Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Will Oil Roil the Markets?

2023-04-03

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(4/3/23) April marks the launch of another earnings season cycle and the start of Q2 with a decidedly positive market bias. OPEC+ production cuts hikes oil to $80bbl, fueling more inflation = more Fed rate hikes. Analysts are now expecting Q1 to have been the trough, q2 to show economic improvement: Not good for the Fed, creating a battle between what the Fed wants and what the markets are thinking. It's important to note the significance of oil...

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More Than 50% of Americans are Under-prepared for Retirement

2023-03-31

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(3/31/23) April Fools' realities and cartoon disclaimers: the stupidity risk in the banking sector when the government backstops everything: the markets have essentially been socialized. How long before the Fed pivot; inflation is here to stay. There's a difference between retirement care and long term care; retirees are getting younger: 55 is the new 40. American preparedness for retirement is bleak; more than half are under-prepared. How we got...

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Currency Consequences of US Foreign Policy | Lance Roberts #Shorts

2023-03-30

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(3/30/23) "Don't take a headline and that point say, 'Oh, I've gotta get out of the Dollar now because the Dollar is going to Hell in a handbasket because France is doing this deal with China and the Yuan.' Sure, will the Dollar eventually lose its currency reserve status? Possibly, one day, maybe. I'm not saying it can't happen. The question you've gotta ask yourself is, 'Does the world want to trade with China and the Yuan?' You've got to...

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Fed Pivot? (3/30/23): Market Analysis & Commentary from RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist,…

2023-03-30

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Life Wisdom from the Mouths of Babes | Lance Roberts #Shorts

2023-03-29

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(3/29/23) "Kids are awesome between the ages of zero and ten...(yeah)...they are awesome kids; you get to play with them, Legos', I mean, you name it...I love kids zero to ten. Ten, Eleven, somewhere in there, to about Nineteen, they're a pain in the ass. They know everything. Everytime I say something to my daughter, "I know." She knows everything. She is the smartest person...if you want to know anything, ask my daughter, 'cause...

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Did Congress Get Something Right?

2023-03-29

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(3/29/23) Markets are doing just fine, pricing-in current issues; by 2024 earnings estimates are expected to be a same level as 2022 when artificial liquidity was introduced. The triple tax benefits of Health savings Accounts: What congress may actually get right. how to effectively use an HSA; the benefits of high-deductible healthcare plans. The inevitabilities of Social Security: Higher retirement ages, earnings tests; the challenge of taking SS...

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Minimum Wage vs Living Wage & Wants vs Needs | Lance Roberts #Shorts

2023-03-28

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(3/28/23) "We talk about minimum wage..these minimum wages jobs that about 3-million people have in the country, and then need a living wage; a wage that will allow them to maintain a living standard. First problem is, if you're working a minimum wage job your entire life, there's a problem that is not part of the employment situation. Second thing is, though, what is that living standard? Is the living standard now a $2,500-a-month apartment,...

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Who Will Pay for Bank Failures? (3/28/23)

2023-03-28

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(3/28/23) Who is going to really pay for the FDIC coverage of failed banks? You will, through higher bank fees. Regional Bank shares are beaten up: Is there potential upside? Markets tested resistance Monday and failed; there are two zones in which to rally. Banks beginning to tighten lending standards has same result as rate hikes. Elon Musk's Twitter charging for verified accounts: $8/mo. cost in terms of wealth building; how much money is...

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The Debt Trap for Generations | Lance Roberts #Shorts (3/27/23)

2023-03-27

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(3/27/23) "Teaching our kids to have delayed-gratification is what will separate them from everyone else in that Millennial generation. This whole idea of, 'I can buy now and pay later,' it sounds great, right? You can hav it today. But paying for it later is the hard part because of the interest payments. This is the debt trap that we've gotten an entire generation deeply into that is going to plague them for the rest of their lives. And this...

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Will Commercial Real Estate be the Next to Fall?(3/27/23)

2023-03-27

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(3/27/23) In the aftermath of the bank fail and bailout fiasco, the Fed's QT is essentially being negated by bond buys; despite that, markets are setting a rising trend. Gold buyers read real interest rates; stock buyers read earnings estimates. While the Fed continues to focus on inflation, markets are pricing-in a 110-bp rate cut by Summer's end. 15-years after Bear-Stearns, the component missing for full financial crisis is a lack of faith in...

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Make No Mistake: Perspective Matters | Lance Roberts #Shorts (3/24/23)

2023-03-24

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(3/24/23) "It's important to have perspective. It's also important to have good facts and good information. Look, I'm not always right, and I'm not claiming to be; I make mistakes just like everybody else, and when I make a mistake, I'll tell you: 'Hey, I made a mistake.' My wife never makes a mistake...but, I make mistakes, and she's happy to remind me of that for, like, 30-years ago. She reminds me of stuff I did wrong before I even knew...

