Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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How to Invest with a “Sooner, Faster” Fed

2022-01-27

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Did the Fed just create the 472nd sequel to the Fast & Furious franchise with its "Sooner & Faster" pronouncement? Markets will be more volatile this year; the Fed basically told the markets what they already knew; the sincerity of Jerome Powell. 2022 will be The Year of Volatility; how large cap companies will cope. How the YOLO investing mentality turned sour; managing fear and greed in 2022. 1:42 - The Sooner, Faster Fed's...

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Futures Higher Ahead of Today’s Fed Meeting | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-01-26

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(1/26/22) Futures are higher ahead of today's Fed meeting--in markets that have been sharply lower since the beginning of the year. Are markets ready for a bounce? The S&P is oversold, sitting on support from October's lows. A bounce today could rally all the way back up to the 20- and 50-DMA, and hitting 4,600 on the S&P would not be surprising. Similarly, the NASDAQ, down over 13% for the year, a rally back to its 20- and 50-DMA is not...

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Is Deflation the Watch-word?

2022-01-26

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Will the Fed be as aggressive with rate policy in the aftermath of market performance of late? Why MSFT is the best-operating company on the planet; The Fed's challenge: What to do ahead of the next recession? Headwinds for the Fed: No more liquidity; watchword will be deflation. Why do people want free stuff from the Government? How much negativity has entered markets courtesy of ETF's? "Buy Beta" will shift to buying alpha with quality...

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Markets Calling the Fed’s Bluff | 3:00 on Markets & Money

2022-01-25

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(1/25/22) Markets' sold-off sharply through the first half of the day, with downside liquidation pressure. However, at midday, markets rallied to recover all of the morning's losses, with a huge volume surge at the end of the day. All of this activity took place within the context of a pre-Fed meeting environment: That discussion will center on whether to hike rates and/or tighten the Fed's balance sheet, ostensibly to blunt the effects of...

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Employment & Jobs: Is There More to the Story?

2022-01-25

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The Fed's conundrum, and markets call its bluff; Inflationary pressure is coming; inflation now & then (1970's); what happens when the Fed becomes more active; the employment & participation picture; how we count workers counts; the Market as Barometer for the Presidency; the Fed is a political animal. 1:38 - Market Recap: The Fed's Conundrum 13:01 - Inflation Then & Now: What Happens When the Fed is Active 28:45 - Employment &...

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Could We Have Another 35% Sell-off?

2022-01-24

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(1/24/22) Markets' strong sell-off on Friday produced the second-largest Options Expiration Day in market history--$3.3-trillion in options being handled: a lot of pressure on the S&P and NASDAQ, breaking below their 200-DMA. Could we have another 35% sell-off? Not necessarily--for one thing, we're not shutting down the economy again. But with stocks, crypotocurrency, and speculative assets in general under significant pressure, you've gotta...

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The Sell-off Episode (1/24/22): Miss the live-stream? Watch the recording of this show on our You…

2022-01-24

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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757 ➢ Watch Live daily on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events: https://riaadvisors.com/events/ ➢ Sign up for the Newsletter: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ ➢ RIA Pro Free Trial: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More....

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Will 2022 Be the Year of Investor Comeuppance?

2022-01-22

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2022 is not starting out the way a lot of investors expected; will this be the year of Investor Comeuppance? What is true value? Taking profits in Tech, and the Island of Misfits; Why rising interest rates are poison to speculative investors, The myth of living debt-free with a paid-off mortgage; Why Cash Flow is the primary consideration in Retirement; best-selling home sizes. 2:12 - Will 2022 Be the Year of Comeuppance? 13:00 - Taking Profits...

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Is the Fed Too Late to the Game?

2022-01-21

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The impact on markets of dropping mask and vaccine mandates--and is the Fed too late to the game? How we're getting "back to normal--"what ever that is; the Fed is in a no-win position: How will it re-price risk? the difference between inflation and dis-inflation; what's the difference between conservative company and a conservative stock? Is value coming back into style? How to find a "value stock" that's not a value trap? How...

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Is It Time to Short the Vaccine Makers? Three Minutes on Markets & Money

2022-01-20

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(1/20/22) As vax mandates around the world begin to crumble, the shift to "normalcy" should restore economic productivity. Getting people back to work and restoring consumer confidence is what makes an economy grow. So, what about the vax-makers? Johnson & Johnson peaked in December, and has been on a downward trend ever since. Moderna has also been in a big correction since July; Pfizer has also peaked and is beginning to decline....

