Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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The Year of Shortages & High Inflation

2022-05-17

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(5/17/22) Congress is investigating UFO's while the economy is running off the rails and inflation rages. Market performance and "cash on the sidelines;" the worst start to the year for markets since The Great Depression; the Year of Shortages and high prices now includes a baby formula shortage that was self-inflicted; negative sentiment is so prevalent, it has crept into consumer behavior; why Ben Bernanke didn't want to...

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What do Kim Kardashian & The Market Have in Common? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-16

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(5/16/22) Markets put in a big bottom last week--at least for the short term. Even though markets finished down for the day on Thursday, they rallied back above the open, setting up a green candle, and establishing a test of the level at three standard-deviations from the 50-DMA. Friday's subsequent rally pushed the index up to within two standard-deviations from the 50-DMA, and got close to triggering a money flow buy signal in a market that was...

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Time to Reconsider Bitcoin?

2022-05-16

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(5/16/22) Markets' performance last week would tend to set-up for an opportunity to rally--but will it stick? Analysts' earnings estimates are still way too high; comparing nuclear explosions, road trip cuisine vs gas station food; what we don't want to see today. Markets are doing their best to frustrate investors; use the coming rally to correct mistakes. The saga of Chicken Salad Chick; Why Joe Biden's Deficit Reduction plan will fail; fun with...

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Cryptocoins Under Pressure | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-12

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(5/12/22) Markets remain under pressure after April CPI numbers show hotter-than-expected inflation. But looking at longer-term charts can give a better understanding of where we've been...and where we're going. Are we over-bought, or over-sold, and where is the downside risk, and where is the potential support, moving forward? The S&P is currently 3-standard-deviations below the 50-week Moving Average, and money flow indicators are also...

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Inflation: The Hotter the Better?

2022-05-12

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(5/12/22) (5/12/22) Inflation is running hotter than the Fed would like; the major indexes are masking the reality of underlying stocks' plight; dealing with margin debt is playing a role in market's performance; 4 out of 8 CPI sectors were elevated in April--oddly, Energy was not one of them. Month/Month and Year/Year comparisons actually showed a decline; former Fed'er Bill Dudley continues to call out the FOMC for its "handling" of the...

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Will CPI Be Sticky? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-11

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(5/11/22) The CPI inflation print for April could affect markets today--will it come in softly, or reflect a stronger print from April 2021. If inflation wanes, will the Fed be less aggressive? If so, that's an encouraging sign for growth stocks in particular. The market Tuesday did try to rally, but failed; markest are still deeply over-sold on every metric we track, so a lot of fuel remains for a rally. Any good news on inflation would tend to...

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Beware of Recency Bias!

2022-05-11

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(5/11/22) Utopia vs Dystopia is like theory vs reality: Why the Government's solution for fighting inflation never works; Should you buy the dip? Why buy the market bottom is a bear trap for investors; the best investment I ever made; what advisors are telling people that's good and bad; recency bias and investor psychology; contrarian investing strategies; Benchmarking progress over a two-year span; Why you should get out of the market now....

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Sentiment is So Bearish, It’s Bullish | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-10

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(5/10/22) Markets have been deeply over-sold, with sentiment so bearish, it's bullish. Be careful not to throw in the towel, just yet. Markets did sell-off all day Monday, resulting in one of the top-five leading sell-off days in history for retail investors. At three standard deviations below the mean, the S&P is trading 11% below the 200-DMA. But just last year, we were talking about the S&P trading 12% above the mean, setting up for a...

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The Relentless Fed

2022-05-10

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(5/10/22) Monday's market Capitulation actually smelled like margin calls coming home to roost; as financial conditions continue to tighten, the Fed is relentless in its squeeze. The inflation now was caused by "free" money (which isn't); the best course for the Fed now is to do nothing, and allow inflation to run its course in curing itself. Low volatility begets high volatility, and investor sentiment now is so bearish...it's bullish....

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Are We Near the Bottom? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-09

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(5/9/22) Concerns over Fed speakers and Inflation numbers releases this week, as markets begin trading deep in the red; will we see inflation's peak--and with that, a softer stance by the Fed? Markets are starting the week down three standard-deviations from the 50-DMA. Professional, Retail, and Positioning sentiment are all quite pessimistic across the board; technical indicators are over-sold on virtually every level. At this point, it's...

