Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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What CEO Confidence is Saying

2022-08-31

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(8/31/22) Considering the Fed's Quantitative Tightening and what CEOs' confidence is saying about the economy; confidence on the wane as the economy weakens (which is the intent of the Fed); dire predictions of a "whopper" recession in 2023; why isn't the Fed looking at M-2?

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Will a Hold at the 50-DMA Level Continue? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-30

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(8/30/22) With markets in an over-sold on multiple levels, a rally was due, and markets did on Monday test the 50-DMA and bounced, almost rallying to break-even, before slipping back to the close. Markets actually posted a "green candle" for the day. Tuesday morning futures are pointing higher, as a prelude to an attempt at a bounce, with the potential to get back up to the 20-DMA. We will likely see a rally that is sold-into. A rally to...

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Why Bitcoin & NFT Trading Has Crashed

2022-08-30

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(8/30/22) Markets are on sell-signals, so use any rally to sell-into and raise cash, rebalance portfolio risk; the impact on credit spreads by rising interest rates will reverberate through the economy. We are likely not through the corrective period. 60% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck--down from 61%! Is the pain worth the fight on inflation? why investing doesn't work as advertised. America exports inflation and imports deflation; what...

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Dow Dumps in Response to Powell | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-29

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Markets sold off on Friday as the Fed withheld an expected pivot in policy, and actually suggested remaining more aggressive in addressing inflation. Jerome Powell also specifically stated such action would lead to slower economic growth and job losses--a necessary evil in the fight to curb the rate of inflation.

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Jackson Hole Failure (8/29/22): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Investment S…

2022-08-29

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#Markets #Money #Investment_Advice

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Will Jerome Powell Disappoint Today?

2022-08-27

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(8/26/22) Does everything hinge around Jackson Hole? Will Jerome Powell disappoint the hawks? the impact of energy prices on inflation; California's EV gambit; how the drought will impact food prices & inflation. How the Inflation Reduction Act will cap prescription drug prices--eliminating the Medicare donut hole; Drug Holidays, the Anxiety in Retirement Planning; Medicare Confusion; A Dr Pepper a Day, and putting coke back into Coke; How to...

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All Eyes on Jackson Hole | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-25

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All eyes are on Jackson Hole, WY, as global leaders converge on the financial symposium to plot the future of the world (!) Market pundits have been talking about a Fed "pivot" in policy since July, as reports emerged indicating inflation might have peaked; but Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic this morning commented that inflation may remain more persistent than expected, which could induce the Fed to continue hiking rates for longer than...

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The Price-Wage Spiral

2022-08-25

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The Jackson Hole Symposium launches today; Is the Fed going to pivot? NVIDIA forecasting lower earnings; the good news/bad news about student loan forgiveness and the problem with "free" money; Cracker Barrel's veggie sausage; challenges for the Jackson Hole in the wall gang: Transitioning to a new, lasting reality w Inflation and the price-wage spiral;

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Jackson Hole Preview Episode (8/25/22): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Inve…

2022-08-25

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#Markets #Money #Investment_Advice

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Targeting 4,000 to 4,160 as We Head Into Jackson Hole | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-24

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As predicted, markets finished lower on Tuesday, violating the 20-DMA and setting up markets for a moderate rebound today. 4,160 will be the new resistance level. If sell-signals remain in place through the end of the week, that will suggest more weakness in markets, and more downward pressure on prices.

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Scary Consequences of Student Loan Forgiveness

2022-08-24

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Markets have a laser-focus on upcoming Jackson Hole conference; is the Fed going to get more aggressive in dealing with inflation? Expectations for a more persistent level of inflation The Housing market is in the early stages of recession.

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Markets Slicing Through Support Levels | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-23

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(8/23/22) Friday's market sell-off is followed by mayhem on Monday, with the worst day of performance since the market found its bottom back in July. Markets sliced clean through levels of support yesterday and this morning are poised for a mild opening; we don't think it will be able to stick, however, as the 20-DMA is retested. Will Markets follow the trendline established for the past 20-weeks? The 100-DMA of 4080 is likely a more logical level...