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Time to Resize Oil Stock Allocations?

2022-01-20

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Despite Tuesday's Market sell-off, and a paucity of good economic news, there's really no need to panic; the potential impact of the Fed's rate-hikes on the Energy Sector: time for rotational work between Value & Growth; The ugly secret behind the Fed's rate hike plans--and why they won't go very far. Why we re-sized out allocations in oil stocks; why rig counts remain low; what kind of oil stocks are best to own now? the Fed's Impact on the...

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Is Oil Going to $105/bbl?

2022-01-19

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(1/19/22) Goldman is looking for oil prices to go to $105/bbl--possible? Supply-demand imbalance dynamics and strong economic recovery forces could impact demand, causing prices to rise....but...would that last later into the year? Energy Stocks are now trading three standard-deviations above their 50-DMA. However, money flow indicators are over-bought, and close to triggering a sell-signal which could precede a pull back. That's why we thought...

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Earnings Season Kicks Off in the Face of Four Major Rate Hikes

2022-01-19

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Earnings Season is off and running in earnest, w companies reporting 4Q results; more interesting will be 2022 Outlook under the specter of up to four interest rate hikes this year. The impact of Vax Mandates in the workplace and on profits; masking and commercial real estate; inflation vs market correction: Which can be more easily tolerated? Looking for a counter-trend rally before rebalancing. 1:30 - Earnings Season Commences Amid...

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Market Selloff Into January

2022-01-19

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2022-01-19

The market selloff into January rattled investors as concerns of “So Goes January, So Goes The Year” began to dampen expectations. Combined with a more aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve, rising inflation, and a reduction in liquidity, investor concerns seem to be well-founded.

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“Smart Money Tips for 2022”

2022-01-18

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Here is an encore presentation of the January 15, 2022 episode of Candid Coffee, "Smart Money Tips for 2022,"direct from the kitchen tables of Richard Rosso, CFP, RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, and Senior Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP. Richard and Danny address the mythology of financial resoluions: * Think small steps, not big leaps * Cut out the latte, and all that jazz * Take a breath before making large purchases * Pay...

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Sell Signals Becoming More Over-sold–Yet Markets Remain Under Pressure

2022-01-18

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(1/18/22) Real Yields are on the Rise. Market's Friday sell-off retested the trend line from October's lows, but bounced back nicely. This morning, we'll re-test lower support trend lines again. Sell signals currently keeping markets under pressure are becoming more over-sold. Markets could have an opportunity to rally, but it is doubtful that we'll re-achieve all-time highs in the market at this time--in fact, we may have already seen the markets'...

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Holding Cash Like an Emotional Snuggie

2022-01-15

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What in the hell does climate change have to do with the Fed's primary mandates? Meanwhile, Americans' financial confidence index continues to slide, and financial wellness surveys dip lower; when you meet with a "financial planner," what is their real role? Holding Cash for double-digit Returns--pipedream or emotional snuggie? 0:00 - Market Commentary, The Fed, & Climate Change 8:21 - American Financial Wellness & Confidence...

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The Fed’s No-win Fight on Inflation

2022-01-14

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Are academian's about to learn the lesson of "no free lunch? What 7% CPI really means in terms of real wages vs inflation; How do you decrease inflation? The political mistake of giving people money instead of supporting the creation of productivity; Jeremy Siegel and The Minksy Moment re-defined; Real assets vs stocks; Bonds vs Stocks--and why we own bonds. 1:13 - SEG-1: What 7% CPI Really Means 12:26 - How Do You Decrease Inflation? 28:13 -...

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Use the Rally to Rebalance–but to where?

2022-01-13

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(1/13/22) What's hot & what's not? Stocks are still on a rally above the 50- and 20-DMA, still on a sell-signal, but money flows are turning positive--suggesting that markets could rally above all new highs. We're using this rally to rebalance portfolio risk--but rebalance to where? Bonds have also gotten extremely oversold, pushing 3-standard deviations below the 50-DMA. Bond prices are starting to recover, with yields coming down, plenty of...

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Does One-Size Really Fit-All? Part-2

2022-01-13

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This is the second portion of today's show, interrupted during Segment-2 for unknown technical reasons! The first portion can be reviewed here: &list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 The remainder of the show is as follows: 0:42 - The Fed is adamant about adhering to plan of multiple rate hikes this year 15:12 - Post-Pandemic Spending & Prudent Asset Allocation 29:55 - Asset Allocation; Vanguard Target Fund; Self Directed...

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