Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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How to use Rallies to Lower Risk | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-03-08

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(3/8/22) Markets sold off on Monday, breaking through support all the way back to October's levels. Markets are not yet on a sell-signal, and not really all that over-sold--meaning, there's still some downside risk with which to be reckoned. We will likely re-test the intra-day lows established when Russia invaded Ukraine. Sentiment remains negative--the CNN Fear & Greed gauge is in the "extreme fear" category. This would suggest we...

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Is Recession on the Way?

2022-03-08

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(3/8/22) The cost of filling your tank just got real, and it's effectively pulling liquidity out of the market, and slowing down economic growth. Earnings Estimates are too optimistic with consumers having less to spend as a result of higher energy costs. This could bring on Recession before the end of the year. Just because NASDAQ has declined 20% does not make it a bear market--it's the trend that counts. We're primed for a reflexive rally. Do...

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How to Control Your Emotions During Market Turmoil | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-03-07

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(3/7/22) Why be invested now, with all the turmoil in the world? Controlling your emotions will help you avoid making mistakes with long-term disadvantages. While markets have started 2022 with a 10% decline (normal in any year), investor anchoring can skew your view: when compared to the all-time highs of October 2021, today's markets are only off by about 3%. The reality is that markets really haven't gone anywhere since last October. The...

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Crude Oil Price Inflation Isn’t Over

2022-03-07

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(3/7/22) It might take a short-term loan for your next fill-up: Crude Oil price inflation isn't over; are we seeing the death of ESG investing in the face of fiscal reality? The flaw in investor anchoring--and market perspective. Why high oil prices are essentially tightening money supply; the true cause of inflation, per Milton Friedman (it's Washington's fault); Word of the Day: "Slowbalization." There are two sides to every...

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Saving Money in Inflationary Times

2022-03-04

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(3/4/22) Girl Scout Cookie Season returns with a vengeance; selling techniques & economic impact. Market performance continues to baffle,. Why is everyone's side-job selling Real Estate? the importance of teaching kids the value of money and delayed gratification; money saving lessons for today from the Great Depression: eliminating recurring charges, lowering credit card rates, paying with cash, keeping up with automobile maintenance, Raising...

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Hiking Rates Into Peak Valuations Is A Mistake

2022-03-04

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2022-03-04

Hiking rates into a wildly overvalued market is potentially a mistake. So says Bank of America in a recent article. Optimists expecting the stock market to weather the rate-hike cycle as they’ve done in the past are missing one important detail, according to Bank of America Corp.’s strategists.While U.S. equities saw positive returns during previous periods of rate increases, the key risk this time round is that the Federal Reserve will be...

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What Markets Need to Rally | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-03-03

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(3/3/22) Markets liked what Jerome Powell had to say to Congress, and continue to consolidate off over-sold conditions of a few days ago, holding support from January's lows. Markets remain in a bullish position, with stock buy backs very supportive of large-caps. Despite geopolitics and inflationary pressures, markets have held their own, going through a corrective process. However, there is still risk to the downside: There are three resistance...

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The Perfect Set-up for a Bear Market

2022-03-03

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(3/3/22) Markets seem to be doing great, but most of the support is coming from corporate share buy-backs, now at record high levels. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's first day of testimony was well-received on Wall St. Energy makes up 7% of GDP, but actually touches all aspects of daily life. Pricing Gasoline at 9/10ths Gallon; Bear Market Strategies, and what Volatility means. There's no direct link between Quantitative Easing and stock prices--just...

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Will Jerome Powell Take a Dovish Perch? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-03-02

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(3/2/22) Russia surrounds Kiev, markets sell-off under continuing pressure, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell prepares to testify before Congress: His comments could provide the octane to spur markets higher...or... Markets are set to rally again after re-testing support in a bid to consolidate above January & October's lows. With sentiment decidedly dour, what is needed is good news, which could come from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his remarks to...

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March Off to a Weak Start – Will We Recover?

2022-03-02

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(3/2/22) Markets commence the month of March in weak fashion as the Atlanta Fed reports GSP growth at 0.0%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to address Congress and the tone of his comments could sway markets bullishly or bearishly. Joe Biden's State of the Union addressed problems facing the country, but no realistic solutions to economic challenges. The good thing about oil prices; the only cure for high prices is...high prices. Q1 Earnings...