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How to Navigate Through Stagflation

2022-08-23

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(8/23/22) Markets slice through the 100-DMA; potential impact of the coming Jackson Hole extravaganza; We export inflation and import cheap stuff; how to navigate through stagflation; back to college, self-checking at Walmart, Full-service filling stations; the saga of Meme Stocks; don't try to always make money in the market; outperforming a down market is key to success. Watch for slower economic growth as Fed continues to tighten; how Zoome...

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Has the 9-week Rally Ended? | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-22

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(8/22/22) Over-extended markets sold off on Friday after breaching the 50-DMA, and ran into resistance at the 200-DMA. This 9-week rally aligns with similar bear market rallies historically; one thing we're looking for is a sell-signal in the MACD indicator. The money flow indicator is also showing a sell-signal, suggesting some downward pressure follow-through this morning (futures are pointing lower.) The first support test will be at the 20-DMA....

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The Reddit Run-up on AMC Stock

2022-08-22

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(8/22/22) The Roberts' House Squirrel Infestation; Historic stats on Bear Market Rallies: 30% of the 17% market gain is on the backs of four stocks: Apple, Meta, Microsoft, & Tesla; Why 40% of executives are rescinding job offers; why we'll be lucky to hit 1% GDP in 2023; check out our "Five for Friday" report; comparing stock fundamentals to ETF performance; what's going to happen when ETF's sell-off? How Reddit ran up the price of...

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Six Guidelines for the Bank of Mom & Dad

2022-08-20

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Why the markets are feeling very "beary;" Fed pivot talk is ridiculous; future Jobs cuts are going to be more white-collar; spending habits are shifting; The cost of raising children should be birth control enough; What happens when the Bank of Mom & Dad helps kids with mortgages;

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The False Paradigm of the Minimum Wage | Lance’s Rants 8-18-22

2022-08-18

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(8/18/22) Apple is considering "Friend-shoring" production of its iPods and other devices to Vietnam because the labor is cheaper and the political risks are lower. It's no longer PC to describe the movement of production to foreign countries as "off-shoring." The "re-shoring" of production to the US is economically un-feasible because of the high cost of labor. It is a false-paradigm that everyone deserves a living...

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FOMC Meeting Minutes: Fed Speak Translation | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-18

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(8/18/22) If the Fed's most recent FOMC Meeting Minutes were a fairytale, it might be an adaptation of The Three Bears--something for Goldilocks and everyone else. Markets rallied right into the 200-dma, selling off in the morning, as the Fed fed both hawks and doves in its FOMC Meeting minutes release: "Moving to a restrictive policy stance is required" inspired the hawks, but does not suggest a Fed picot anytime soon. But, "the...

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“Moderation” is a Polite Term for “Recession”

2022-08-18

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(8/18/22) It's College Move-in Week; parsing the latest meeting minutes of the FOMC: Markets rally despite economic backdrop; why retail sales numbers aren't what they seem: We're spending more, getting less; the lag-effect of Fed policy; How FOMC Meeting minutes are "crafted" for release; Hawks and Doves: There's something for everyone. Code words the Fed uses. Ice cream vs Bagels; Cheeseburgers vs salads; health in retirement; Gravity...

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Will the FOMC Meeting Minutes Reveal a Dovish Stance?| 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-08-17

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(8/17/22) Markets are already up 17% from the last lows, making for an incredible run-up and an about-face from mid-July's pessimism to the current state of euphoria. Two things to keep in mind today: The most recent FOMC Meeting minutes will be revealed, with many looking for a more dovish slant from the Fed, anticipating a stall in rate hikes sooner than later. Markets are now two standard deviations above the 50-DMA, and markets will have...

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