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Why Credit Suisse Matters | Lance Roberts #Shorts (3/23/23)

2023-03-23

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(3/23/23) "Credit Suisse, by the way, far different than Silicon Valley Bank. Credit Suisse is what they call a "SIFI." S-I-F-I. That's a Systemical Important Financial Institution. It's the Lehman Brothers. And the reason is because, a. Credit Suisse is a very, very large bank, but they have relationships with every other large bank on the planet. All the other major banks: Credit swaps, credit default swaps, currency swaps, you...

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Bonds Price-in Slower Economic Environment to Come | Lance Roberts #Shorts (3/22/23)

2023-03-22

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(3/22/23) "We have one of The Most Inverted Yield Curves on record, and people are going, 'Yeah, I know it's inverted, but we're not going to have a recession this time.' We have never been this inverted without a recession, period, end of story. Now, could this time be different? Possib. But, I think it's interesting, Mike, that despite all these rate hikes, the 10-year Treasury, as an example, because that's all that's on CNBC dai, we look...

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Economics is Like an Auction | Lance Roberts #Shorts (3/21/23)

2023-03-21

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(3/21/23) "So, it's an interesting conundum...flows of money [and] where they're heading to. And, look, there's a simple formula that drives economics, that drives markets, it drives just about everything in life, and that is always supp and demand. Why do we have inflation? Well, too much demand for too little supp: We shut down the economy, we gave people a bunch of money; we said, guess what, you can't work, you gotta stay home; and no one...

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Will Mobile Banking in the Future Limit Access to Your Money? | Lance Roberts #Shorts (3/20/23)

2023-03-20

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HAVE YOU SUBSCRIBED TO "Before the Bell?" https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFmyKJKseEMQp1d14AjvMUw (3/20/23) The SVB failure was an issue of falling collateral value and the velocity of money through mobile banking. Regional banks are also facing aftereffects; what is "too big to fail?" What are the realities of remaining risk in the system? Is a limitation on mobile banking coming? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment...

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Why Bank Math is Like Abbott & Costello

2023-03-17

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HAVE YOU SUBSCRIBED TO "Before the Bell?" https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFmyKJKseEMQp1d14AjvMUw (3/17/23) Bank math is a lot like Abbott & Costello math; the main issue with banks is lack of mark-to-market; SVB problem was it's the tech-darling, whose product was sub-prime business loans based on "social credit." (See "The Panic of 1907"). How diversity and equity nearly crashed the economy (NY Post). Is the...

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Why Banks Are About to Tighten Credit | Lance Roberts #Shorts

2023-03-16

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HAVE YOU SUBSCRIBED TO "Before the Bell?" https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFmyKJKseEMQp1d14AjvMUw (3/16/23) "There is not enough money in FDIC to cover bank bailouts. There's not even enough money to cover all of Silicon Valley Bank. If we go bank to a 2008 situation, where you've got bank after bank after bank failing, there is not enough moeny to cover those. In the Pension Benefit Guanraty Corporation, there is not enough money...

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SVB & ESG: Why ESG Investing is a Scam| Lance Roberts #Shorts

2023-03-16

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HAVE YOU SUBSCRIBED TO "Before the Bell?" https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFmyKJKseEMQp1d14AjvMUw (3/17/23) "There is more than sufficient evidence that the ESG mantra does very little for the environment, and does a lot more for the managers that are chosing these funds, because out of those 915 ESG Funds, a lot of those funds have nothing to do with ESG investing. They were large cap funds that weren't getting any inflows because...

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Why the Credit Suisse Bailout is Significant: SIFI

2023-03-16

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HAVE YOU SUBSCRIBED TO "Before the Bell?" https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCFmyKJKseEMQp1d14AjvMUw (3/16/23) Credit Suisse secures a $50-B loan from the Swiss National Bank: Is this only the first bailout? Why markets have really gone nowhere; this is why context matters. It's important to keep a proper perspective as an investor: Ignore the TikTok experts and look at the data; a longer-term view is best. Why the Fed will not cut rates...

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Will Taxpayers Bear the Brunt of Federal Bank Bailouts?

2023-03-15

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(3/15/23) "There is not enough money in FDIC to cover bank bailouts. There's not even enough money to cover all of Silicon Valley Bank. If we go bank to a 2008 situation, where you've got bank after bank after bank failing, there is not enough moeny to cover those. In the Pension Benefit Guanraty Corporation, there is not enough money in that to cover all the pensions. There's just not enough money. So ultimatey, at the end of the day, this is...

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