Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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2026 Market Outlook Based On Valuations

2025-12-22

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2025-12-22

It’s that time of year when Wall Street polishes up its crystal balls and begins predicting returns for 2026. Since Wall Street never predicts a down year, which would be unwise for fee-based product revenues, these forecasts are often inaccurate and sometimes significantly wrong. Let's review some previous years. For example, on December 7th, 2021, …

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The Seen And The Unseen Of QE-RMP

2025-12-22

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2025-12-22

In 1850, Economist Frederic Bastiat famously wrote an essay entitled "That which is seen, and that which is not seen.” The first chapter, "The Broken Window," argues that good economics requires considering not just the immediate, visible effects of an action but also the delayed, less obvious (unseen) consequences. Unfortunately, most commentators, when asked about …

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12-21-25 Don’t Fall for the Hype: Safety Isn’t in Bitcoin Or MAG7

2025-12-21

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Bonds are being ditched at the exact moment investors need them most. In this short video, Michael Lebowitz and I discuss why Treasuries $TLT remain the only true safety bucket and why replacing them with #Bitcoin $IBIT $BTCUSD or mega-cap tech $AAPL $AMZN $META $NFLX $NVDA $MSFT $GOOGL leaves portfolios exposed in a downturn. Please ❤️like and 🔁retweet 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show:...

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12-20-25 Why Balanced Portfolios Are Making a Comeback

2025-12-20

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Balanced portfolios were never broken. Investors just got used to an abnormal era when falling rates made bonds $TLT look like stocks. In this short video, @michaellebowitz and I discuss why the 60/40 model is returning to its real purpose of stability and income as stretched valuations and long-term forecasts make a diversified mix more attractive for the decade ahead. Please ❤️like and 🔁retweet 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real...

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Fed’s Soft Landing Narrative Meets Economic Data

2025-12-20

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2025-12-20

🔎 At a Glance 💬 Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you'd like us to cover in a future newsletter? 📩 Email: [email protected]🐦 Follow & DM on X: @LanceRoberts📰 Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next week’s issue! 🏛️ …

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12-19-25 What Great Financial Planning Looks Like

2025-12-20

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What should a great financial planning experience actually look like? For many investors, “financial planning” is reduced to product selection, performance chasing, or a one-time retirement projection that never gets revisited. In reality, a high-quality financial planning experience is far more comprehensive — and far more valuable. Richard Rosso breaks down the essential elements of effective financial planning. True financial planning is not...

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12-29-25 Fed Liquidity, Housing Myths & Market Risk

2025-12-19

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The Federal Reserve’s policy framework is quietly shifting—and investors should be paying close attention. Lance Roberts, Michael Lebowitz, and Danny Ratliff examine why the traditional push toward homeownership may be built on outdated assumptions, and how changing macroeconomic realities could challenge long-held financial narratives. #FederalReserve #MarketLiquidity #HousingMyths #MacroOutlook #InvestorRisk

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12-18-25 The Fed Turned the Liquidity Back On: Watch These Assets

2025-12-19

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The Fed is adding liquidity (QE), whatever label they use. The assets most tied to reserves are the ones that will move first: #Bitcoin, major indexes $SPX / $QQQ, transportation, and materials. In contrast, defensive sectors, $GLD, and $SLV show little to no relationship to changes in reserves. Please ❤️like and 🔁retweet 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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BLue Owl Roils The AI Narrative

2025-12-19

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2025-12-19

Blue Owl Capital spooked AI investors on Wednesday when the Financial Times reported that the firm, one of Oracle's larger financing partners for major U.S. data centers, decided not to provide equity backing for a $10 billion data center Oracle is building in Michigan. This planned facility is part of Oracle's collaboration with OpenAI under …

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What Inflation Alarmists Missed In Their Warnings

2025-12-19

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2025-12-19

Over the last couple of years, inflation alarmists such as Paul Tudor Jones, James Grant, and Jeff Gundlach have all said that inflation is returning with force. In different ways, they each stated that they would not own Treasury bonds due to the expectation that inflation would rise as the dollar declined due to the … Continue...

