bond prices are starting to recover, with yields coming down, plenty of...

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Does One-Size Really Fit-All? Part-2

2022-01-13

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This is the second portion of today's show, interrupted during Segment-2 for unknown technical reasons! The first portion can be reviewed here: &list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 The remainder of the show is as follows: 0:42 - The Fed is adamant about adhering to plan of multiple rate hikes this year 15:12 - Post-Pandemic Spending & Prudent Asset Allocation 29:55 - Asset Allocation; Vanguard Target Fund; Self Directed...

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Aggressive-Sounding Fed Rate Policy Juices Markets

2022-01-12

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(1/12/22) After receiving Joe Biden's nod to continue as Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome voiced a need for more aggressive rate hiking campaigns, and tapering the Fed's balance sheet even more rapidly this year. This will extract liquidity from the markets. Powell believes the battle to be fought will be high inflation--but what's being missed is the fact that the economic recovery had been fueled by massive liquidity injections--such liquidity is...

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One-Size-Fits-All? Episode, Part-1

2022-01-12

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This is the first portion of today's show, interrupted during the second segment for unknown reasons! Jerome Powell now thinks it's time to raise rates and clear the Fed's balance sheets, seeming to ignore the past effects of $5-Trillion in artificial liquidity pumped into the economy. 1:35 - Ready for a holiday...again; Jerome Powell Commentary 12:51 - Deathwish Coffee; Black Rifle Coffee Co; programmus interuptus... [TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES...

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How High Will Markets Bounce…or flounce?

2022-01-12

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Has Inflation Begun to Erode Earnings? Rising Wages are showing up at lower end of wage scales; pay differentials for work from home vs work at office; Passive Investing and the bear market mirage; What happens when all this reverses? Markets are fine--until liquidity shifts; The Fed has no ability to really control economy, and has failed for years. Will this be a rotation back to Value? 1:28 - The Impact of Passive Indexing on this Market 12:36...

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Are Tech Stocks Ready to Rally after their Recent Beating?

2022-01-11

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(1/11/22) Tech Stocks were under the gun in Monday morning's action, but by midday, the sector experienced a turnaround, breaking through three standard deviation levels from the 50-DMA. This is a short-term bullish set-up for the Nasdaq. Bollinger Bands have compressed a good bit. A rally here should start to spread those bands. Concerns over interest rates, inflation, and Fed liquidity should suggest a bit more choppiness in the index. This would...

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Inflation is The Big Game Changer for 2022

2022-01-11

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How to keep proper perspective as liquidity begins to drain, and dealing with obscenely lofty earnings expectations for 2022. The FaceBook name change does not change its stripes--or fundamentals; How ETF's rehash liquidity; What will next crisis catalyst be? Why Tesla market cap + all other automakers markets caps cannot be the same. 1:59 - Keeping Proper Perspective as Liquidity Unravels 13:22 - Inflation Is the Big Game Changer for 2022 29:16 -...

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Markets Are Under Pressure–Can We Hold December’s Lows?

2022-01-10

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(1/6/22) Markets are pointing lower with the S&P looking to break the 50-DMA; the big question today is whether the selling is almost over. There remains a money flow sell signal, and markets are not entirely over-sold just yet. There is more downside risk to the market, and a retest of the lower range of standard deviations is certainly within the context of a pullback. Nothing major has occurred, other than going through a correctional...

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Five of the Best Money Ideas for 2022

2022-01-08

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As the Fed prepares to pull back liquidity, what expectations should be set for market behavior? Is the "F-word" being used way too much? (What 'Fiduciary' really means); The ins and outs of Roth IRAs; providing flexibility in retirement. 1:38 - Setting Expectations for 2022 12:50 - What "Fiduciary Really Means 28:50 -Tex-Mex, Queso, & Roth IRAs 42:53 - Flexibility in Retirement Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial...

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What Happens when the Fed Takes Away the Punchbowl?

2022-01-07

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The Markets' Wednesday reaction to Fed Minutes on Rasing Rates was the worst on record--but was it justified? Will the Fed's panic attack result in another collossal policy blunder? A long term look at Automobile sector and chip fiascos. Is the Fed's "normalization" the rigth approach? 1:27 - Market Reaction to Fed: Worst Response on Record? 12:30 - Will the Fed Panic into Another Policy Mistake? 28:27 - How Does the Fed Clear Its Balance...

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Was Wednesday’s Market Sell-off All That Bad?

2022-01-06

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(1/6/22) Markets' sharp sell off on Fed Minutes stating a reduction of its balance sheet--essentially, taking away the punch bowl and hiding it. But was it all so bad? Looking at Market performance from a longer-term perspective, going back to March 2020, the correction we saw yesterday is well within the norms of the bullish trend under which we've been operating. But--is this time different? The pattern of rallies, consolidation, and re-testing...

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Why Does the Fed Always Raise Rates at the Wrong Time?

2022-01-06

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What Happens when Biden Child Tax Credit Leaves? Will 2022 be a year of higher volatility? What happens as liquidity leaves the market and things return to "normal?" Why does the Fed always raise rates at the wrong time? 1:51 - The Aftermath of Excess Liquidity 13:07 - Will Liquidity and Speculation Define 2022? 29:03 -What Happens When the Liquidity Leaves? 43:03 -Being Responsive, not Reactive to Markets Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief...

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Markets Return to a Familiar Pattern

2022-01-05

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(1/5/22) Markets are getting their mojo back following the Santa Claus rally in December, in a repetition of a pattern we've observed over the past year. At some point, we'll likely see this break out to the downside. Of particular note is the next Options Expiration in the third week of the month, because all previous corrections to the 50-DMA have occurred in the weeks of options expirations. The risk of a correction to the 50-DMA is not out of...

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Investor Resolutions for 2022

2022-01-05

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Market commentary on the first 5-days of January, and why 4Q prints should be great; the Fed's challenge is how to raise raises 4x this year. Investor resolutions and secrets of the Gymnasium biz; good resolutions require sacrifice; markets' high flyers take a tumble; hard to take Wall St. seriously amid portfolio re-jiggering. 1:51 - Market Performance for 1st 5-Days of January 13:04 - Gymnasium Business & Investor Resolutions 29:05 - Investor...

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What Are Bonds Doing While Stocks Rally to all-time highs?

2022-01-04

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(1/4/22) A big conundrum in 2022 will be the impact of inflation and tighter monetary policy effects on interest rates, which will impact economic growth and financial markets because of the relationship between the risk-free aspect rate vs. equity valuations. Rising inflation would suggest a hike in levels of interest rates pacing inflation. We control our portfolio risk by lengthening or shortening the duration of our bond holdings. With falling...

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2022 Preview Episode

2022-01-04

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Our New Year Market preview, and the funny thing about averages; will bullish trend continue? Geopolitics, mid-terms, and policy changes; warning against recency bias; how job births & deaths impact reality; NFIB reporting vs small cap stocks' performance; why small cap business confidence matters. 0:00 - Will 2022 Be a Year of More Market Volatility? 8:02 - Will Bullish Mood Continue? 24:02 - Birth & Death & Job Creation 38:04 - Small...

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What’s In Store for 2022?

2022-01-03

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(1/3/22) What will the first trading day of 2022 portend for markets? Who can tell? The first five days of January tend to be fairly positive as mutual funds position themselves for the new year. Markets did finish higher for the end of the year, and trends remain positive. Money Flow signals are moving into overbought territory, and by mid-month, we may see a pullback towards the 50-DMA. However, the risk of a short-term correction will likely...

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