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Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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3-26-25 Is the Risk of Recession Rising?

2025-03-26

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Is the risk of recession rising? Consumer sentiment is flagging following last week's market correction. Investors cannot dismiss sentiment and money flows. Everything that drives the market gets down to earnings. The next round of earnings reports will commence in a couple of weeks. It appears the Dollar has bottomed, and markets are setting up for a rally short term. Lance and Danny address misinformation about recession vs stagflation; there...

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3-24-25 Is The Correction Over?

2025-03-24

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Markets are wrapping up the final week of March, dealing with the uncertainty of the on-again, off-again tariffs. Manager are prepping for the end of the quarter, and will be rebalancing portfolios that are under-weight in stocks; the corporate buy back window is closed, removing a source of buyers. The markets' sharp 10% decline over three weeks appears to have abated, momentum is about to trigger a MACD buy signal; money flows are turning...

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The Key to Lower Inflation May Start with Stock Prices

2025-03-24

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2025-03-24

The key to lower inflation may start with the stock market and feed into the economy rather than vice versa. The wealth effect describes the behavioral phenomenon where individuals' perceived wealth changes impact their spending decisions.

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A Comprehensive Guide to Retirement Income Strategies for a Secure Future

2025-03-24

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2025-03-24

Planning for retirement is about more than just saving—it’s about ensuring a steady income stream that lasts throughout your retirement years. Without a well-structured plan, you could risk outliving your savings or facing financial hardship due to inflation, taxes, or unexpected expenses. This guide will walk you through retirement income strategies to help you achieve sustainable retirement income while balancing withdrawals, taxes, and long-term...

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Is The Correction Over?

2025-03-22

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2025-03-22

Inside This Week's Bull Bear Report Is A Bottom Beginning To Form? Last week, we noted that the market performance, while distressing as of late, has been well within regular correctionary market cycles from a historical perspective.

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Retail Sales Are Better Than Advertised

2025-03-21

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2025-03-21

Within the headline retail sales figure is a lesser-followed data point called the retail sales control group. Following the trend of both figures is important because although the headline figure receives more attention, the control group is the measure that feeds into the GDP calculation.

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U.S. Recession Risks Not As High As The Media Suggests

2025-03-21

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2025-03-21

U.S. recession risks have been a headline over the last few weeks as the markets sold off. "Goldman Sachs and Moody’s Analytics in recent days joined forecasters raising alarm about the increased likelihood of an economic downturn.

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The Role of Dividend Investing in Generating Passive Income for Retirement

2025-03-20

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2025-03-20

Building a secure retirement requires a reliable stream of income that can support your lifestyle without depleting your savings too quickly. A dividend investing strategy offers a way to generate passive income in retirement, providing consistent cash flow while preserving capital. In this article, we’ll explore how dividend-paying stocks can help retirees create sustainable income, …

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The FOMC Shifts To A Dovish Tone

2025-03-20

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2025-03-20

As the market widely expected, the FOMC left the Fed Funds rate unchanged. However, the statement summarizing the meeting now includes an economic growth warning- "uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased." Moreover, they are reducing the amount of monthly QT. The roll-off of Treasury securities will fall to only $5 billion monthly, down from …

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3-19-25 Recession or Slowdown?

2025-03-19

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UCLA issues its first "Recession Watch" since the 1950's as the media hype ramps up ("If it bleeds, it leads.") Fed meeting preview: No rate cut expectations, but comments regarding Quantitative Tightening will be key for markets. Tuesday's sell off part of the process of markets' finding a bottom. Bonds continue to provide a hedge against stocks. Lance and Danny discuss Lance's demise and how to provide important instructions...

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Growth To Value: Which Rotation Is Next?

2025-03-19

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2025-03-19

The Magnificent Seven and many other large-cap growth stocks were among the winners in 2024. However, in 2025, investors are shunning the largest market cap growth and highest-beta stocks and moving into value, particularly large-cap value. Shifting investor preferences to large-cap value from large-cap growth and high beta provides an excellent example of sector and …

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The Sentiment Bark Is Worse Than The Market’s Bite

2025-03-19

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2025-03-19

The old saying that the bark is worse than the bite is a good description of the current state of the stock market and investors' sentiment. The following quote from a recent Commentary and our most recent article (summarized and linked below) point to the unusually poor sentiment. The AAII retail investor survey is now …

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Managing Risk in Volatile Investments with a 5 Percent Portfolio Strategy

2025-03-18

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📈 Understanding recoverable losses and position sizing based on volatility! 💡 #StockMarket #InvestingTips #Finance101 📊 Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/954f75 YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

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Transportation Stocks Continue To Lead Markets Lower

2025-03-18

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2025-03-18

In our Commentary last week, we noted that Delta shares were down over ten percent due to their weak economic outlook. Per our Commentary- "Delta’s CEO offered similar caution: The outlook has been impacted by the recent reduction in consumer and corporate confidence caused by increased macro uncertainty, driving softness in Domestic demand. He also …

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Retail Investor Buys The Dip Despite Bearish Sentiment

2025-03-18

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2025-03-18

It has been an interesting correction. The average retail investor was "buying the dip" despite having an extremely bearish outlook. This is an interesting point because, as shown, the retail investor used to be considered a "contrarian indicator" as they were prone to be driven by emotional behaviors that led them to "buy high and sell low." …

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3-17-25 Recession Fears Emerge

2025-03-17

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Markets last week ripped through one of the fastest 10% corrections ever; that's what happens when markets are over bought. Media headlines whip investors into a frenzy with Recession talk, ignoring the fact that in order for a moving average to remain the average, markets must ebb and flow, above and below, in order to provide the average. The Government is shedding non-essential employees (which begs the question of why they were hired in the...

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Investors Dismiss Fundamentals: Valuations Hold Little Weight in Modern Markets

2025-03-17

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Valuations haven't mattered. Fundamentals don't matter much due to the Momo chase. A whole generation of investors haven't seen this before. ? #Investing Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/054b76 YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

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How to Avoid Common Retirement Planning Mistakes That Could Cost You Thousands

2025-03-17

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2025-03-17

Planning for retirement requires careful preparation and smart financial decisions. However, many retirees make critical errors that can drain their savings, reduce their income, and leave them financially vulnerable. Avoiding financial pitfalls is essential to ensuring a comfortable and stress-free retirement. Here’s a look at some of the most common retirement planning mistakes and how …

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Orange Juice And Egg Prices Provide Welcome Relief

2025-03-17

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2025-03-17

As we have mentioned numerous times, consumer sentiment greatly impacts economic activity. Accordingly, the price activity of particular goods can have an outsized influence on consumer inflation views. For example, orange juice and egg prices have been leading some consumers to have flashbacks of the recent high inflation. Based on the recent price trends of …

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Understanding How Valuations Impact Future Returns in Investments

2025-03-16

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Unpredictable market returns explained! ?? It's a rollercoaster - 10% up, 20% down, then back up! Who knows what the future holds? ? #investing101 Watch the entire show here: https://cstu.io/d25fe1 YouTube channel = @ TheRealInvestmentShow

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