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Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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12-1-25 Bear Markets Are a Good Thing

2025-12-01

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Bear markets aren’t the enemy—they’re the reset that creates future returns. Lance Roberts breaks down why market downturns are a normal, necessary, and even healthy part of a full market cycle. We explore how bear markets cleanse excess speculation, reset valuations, restore forward returns, and give disciplined investors long-term opportunities to improve financial outcomes. We’ll discuss why drawdowns feel worse than they are, why expectations...

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A Bear Market Is A Good Thing.

2025-12-01

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2025-12-01

One of my favorite writers for the WSJ is Spencer Jakab, who recently penned an article explaining why a bear market is not necessarily a bad thing. He starts with a quote from "The Godfather." "“These things gotta happen every five years or so, ten years. Helps to get rid of the bad blood…been ten … Continue reading »

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HSBC Casts Doubt On OpenAI’s Future

2025-12-01

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2025-12-01

Per the Financial Times (LINK), HSBC has serious doubts about OpenAI's financial wherewithal. The following bullet points outline HSBC's assumptions, which highlight the challenging financial path OpenAI faces. The graphic below from the article shows that HSBC expects OpenAI to run a massive operating loss in the year 2030. Accordingly, they have serious concerns about …

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Year-End Rally Begins

2025-11-29

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2025-11-29

🔎 At a Glance 💬 Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you'd like us to cover in a future newsletter? 📩 Email: [email protected]🐦 Follow & DM on X: @LanceRoberts📰 Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next week’s issue! 🏛️ … Continue reading...

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From Secular Bull To Secular Flat: The Next Likely Market Regime

2025-11-29

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We’re nearing the end of a remarkably long secular bull market. In this short video, I explain why the next phase is usually a long period of sideways, volatile returns as valuations reset and the market shifts into a secular flat regime. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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The K Shaped Economy In One Graph

2025-11-28

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2025-11-28

Tuesday's weak Consumer Confidence report was a good reminder of why some economists are calling our economy the K shaped economy. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.8 points to 88.7 in November, below expectations of 93. Moreover, it sits at levels similar to those of early 2020, when the pandemic shuttered the economy. …

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Why Peak Confidence Is At Market Peaks

2025-11-28

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When investors feel certain and in control, risk is actually at its peak. In this short video, @Peter_Atwater and I discuss how this “comfort zone” blinds investors to uncertainty and inflates market optimism. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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TPUs Or GPUs: Is Nvidia’s Moat Eroding?

2025-11-26

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2025-11-26

Markets have priced Nvidia as the clear winner in AI chip production. To some, its moat appears impenetrable. Google's developments suggest there may be some competition. Google has been training and serving its AI platform with in-house tensor processing units (TPUs). These chips are more cost-effective and power-efficient than Nvidia’s GPUs. By using TPUs in …

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The Biggest Myth About “Money Printing” Explained

2025-11-25

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The Fed doesn’t print money. In this short video, Garrett Baldwin and I discuss how real money is created through government debt issuance and bank lending, why Fed actions are just asset swaps, and why modern money is always lent into existence rather than printed. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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Ray Dalio Says Sell: But Not Yet

2025-11-25

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2025-11-25

Ray Dalio is considered by many investment professionals to be a market maven. This is because of the wild success of his hedge fund, Bridgewater, with assets under management of $136 billion, as well as several best-selling economics/finance books he has written. In recent times, Ray Dalio has repeatedly emphasized that markets are in a … Continue...

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Bitcoin Isn’t as Scarce as You’ve Been Told

2025-11-24

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In this short video, Parker White, CFA from @defidevcorp and I discuss how #Bitcoin infinite fractionalization mirrors monetary expansion and why the real advantage comes from who gets new money first, not just how much money exists. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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Permanent Job Losers: A Worrying Facet Of Today’s Economy

2025-11-24

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2025-11-24

Given the two-month delay, Thursday's BLS employment report on September labor market conditions was not nearly as pertinent as the BLS data typically is. Despite it being old news, it is worth sharing that the number of jobs increased by 119k, but the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% to 4.4%. The markets didn’t seem …

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Market Bubbles: A Rational Guide To An Irrational Market

2025-11-24

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2025-11-24

We’re hearing it everywhere: AI is in a bubble. The surge in capital, the parabolic stock charts, and the bold claims from CEOs all have a familiar rhythm. Nvidia’s valuation has soared, along with AI-related startups raising billions with little to no revenue. Investment in data centers, chips, and infrastructure is happening at a scale …

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11-22-25 How the Fed Controls Every Asset You Trade

2025-11-22

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The Fed is now the single most important source of liquidity in every major market. In this short video, Michael Lebowitz and I break down the key signals that reveal when liquidity stress is building and why they matter for every asset you trade. 📺Full episode: _r_I Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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The AI Trade: Opportunity Or Warning?

2025-11-22

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2025-11-22

🔎 At a Glance 💬 Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you'd like us to cover in a future newsletter? 📩 Email: [email protected]🐦 Follow & DM on X: @LanceRoberts📰 Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next week’s issue! 🏛️ …

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11-21-25 Why Narratives Break & Markets Correct

2025-11-21

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$SPY / $QQQ correct even in strong uptrends, but it feels worse because media panic amplifies every dip. In this short video, I explain why big narratives like rate cuts, AI or #Bitcoin liquidity always break and why this pullback is still normal for a bull market. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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11-28-25 Black Friday Special Edition

2025-11-21

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It's a cornucopia of content for this Friday following Thanksgiving, and Richard Rosso and Jonathan McCarty bemoan the demise of the U.S. Penny, the fallacy of risk tolerance questionnaires, Rich's Financial Fitness Garage and creating Retirement income; plus Rich's salutation for Thanksgiving. 0:00 - INTRO 0:44 - The Demise of the U.S. Penny 4:54 - Financial Risk Surveys - Rich & Jonathan's Scores 11:05 - Rich's Fitness Garage - Creating...

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11-21-25 Roth Conversion Strategy: What Actually Works

2025-11-21

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Not all Roth conversions are created equal — and new research shows a clear winner. Richard Rosso breaks down a study that modeled hundreds of thousands of retirement scenarios to determine which Roth conversion strategy performs best over a 10-year period: • Staying in a traditional IRA/401(k) and taking RMDs • A one-time Roth conversion • A gradual, multi-year conversion strategy We examine how taxes, RMDs, longevity, and investment returns...

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Capex Spending On AI Is Masking Economic Weakness

2025-11-21

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2025-11-21

The U.S. economy’s recent growth has a distinctive engine: large‑scale capital expenditures (capex) tied to artificial intelligence (AI). Firms such as Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Meta Platforms, and Amazon have announced massive investments in data centers, servers, networking equipment, and AI infrastructure. As noted by Investing.com: "Artificial intelligence is consuming capital faster than investors can recalibrate. …

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Rate Cut Odds Slip Due To Lack Of Data

2025-11-21

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2025-11-21

As we share below, the odds of a Fed Funds rate cut at the December FOMC meeting are down to 33%. On Wednesday, there was an abrupt repricing of rate cut odds after the BLS cancelled the October employment report and delayed the November data until December 19th. Furthermore, the BLS JOLTS report for September … Continue reading »

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