Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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The Death Cross And Market Bottoms

2025-04-21

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2025-04-21

In financial markets, few technical patterns generate as much attention and anxiety as the death cross. This ominous-sounding term refers to a crossover on a price chart when a short-term moving average, most commonly the 50-day moving average (50-DMA), drops below a long-term moving average, usually the 200-day moving average (200-DMA). The "death cross" is a fantastic …

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Is Risk Off Positioning Signaling A Market Low?

2025-04-19

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2025-04-19

Inside This Week's Bull Bear Report Trump Reignites Fed Feud Last week, we discussed the "tariff reprieve" that sent stocks ripping higher in the 3rd largest one-day advance on record. "As we said last week, any good news would cause the market to rally sharply. On Wednesday, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on the …

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Inflation Risk Is Subsiding Rapidly

2025-04-18

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2025-04-18

Inflation risk has been a significant topic of discussion in the mainstream media for the last few years. Such is unsurprising given that inflation spiked following the pandemic in 2020 as consumer spending (demand) was shot into overdrive from stimulus payments and production (supply) was shuttered. To understand why that occurred, we need to revisit …

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4-17-25 Challenges of Managing a Portfolio

2025-04-17

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What makes portfolio management so hard? It’s not what you think. Managing a portfolio isn’t just about picking winners — it’s about managing risk, emotions, and market timing. We've written about these things before...and now, here we are. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel:...

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4-17-25 Powell Rekindles Trump Feud

2025-04-17

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Markets could experience volatility today as options expire; healthcare stocks are also being sympathetic to UnitedHealthCare's unhealthy quarterly report and performance of weight loss drug makers' stocks. Markets are recovering from recent lows: Did the "Death Cross" mark the bottom? Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent remarks criticizing President Trump's tariff policies, highlighting their potential to exacerbate inflation...

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Frontrunning Tariffs Boosts Economic Activity

2025-04-17

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2025-04-17

Recent consumer sentiment readings have been horrendous. For instance, the University of Michigan's latest consumer expectations and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index are at or near their lowest levels in ten years. However, despite poor sentiment and concerning outlooks, recent consumer spending reports show increased spending. We, and many economists, believe this is a …

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The Ultimate Guide to Social Security: When and How to Claim for Maximum Benefits

2025-04-17

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2025-04-17

Social Security plays a crucial role in retirement income planning. Making informed decisions about when and how to claim benefits can maximize your Social Security benefits and significantly impact your long-term financial security. Claiming Social Security wisely requires a deep understanding of how benefits are calculated, the impact of different claiming ages, and the strategies …

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4-16-25 Percentages Are Really Bad to Use for Anything

2025-04-16

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People love throwing around percentages—“down 50%,” “up 200%”—but I’ve learned the hard way they can seriously mislead you. In this short, I break down why percentages often hide the full picture and how I look at real numbers instead when making smart financial decisions. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube...

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4-16-25 A Dozen Ways to Prepare for Recession

2025-04-16

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Lance Roberts' opening monologue covers Easter prep, DMA Death Corsses, and rising recession risk; an earnings season up date (so far, okay), the lack of forward guidance, and negative earnings revisions (except in the Russell 2000); the significance of the 50-DMA crossing below the 200-DMA: Know the context. Event-driven vs. Construct-driven corrections; Scott Bessent and tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation; what if the US and China reach an...

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Rare Earth Metals: Does China Have The Trump Card?

2025-04-16

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2025-04-16

The chart below, courtesy of JP Morgan Asset Management, highlights how much the US relies on certain rare earth metal imports from China and other nations. It also lists some of the products the metals are needed for. As the chart shows, imports play a critical role in securing our rare earth metal needs. Furthermore, …

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Swaps And Basis Trades Warn Of Mounting Liquidity Problems

2025-04-16

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2025-04-16

Extreme volatility in a highly leveraged financial system inevitably results in liquidity issues. Hence, recent instability is generating mounting signals that liquidity is becoming scarce. This is most evident in the sharp increase in risk-free Treasury yields over the last week. Before the yield surge, liquidity problem warnings appeared in lesser-followed places like Treasury basis …

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4-15-25 You Don’t Make Money Until You Sell

2025-04-15

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Watching your portfolio grow is great, but remember — those gains aren’t real until you hit that sell button. Markets can turn fast. Profits can vanish even faster. Smart investors know when to take money off the table. Lance Roberts reveals the difference between unrealized vs realized gains, why taking profits matters, and how smart investors lock in returns before the market turns. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance...

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4-15-25 It’s Tax Day!

2025-04-15

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It's Tax Day 2025 — are you ready? Lance Roberts and Jonathan Penn review last-minute tax tips, filing strategies, and how to avoid costly IRS penalties. But frankly, if you haven't gotten it done by today... There are market benefits from Tax Day, as some tax return money finds its way back into play; stock buy back will also supply some support to markets. In an event-driven market (tariffs), have we passed the markets' low? How the US Dollar is...

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Volatility Boosts Bank Bottom Lines

2025-04-15

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2025-04-15

Despite, or actually because of, the recent market turmoil, many large banks and brokers reported better-than-expected earnings. Market volatility provided a nice boost to trading revenue, which helped offset weakness in other business lines. Goldman Sachs, reporting earnings on Monday, said their equity trading revenue rose 27% from the prior quarter. JP Morgan and Morgan …

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How to Protect Your Investment Portfolio from Market Volatility

2025-04-15

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2025-04-15

Market volatility is an inevitable part of investing. While short-term fluctuations can create uncertainty, a well-structured portfolio can help protect investments from volatility and ensure long-term financial stability. Managing market fluctuations requires a disciplined approach that includes diversification, asset allocation, and risk management techniques. In this guide, we’ll explore why markets fluctuate, how investors can …...

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4-14-25 Yield Curve Signals Ongoing Risk

2025-04-14

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Discover why yield spreads and the inverted yield curve may be signaling continued recession risk in 2025. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer Watch the complete show on our YouTube channel here: &list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=6s ➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts:...

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4-14-25 Yield Spreads Suggest The Risk Isn’t Over Yet

2025-04-14

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Are we heading toward a recession in 2025? In this episode, Lance Roberts explores why yield curve inversions and widening credit spreads suggest the risk isn’t over yet, what the bond market is telling investors, and how these indicators have predicted past recessions and what it could mean for your portfolio. Lance covers: * The Tariff impact on Apple * The mistake of confusing trade deficits with tariffs * Markets' relief rally * Tariffs paused...

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Yield Spreads Suggest The Risk Isn’t Over Yet

2025-04-14

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2025-04-14

In November last year, I discussed the importance of yield spreads, historically the market's "early warning system." To wit:" "Yield spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity but different credit quality. This comparison often …

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The Dollar And Inflation: Don’t Believe The Hype

2025-04-14

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2025-04-14

Recently, we have seen claims that the "collapsing" dollar will cause inflation. While a weaker dollar can create inflation, many factors impact prices. Accordingly, we have two issues with such dire statements. First, the dollar is not collapsing. Second, we have experienced much more significant dollar declines without an inflationary impulse. The dollar has fallen …

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Basis Trade Sent Yields Soaring – Is It A Warning?

2025-04-11

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2025-04-11

Inside This Week's Bull Bear Report Tariff Reprieve Sends Stocks Surging Last week, we noted that the market was not expecting retaliation from China. "Rather than coming to the table to negotiate, China responded with a reciprocal 34% tariff on the U.S. plus export controls on rare earth metals needed for technological production. China is …

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