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12-30-25 Media, Markets & Reality: A Candid Conversation with Tom Zizka

2025-12-18

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In this wide-ranging and candid conversation, Lance Roberts is joined by longtime friend and veteran television reporter Tom Zizka to discuss how media, markets, and economic reality have fundamentally changed over the past two decades. The discussion begins with the evolution of modern media—from the rise of social platforms and the “small screen” revolution to the growing pressures of monetization, speed, and narrative framing. Lance and Tom...

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12-18-25 Is the 60/40 Portfolio Dead? Global Risks & Opportunities

2025-12-18

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For decades, the 60/40 portfolio—stocks and bonds—served as the foundation of balanced investing. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine the growing global forces reshaping markets. While Wall Street has remained fixated on AI hyperscalers, major developments abroad are increasingly driving returns and risk. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Inflation Report Preview - Where's the Fed's Soft Landing? 3:05 - Markets working Through the Chop 9:56 - Top 10...

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Fannie And Freddie Add Billions To The Bond Market

2025-12-18

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2025-12-18

According to Bloomberg, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been increasing the mortgages and mortgage-backed securities they hold on their own balance sheets. At their peak, before the financial crisis, Fannie and Freddie held a combined total of $1.6 trillion in mortgages. As we share below, courtesy of Bloomberg, their portfolio sizes are well below …

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1-1-26 2026 Market Outlook: Bullish Case, Bear Risks & Strategy

2025-12-17

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As we begin the new year, this New Year’s Day market outlook takes a balanced, risk-aware look at what 2026 may hold for investors. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff examine the bullish case for markets, including the macro and technical backdrops supporting higher prices, while also addressing the growing risks beneath the surface—particularly stress in credit markets and the potential for lower long-term returns. The discussion explores how...

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12-17-25 Earnings Revision Risk Explained

2025-12-17

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Markets are priced for perfection heading into next year. Earnings expectations are unusually high. If those forecasts get revised lower, the market will have to reprice quickly. In this short video, Lance Roberts explains why high valuations and aggressive earnings forecasts create real revision risk if results fail to measure up. 📺Full episode: -vnHx4Eg Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow

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12-17-25 Q&A Wednesday: Live Market Questions & Investor Insights

2025-12-17

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Today’s Q&A Wednesday is driven entirely by live YouTube chat questions, covering the market topics investors are most focused on right now. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff address real-time concerns around market volatility, Federal Reserve policy, interest rates, inflation, portfolio risk, asset allocation, and year-end positioning—without hype or speculation. This interactive session is designed to help investors better understand what...

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Kevin Warsh Or Kevin Hassett?

2025-12-17

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2025-12-17

Yesterday's Commentary discussed Trump's inclusion of Kevin Warsh in the race for Federal Reserve chair. Today, we compare some key differences between Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett. Understanding what each contributes to the Fed helps us better assess their effects on capital markets. Kevin Warsh was a Fed Governor from 2006 through 2011. We learned …

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QE Is Back: Which Assets Benefits From The Liquidity Boost

2025-12-17

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2025-12-17

QE is back! On December 10th, the Federal Reserve announced its plan to purchase $40 billion in Treasury securities each month for at least four months. Through these QE purchases, bank reserves will increase, and recent liquidity concerns should lessen. Furthermore, increased liquidity often leads to more speculative market conditions and higher asset prices as …

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12-31-25 Marketing for Financial Advisors in the AI Age

2025-12-16

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Marketing for financial advisors is being reshaped by artificial intelligence, changing search behavior, and tighter compliance constraints. Lance Roberts & Greg Joslyn break down how advisors can adapt their marketing and PR strategies without sacrificing credibility, consistency, or regulatory discipline. We discuss why persistence—not virality—is the true driver of long-term visibility, how AI fits into content creation and search...

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12-16-25 Year-End Checklist for Young Investors

2025-12-16

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As the year comes to a close, young investors have a unique opportunity to make small moves that can compound into meaningful long-term results. In this episode, we walk through a practical, end-of-year checklist designed for early-career investors who want to stay organized, tax-aware, and financially disciplined. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn cover how to confirm you’re capturing all available employer benefits, including 401(k) or 403(b)...

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