Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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What to Do When Trump Tax Cuts Expire

2023-09-22

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(9/22/23) The Trump tax cuts of 2017 temporarily doubled the base amount individuals could give away without paying estate taxes to $10 million. These cuts are due to expire in 2026, pushing wealthy Americans to move fast. The Oscar Meyer Weinermobile is returning; Jerome Powell & the shrinking market; the resilience of the consumer is weakening, cooling down. Candid Coffee preview of Progression Planning presentation: Having the Conversation;...

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Is the Fed Too Hawkish Now? (9/21/23)

2023-09-21

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(9/21/23) Our FOMC Meeting review & analysis, hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA. Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Are Markets Close to Trigger Point?" is here: -ToNbB-E&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here:...

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The Way You Invest in Bonds is WRONG!

2023-09-20

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(9/20/23) It's FOMC Day: Rate decision and economic forecasts + the Powell presser. Two questions remain: Is the Fed done, and when will the rate cuts begin? Are we doing Bonds wrong? A discussion based upon an article in MarketWatch: Why investors seeking stability always go for US Bonds vs international debt? FedEx reports = barometer on retail sales; General Mills & the Cereal Index: the cost of feeding kids at breakfast; Danny pays his kid...

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Bond Vigilantes & The Waiting for Godot

2023-09-19

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(9/18/23) The term “Bond Vigilantes” is a nostalgic twist on an old-west theme. In the nineteenth century, the American West formed self-appointed groups, or committees, to seize the duties of law enforcement and judicial authority in situations when citizens found law enforcement lacking or inadequate. In the bond market, the term “Bond Vigilante” was first coined by Ed Yardeni in 1980 when bond traders sold Treasurys in response to the growing...

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Will There Be October Weakness Before a Year End Run?

2023-09-19

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(9/19/23) What's wrong with prepping for Halloween...in September? Fed meeting preview; earnings season is all but done, oil prices are creeping up, most over-bought commodity, so look for a pullback; Dovish Fed & Market consolidation continues w suppressed volatility. Will there be weakness in October to set up for run into the end of the year? (Charts & graphs) Why Fed GDP growth projections are too high (and never correct). Lower...

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The Economy Trifecta This Month

2023-09-18

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(9/18/23) Last week's market pressure came from economic numbers; this week, it's the Fed meeting, and the 'will they, won't they' question about raising rates. Most likely, the Fed will hold steady with not rate hike this month. There is an economic trifecta bearing down on markets: The resumption of student loan payments, the UAW strike, and the renewed threat of a government shutdown. September seems to be a month of significance: Historically,...

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When Your 90-year Old Parent Moves-in

2023-09-15

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(9/15/23) Predictions are for no more rate hikes for a while; UAW Strike is on: What do you do if you need a car now? How to plan for taking care of elderly parents. At what age are best financial decisions made? Financial literacy peaks at 54; " eureka moment" at 45. What happens when your 90-year old parent moves-in? How to talk about aging and finances: When it's time to take away the financial keys; planning ahead to avoid animosity....

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What’s Up With Inflation?

2023-09-14

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Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA ➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter:...

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Who Is to Blame for Unaffordable Housing

2023-09-13

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Markets rallied into Apple's iPhone reveal, then sold off yesterday; who can afford an iPhone 15? CPI for August to be released this morning (3.7% vs anticipated 3.6%). Lenders are now rolling out a 1% down payment program in hopes of reviving their business. The thing about home ownership: It's always something. How do mortgage lenders do it? They eat part of the rate up front, but YOU will pay for it on the back end. What does a larger (20%) down...

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The Real Investment Show (9/13/23)

2023-09-12

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Technically Speaking Tuesday (9/12/23)

2023-09-11

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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The Biggest Head-scratchers This Year

2023-09-11

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(9/11/23) Football Season returns (yawn); CPI/PPI Preview, Oracle's earnings; how will uptick in oil prices affect CPI calculations? (not much); Apple takes a 6% hit on China iPhone ban, but no real impact on NASDAQ. Remembering 9/11 22-years later. One of the big head-scratchers this year is why we haven't had a recession. A look at the Citi Surprise Index; when economic data points diverge. How the economy works: What comes first, Production or...

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6 Medicare Landmines to Avoid

2023-09-08

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(9/8/23) Spending Lottery winnings; no more drilling = higher fuel prices; Candid Coffee tease; A flounder markets: Odds of Fed pause increasing; the threat of government shutdown & market ripples? Congress as "Animal House:" Oil Prices & Apple; market dynamics & touch psychology: Managing expectations. Healthcare premium increases for 2024 = 6.5%: Dealing w realities of Inflation. Zip Lock Bags & Canned goods; Medicare...

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The Big Bond Swap (9/7/23): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strat…

2023-09-07

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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7 Investment Types You Should Avoid

2023-09-06

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(9/6/23) All those Jobs numbers deserve a look under the hood: Are we really creating new jobs or just replacing the ones that went away? NOTE: Following each Jobs Report, revisions are made to previous numbers; this year's revisions are the most negative since the financial crisis. Are Jobs numbers a Recession indicator? The Risk remains. Markets in Correctional Period, VIX suppression vs history; investors have no apparent fear of Recession....

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Can Mega-caps Continue to Lead? (9/5/23): Technical Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisor…

2023-09-05

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(9/5/23) Markets are entering the "weak" month of September, the home of when things fall apart; barring any catastrophe, the month should prove to be flat. August Jobs Report shows higher unemployment = slower spending = lower inflation, the Fed's goal. Popcorn shrinkflation at Costco. Why Mega-cap stocks continue to lead the market: Growth of ETF's, and money must be invested for safety & liquidity. Why the Deficit declined: reduced...

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Do We Really Want a “Whatever It Takes” Economy?

2023-09-05

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(9/4/23) Debt service is diverting revenue from economic growth. The Fed is stuck between high rates and high inflation. How home builders are revising house plans to meet buyer realities. As goes China, so goes others' economies. Example of economic failure: China's empty cities & transportation systems = artificial growth. No one is using them. The "beauty" Socialism and Communism is always undone by human nature. Do we really want...

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How We’re Fighting Inflation Now (9/1/23): Market Analysis & Personal Finance commentary from RIA…

2023-09-01

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech in Review (8/31/23): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors …

2023-08-31

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Markets Cleared Resistance

2023-08-30

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(8/30/23) There will be some short-term economic benefit from the landfall of Hurricane Idalia in Florida--a momentary boost from damage repairs spending. Economic data has been coming in better-than-expected (because estimates had been lowered); bad news is good news again, in hopes the Fed will lower rates. Markets on Tuesday cleared resistance at the 20- and 50-DMA's; mid- and small-company bankruptcies are on the rise as lag effect of higher...

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