Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

2-12-26 The Value Rotation Illusion

“Value is back,” the headlines say—so investors rush from mega-cap growth into “boring” staples, utilities, and healthcare. But here’s the problem: sector labels aren’t valuation metrics. In many cases, the so-called “value rotation” is an illusion—because investors may be rotating into expensive stocks while selling the actual value hiding inside “growth.” Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down why value and growth aren’t mutually...

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BLS Labor Report Defies Consensus

The delayed BLS employment report came in well above expectations, showing the economy added 130k jobs in January. Furthermore, the unemployment rate slipped to 4.3% versus expectations of a 0.1% increase to 4.5%. The more encompassing U6 unemployment rate fell from 8.4% to 8.0%. The BLS labor report contradicts the monthly and weekly ADP reports, …

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2-16-26 Margin Debt & the One-Stock Myth

Happy Presidents Day—today’s show blends portfolio risk management with real-life planning (and a little chili controversy). Lance Roberts breaks down margin debt and how leverage turns routine volatility into forced selling and permanent losses. Then he pivots with Jonathan Penn to weddings, pre-nups, and money conversations—what couples should sort out early to protect goals and reduce future stress. Lance and Danny address the “one stock...

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2-11-26 Q&A Wednesday: You Ask ’em, We’ll Answer

It’s Q&A Wednesday—you bring the questions, we bring the answers. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff tackle what’s on your mind right now: market volatility, Fed policy, inflation and rates, earnings, portfolio risk management, and what to do (and not do) when headlines get loud. Lance & Danny break down the why behind the market’s moves, translate the macro data into what it means for portfolios, and walk through practical, process-driven...

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Bond Yields May Plummet: Five Potential Catalysts

The top graph below, courtesy of Bloomberg, shows that the price of TLT, the 20+ year Treasury bond ETF, has been drifting sideways for the last couple of years. Often, when a security trades in a tight range over an extended period, as we see with bonds currently, a breakout from the range can be … Continue...

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The Value Rotation Illusion

“Value is back in vogue”, the media claim. Investors are rushing out of the high-flying mega-cap tech stocks and into the boring staples, utilities, and healthcare stocks. Given the huge outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks, it appears investors are going all in on the value rotation.  What some of these investors don’t know …

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2-10-26 Opportunities Emerge at Maximum Fear, Not Peak Optimism

Markets swing between hype and panic, and investors often get trapped by both. When prices rise, narratives justify overpaying; when prices collapse, fear convinces people assets are going to zero. In reality, markets rarely move in extremes forever. The best opportunities tend to appear when fear is highest, not when optimism is loudest, which is why disciplined, fundamentals-focused investors look for value during selloffs rather than...

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2-10-26 Duct Tape & WD-40 Your Portfolio Together

Markets rallied back into positive territory today, but the real risk-management lesson isn’t the chart—it’s behavior. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn unpack the “WD-40 & Duct Tape” framework: WD-40 reduces emotional friction when headlines and volatility try to lock up decision-making, and duct tape is the discipline that keeps your portfolio plan intact (allocation, diversification, rebalancing rules, time horizon, liquidity). We also hit...

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Sanae Takaichi And The Yen Carry Trade

In a blog last week titled Japan Is Normalizing: Risks To The Yen Carry Trade, we discussed Japan's path to economic normalization and how it might affect a great source of global liquidity, the yen carry trade. A week after publishing the article, Japan had a stunning election. As a result, its new Prime Minister, … Continue...

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Rallies Can Be Exit Traps After Selloffs

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2-9-26 Technology Stocks: Dead… or the Next Opportunity?

Technology stocks started February on the back foot as volatility spiked and leveraged trades unwound across markets—crypto first, then metals, then equities. The key question: is this a real breakdown in tech leadership, or a mechanical liquidation that’s creating selective opportunity? 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Superbowl Recap & Looking for BLS & CPI 4:41 - More Trapped Longs & Volatility to Come 10:38 - Market Volatility May not Be Over...

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Software Or Staples?

As we wrote in yesterday's Commentary, efficiently rotating between overbought and oversold sectors, factors, or stocks is a well-established method for outperforming markets. Like any strategy, the hard part is timing, or properly estimating when a pair of sectors, factors, or stocks is about to reverse their respective trends. Currently, there is a massive divergence …

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Speculative Narrative Unwinds

For nearly two years, markets were driven by the same speculative narrative that "this time is different.” Bitcoin, precious metals, and AI-linked equities rose not only because of robust fundamentals, but also because investors clung to powerful narratives about inflation, disruption, and monetary collapse. Those speculative narratives are not only seductive but also contribute to …

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2-7-26 The Rise of Passive Flows and What It Means for Returns

For the past 15 years, shallow dips and fast recoveries taught investors that risk management doesn’t really matter. That complacency won’t last forever. Markets may stay supported this decade by liquidity, speculation, and passive flows, but the longer term points to more volatility and lower returns. ETF growth funnels capital into the same stocks, creating a performance-chasing loop. As assets become financialized, arbitrage compresses...

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Technology Stocks: Dead Or An Opportunity?

🔎 At a Glance 🏛️ Market Brief - Market Volatility Returns Markets stumbled into February, a historically weak month. February tends to deliver modest returns, with average performance trailing the stronger gains typically seen in January and March. Seasonal tailwinds, such as earnings season and new-year fund flows, begin to fade, while macro headwinds, such …

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2-6-26 Skate to Where the Money Is Going Next

Most investors lose money by chasing whatever narrative is hot, whether it’s $SLV or $MSTR. Real investing is about anticipating where capital will rotate next and building positions gradually, not trying to time exact bottoms or going all in. Start small, size positions wisely, and let rotations work in your favor. In this short video, Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz discuss why fundamentals matter more than headlines, and being early...

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2-6-26 This Inflation Signal Says “Trouble in Paradise”

Real-time inflation (Truflation) data is signaling sub-1% inflation, and historically CPI and PCE tend to follow it lower with a short lag. That puts pressure on hawkish policy narratives. At the same time, consumer spending is staying elevated while incomes are flat and savings have fallen to stressed levels. In this short video, Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz discuss the risk of a growing disconnect between the reflation narrative and...

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2-6-26 The Wealth-Health Gap

Why do wealthier households tend to live longer and experience fewer chronic diseases? Richard Rosso & Jonathan McCarty break down the Wealth-Health Gap—how income, savings, and environment shape health through housing quality, access to care, and financial resilience. We also flip the lens: poor health can reduce earnings, drain savings, and create a vicious cycle that widens disparities across generations. Finally, we discuss systemic factors...

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Value or Growth Is Not A Debate, Its An Opportunity

At the start of 2026, we introduced our Factor Rotation Model. The model summary below was posted in SimpleVisor: We launched a new model on January 2nd called the Factor Rotation Model. Historically, the performance of value and growth factors relative to the S&P 500 exhibits a strong negative correlation. Michael Lebowitz provided an overview …

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The Reflation Narrative

The market got off to a strong start in 2026, with investors chasing industrials, materials, and commodity-related stocks as the reflation narrative gained traction. The "reflation narrative" is the belief that a range of policies will boost the rate of economic growth in the U.S. without triggering inflation. As I discussed at our recent 2026 …

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