Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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The Bull Run Continues: S&P 5000? (2/6/24)

2024-02-06

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(2/6/24) Market Behavior in a Presidential Cycle: Markets are positioning for a GOP win in November; Jerome Powell is now more inclined to NOT cut rates any time soon. Markets now need a narrative to support their current thesis, but it's only fundamentals that really matter. The Apple Vision goggle phenom. Markets sell-off, but knocking on the door of 5,000 in the S&P 500: now dealing with gravitational pull. Yields are reversing. NYC giving...

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Why Stocks are a Popular Hedge for Future Retirees

2024-02-05

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(2/5/24) Getting February underway with an "amazing" Employment Report (with seasonal adjustments!) Full Employment is trending downward; where did 4-million people go?? Interest Rate cuts have been pushed farther out in the year. Markets don't care about economic reports' details. Why Markets continue to do better: They're focused only on the headline data. February is typically a weaker month: Will there be negative rates of return? A...

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Having the Money Conversation with Kids

2024-02-02

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(2/2/24) King Cakes, Ground Hog's Day, & Meta results: finally paying a dividend to investors. Fed commentary: will the labor markets crack? Will the Fed continue to move the goal posts? Our next Candid Coffee is February 24 (registration link is below): Couples' money communication; children are Trustees in training. Having the Money Conversation with kids; (The Ground Hog predicts an early Spring). Going back to work after retirement; the...

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How the Fed Broke Doves’ Hearts

2024-02-01

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(2/1/24) Amelia Earhart was lost 83-years ago, and her missing plane may have been located in the Pacific Ocean, solving the mystery of her disappearance. The mystery of how the Fed operates, however, remains an enigma. And in 2024, there political implications the Fed must also consider (could Kennedy "Perot" the election?) Markets sold off after Jerome Powell promised no rate cuts anytime soon, but bonds had a good day as Treasury...

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How Living Longer Will Impact Retirement

2024-01-31

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(1/31/24) Earnings season continues, with AMD, Google, Microsoft, and NVDIA expected to fall after turning in their reports: Earnings have been okay, but not as good as expected. After "good" reports, watch for increased volatility and rotation from the NASDAQ into the Dow. Bond prices are on the rise, yields are dropping, as Treasury announces a smaller than expected debt issuance. There's a Trojan Horse in the proposed Childcare Tax...

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Was George Soros Right About Bubbles?

2024-01-30

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(1/30/24) Mega-cap Earnings reporting continues with Microsoft reporting today; companies are meeting (lowered0 expectations, but not blowing the doors off. Valuations & Reflexivity Theory teaser, FOMC Meeting preview: Will the Fed begin to cut rates sooner? Markets set another all-time high. Housing dynamics: Pricing & Size and living on $30k/year. Why the cost of Housing has risen as a result of Fed policy & mortgage rule changes. Why...

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Money Market Myths that Won’t Die

2024-01-29

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(1/29/24) Markets look to wrap up January on an upward trend, but this week's FOMC meeting could affect that slope. the problem w economic data on the surface: Increasing GDP growth by adding debt. Who will provide the best policy mix to create stronger growth? Markets continue to rally as lowered earnings estimates and bigger beats provide support. Deviations from averages are difficult to maintain; look for market correction in the weaker month...

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Tax Changes for 2024 You Need to Know

2024-01-26

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(1/26/24) Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Register for our 2024 Economic Summit: Navigating Markets in a Presidential Cycle: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687?aff=oddtdtcreator -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Time to...

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Will the Fed Rain on the Stock Markets’ Parade?

2024-01-25

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(1/25/24) The first estimate of Fourth Quarter GDP is released today: It's only a guess, but expected to be slightly above 2%, which would be the slowest rate of growth since 2023, and coming off Q3 growth of 4.9% (NOTE: The actual number, released after this show aired, is 3.3%, still a significant slowdown from the previous quarter). The connection between GDP growth and earnings; valuations matter. The markets' rally continues; is correction...

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Netflix & the Phenomenal NASDAQ Decade

2024-01-24

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(1/24/24) Netflix dominates the streaming space, once again; coming up: more rate increases. At what point do subscribers say, 'enough,' and revert to bundling? For Netflix, what is the customer acquisition cost? The Richmond Fed Index disappoints; Commentary on Bonds' day-to-day moves: It's just noise. Yields are not over bought. Danny Ratliff relates his home rehab hell and dealing with insurance adjusters (it's a racket). The "joys" of...