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What Will Inflation Tell Us This Week?

2022-05-09

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(5/9/22) The psychological pressure on investors created by inflation is very real, and makes folks prone to making mistakes. Inflation's interesting comparisons, April to April; Inflation numbers are not reflective of what we're actually living; Consumers' resort to credit card debt to pay bill. The metrics of inflation vs reality; the fallacy of a Fed "soft landing;" signs we are at or near inflation's peak; Rich Strike & Market...

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Financial Fitness Friday (5/6/22)

2022-05-06

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live daily on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA Pro Free Trial: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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The Truth About Life Insurance

2022-05-05

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0:47 - Worried About Government Over-reach? Want to Create a Super-Roth? Want a Tax-free Retirement Income? Want to Build a Judgement-Proof Estate? Want to Eliminate the Risk of Estate Taxes? 2:29 - Why do you have--or why consider--Life Insurance? 5:00 - Term Coverage--the "Alka Seltzer" of Insurance 5:35 - Term Life Pro's 7:54 - Term Life Con's 9:00 - Permanent Insurance Tax-Free Accumulation vs Roth IRA 9:55 - Term Life Insurance...

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No surprises from Fed – where do we go from here? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-05

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(5/5/22) Jerome Powell's announced 50-basis-points rate hike was as expected--but the Fed added a dovish tone by slowing the rate of tapering on its balance sheet. With Professional and Retail investor sentiment at some of the lowest levels we've seen, and positioning very, very light in equities, the bit of good news was all Wall Street needed to stage a 3% rally, pushing up to resistance at the 20- and 50-DMA's. If markets go there, that's the...

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The Fed’s Silver Lining

2022-05-05

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(5/5/22) The Fed is raising rates by 50-basis-points, but tapering its balance sheet at a slower pace than expected, causing great jubilation on Wall Street, and a 3% rally after the announcement. The narrative the Fed feeds does not always comport with reality; how Jerome Powell "walks the line." Is the Fed looking at the economy in the right way? Economic data are telling a different story; is the market actually bottoming--or could it...

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How Will Today’s Fed Meeting Impact Your Money? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-04

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(5/4/22) Market futures are elevated following two days of volatility and a slow grinding higher; lots of trepidation on Wall St. as the Fed's FOMC meeting convenes today. What the Fed says--or does not say--will affect markets, and in turn, your money. Will the Fed announce a 50-basis-point hike in rates, and a tapering of its balance sheet starting in June--or--will they be more aggressive, hiking rates 75-basis-points, with more, similar rate...

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What Will Today’s FOMC Meeting Reveal?

2022-05-04

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(5/4/22) Today's FOMC meeting will reveal what Jerome Powell & Co really think about the economy, and how the Federal Reserve intends to address inflation: Corporate earnings are decent, but forward guidance is sucky. What we mean when we say we're "taking profits;" how to adjust your portfolio strategy for risk, and why cash is king. Don't confuse narratives for returns: Indexes paint a different view than what's really happening in...

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What Will the Fed Say Tomorrow? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-03

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(5/3/22) The next Fed meeting is tomorrow, at which the FOMC is expected to hike rates 50-basis points, and reduce its balance sheet by $90-Billion starting in June. But what if they don't? What if the Fed says it's raising rates by 75-basis points, and issues a much more hawkish view on inflation? That's the risk markets are facing as they try to position ahead of the meeting. With markets so negatively biased, any news that matches expectations...

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Will Markets Rally Following the Fed Meeting?

2022-05-03

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(5/3/22) The FOMC meets tomorrow, and while many are anxiously awaiting the Fed's pronouncements on Thursday; in reality, markets may have already "baked-in" an expected 50-basis point rate hike and $90-B balance sheet taper to begin in June. Dragons are real; How Investors are positioning for the rest of the summer; YouTube influencers and the end of bad advice; S&P earnings estimates continue to climb, even as corporate forecasts...

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Why Now Would Be a Really Good Time to Rally | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-05-02

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(5/2/22) Markets are set to prove the April-to-May adage: Thunderstorms on Wall Street in April resulted in extremely negative investor sentiment. Markets are very over-sold, and positioning is very light--not surprising given market performance last month. Can markets go lower? Certainly. And we could see a bit of a short-term rally at this point, too, albeit with a lower high as the market continues to establish a down trend. We could also see a...

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