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What is the VIX Telling Us About a Rally in March? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-03-01

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(3/1/22) Markets are opening lower over concerns about Russia, but the VIX is telling a slightly different story: Remember when we shut down the economy in March 2020?? Runaway volatility was based on uncertainty seeded by the COVID epidemic. Most recently, despite the 10% market correction over the last two months, concerns and sell-offs over the Fed's hiking of interest rates, liquidity, and the Russian invasion, volatility has risen only mildly....

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Oil Stocks Get a Boost from Russian Invasion

2022-03-01

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(3/1/22) Markets are holding-up, despite the distractions of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but still remain in a downward trend. There is still possibility of Russian default on debt, with implications for Banking system. Markets are still skittish over liquidity, and looking for a reason to reflexively rally. Cryptocurrencies are being asked to block Russian transactions. Green agenda is being derailed as oil prices hit $100/bbl. Energy...

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Sell Energy Stocks? The Time May Be Approaching

2022-03-01

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2022-03-01

“Sell Energy Stocks” Was Originally Published At Marketwatch.com Sell energy stocks? Such certainly seems counter-intuitive advice given high oil prices, geopolitical stress, and surging inflation. However, some issues suggest this could indeed be the time to “sell high.” Before we go further, it is essential to state that I am not recommending selling energy stocks in total. As is always the case, portfolio management is...

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Markets Swift Response to Russian Invasion | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-02-28

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(2/28/22) Russia's exclusion from the SWIFT system puts banking transactions and risk, and that's weighing on markets. Lot's of volatility afoot as traders try to figure out what this means in terms of market risk. Last week's rally is resulting in a bit of a selloff this morning. Gold is doing much better as a safe-haven play, but the commodity is now very over-bought. If you've been long gold, now's the time to take some profits. Oil is up on...

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Economic Consequences of Putting the Squeeze on Putin

2022-02-28

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(2/28/22) Russia's ill-advised invasion of Ukraine is having international repercussions, as domestic markets experience the biggest downturn since 2020. Oil prices are up $4/bbl as OPEC declines to boost production, and Russia is placed in time-out by SWIFT. Commodity prices are surging to 1973 highs, and interestingly, Cryptocurrencies are flailing in the crisis. SWIFT removal creates counter-party risk; market sentiment remains bearish. What...

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How Americans Will Feel the Pain of Ukraine

2022-02-26

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(2/25/22) Markets' surprising close on Thursday (2/24) proves how emotional investors can be; how economic effects will be felt in the U.S. The Fed's reaction and response: "We will not be dissuaded from hiking rates." We'll see. Retirees are looking anew at Social Security as a bridge alternative for annuities; critical examination of taking Social Security at 64 or 67 instead of holding out until 70. 1:54 - Coffee Spills & The...

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How Russian Invasion of Ukraine Impacts Your Money | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-02-24

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(2/24/22) Markets will open sharply lower following the overnight invasion of Ukraine by Russia. In anticipation, markets closed lower Wednesday (2/23), right on support set back in October 2021. How much more is there to go? We look to markets' previous responses for clues. Russia invaded Ukraine over a disagreement about Crimea in 2014. Markets then responded with the understanding there would be a resolution to the conflict in short order. That...

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How Will the Fed Respond to Russian Invasion?

2022-02-24

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(2/24/22) Russia Invades Ukraine--what's next? The Big Question for the US is what the Federal Reserve is likely to do in response--pausing rate hikes and balance sheet shuffling? The key point for investors is to not overreact as markets capitulate. The political implications of Russia-Ukrainian conflict-out comes unknown. It is interesting to see the effects on Gold and Bitcoin. 1:53 - How to React to Russian Invasion 13:18 - Fiscal Fallout of...

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How to Use the Coming Correction to Your Advantage | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-02-23

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(2/23/22) Markets dip into correction territory, thanks to pressures from slowing earnings growth, higher inflation, the Federal Reserve, and Russian headlines. Markets Tuesday did hold support at January's lows, and should actually be positioned to rally, thanks to very negative, bullish sentiment across the board. As markets re-test support, they're over-sold on all levels, and we're looking for a reflexive rally back to the previous downtrend....

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Is Consumer Buying About to Go Bust?

2022-02-23

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(2/23/22) Geopolitical tensions, Inflation, and the spectre of rising interest rates may already be providing the Fed with enough gravity to fight inflationary pressures: Might the Fed be able to avoid a rate hike? Why Hindsight Bias and Anchoring are two bad habits that can thwart your portfolio performance during market downturns; why it's too late to buy into the oil surge; if you're buying what everyone else is, you've already missed the...

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