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Why Majority of Americans Are Bummed-out By the Economy

2024-01-23

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(1/23/24) Expectations for volatility to pick up, as the risk of earnings warnings rise. Leading economic indicators have been negative for 21-months, yet where's the Recession? What is the risk to outlook in earnings? The most stupid chart on the planet: All-time highs come in clusters (y'think?) Yep, and we'll likely get another one today. How can markets be hitting all-time highs, and the majority of the public is quite pessimistic? Axios' poll:...

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Why the Next Election Will Be About Economics

2024-01-22

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(1/22/24) Earnings season continues with the bulk of S&P companies reporting this week: This should provide a clearer picture of how businesses are really doing. Why the Fed did QE according to Ben Bernanke: So Americans would feel better about the economy (never mind the fundamentals). Optimistic consumer confidence is now based on the guess that the Fed will cut rates this year. Markets achieve all-time high on Friday...but are now just .9%...

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Debunking Davos’ Bucketnomics

2024-01-19

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(1/19/24) Richard and Danny debunk the just-concluded Davos World Economic Forum and the foolishness spewed therefrom, including "bucket-nomics." Davos, Schmavos. Markets have been wishy-washy to date. United Van Lines' recent survey of moving to- and from- trends is an interesting trend to note. The benefits of guaranteed income in retirement; Why Ken Fisher hates annuities: "stocks solve every problem?" The right way/wrong way...

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Is the End of Quantitative Easing Near?

2024-01-18

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(1/18/24) Texas Weather's extreme mood-swings are on display; markets are in bore-mode until the stock buy back window opens again in two weeks; a look at Bitcoin, Gold, & Bonds; Is the Fed about to close down its quantitative easing play? The Yield Curve has invert, but is it about to un-invert? The Fed has a liquidity problem that is rising to the top: There's not enough collateral in the market, and the Fed's is about to take away liquidity:...

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The Real Investment Show (1/17/24)

2024-01-17

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(1/17/24) The Big Thaw episode: Back from the deep freeze! Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Register for our 2024 Economic Summit: Navigating Markets in a Presidential Cycle: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687?aff=oddtdtcreator -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets...

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How to Avoid the Retirement Income Death Spiral (1/12/24)

2024-01-12

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(1/12/24) Hosted by RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Register for our 2024 Economic Summit: Navigating Markets in a Presidential Cycle: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687?aff=oddtdtcreator -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets...

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How Government Spending Really Works

2024-01-11

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(1/16/24) [NOTE: If you're watching this video, we are dealing with The Great Ice Storm of 2024., and hope to be back in the studio, live, tomorrow. Or the next day...when ever things thaw.] Congress' is enmeshed with another continuing resolution battle instead of mandated budgeting; that's how D.C. does business now. -------- Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer...

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Wall St. Doubles Down on Bonds

2024-01-11

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(1/15/24) [NOTE: If you're watching this video, we are dealing with The Great Ice Storm of 2024., and hope to be back in the studio, live, tomorrow. Or the next day...when ever things thaw.] Lance reviews the conundrum of capital allocations in 2024: Wall St. doubles-down on bonds; will the Magnificent-7 lead again, or will last year's underperformers? What if interest rates come down but inflation stabilizes at 3%? no push for the Fed to act (not...

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Spot ETF’s for Bitcoin Launch Today

2024-01-11

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(1/11/24) It's Inflation Day (CPI clocked-in at +.03% month-over-month: How will the Fed React, and how might markets respond? Will the Fed end QT in May, and restart QE by Q3? Bond allocations & Media Trust. Q4 earnings season commences with a steep decline in earnings estimates. Spot ETF's for Bitcoin launch today, thanks to SEC clearance. How much Bitcoin will actually be owned by ETF's, and what will this do to the supply-demand dynamic?...

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Lance’s Rant: Don’t Be Phooled by Phishers

2024-01-10

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So someone told you they were "Lance" from RIA Advisors, and asked you to move some money? Don't be fooled... Sage words of advice from RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts. ➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal...

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