Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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An Unstoppable Bull Market?

2025-05-24

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2025-05-24

Inside This Week's Bull Bear Report Even Trump Can't Kill The Rally Last week, we discussed how the rally had repaired much of the previous damage following the correction. As we noted: "This past week, the market continued its advance. There is little reason to be bearish with key overhead resistance levels broken. However, as …

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5-23-25 The CBO is About as Accurate as a Meteorologist

2025-05-23

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Malcolm Gladwell once wrote that weather forecasters are only good for about three days, after which, the accuracy are their predictions are no better than a coin toss. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) track record is no better. So how can the CBO reliably predict what the US economy will be like by 2055? Hosted by Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive...

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5-23-25 Debunking Bad Bond Narratives

2025-05-23

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Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz discuss whether or not bonds are a good buy now, with a composite bond market outlook, and the relationship of interest rates and bond prices. Headlines herald a bond auction that "goes badly." Bond auctions tell you absolutely nothing about what's going on with bonds. Another "scary" headline about the rising gap between USD-JPY and Ten Year yields: The reality is there is a somewhat loose...

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5-23-25 Are There Warts on The One Big Beautiful Bill?

2025-05-23

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Are there hidden flaws in the One Big Beautiful Spending Bill? Danny Ratliff & Jonathan Penn expose what they're not telling you, diving into the fine print of the 2025 federal spending bill. Is it as beautiful as they claim—or are there costly warts hidden beneath the surface? Danny & Jon break down the economic risks inherent in the politics and pork. 0:18 - Will Investors Pause for Memorial Day Weekend? 11:55 - Wart on the One Big...

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Why Are Yields Surging In Japan?

2025-05-23

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2025-05-23

The short answer is that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is letting the market set yields. For years, the BOJ has run an extremely loose monetary policy, including capping yields at extremely low levels and negative interest rates. Limited economic growth and disinflation made such a policy possible. However, inflationary pressures and a weak yen …

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The Anchoring Problem And How To Solve It

2025-05-23

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2025-05-23

Market perspective is essential in avoiding investing mistakes. With the media constantly pushing a “Markets In Turmoil” narrative, it’s no wonder that investor sentiment recently reached some of the lowest levels since the financial crisis. The following chart is the z-score of the retail and professional investor sentiment composite index of bullish sentiment. Notably, we …

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5-22-25 Bonds are Cheap?

2025-05-22

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Are bonds cheap? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz discuss whether or not bonds are a good buy now, with a composite bond market outlook, and the relationship of interest rates and bond prices. 0:22 - Hurricane Season & Market Pullback 11:53 - Bond Auction Reality - What did the dealers do? 27:42 - Debunking the Narratives & Bad, Scary Charts 41:26 - Why Bonds Are a Good Buy Now Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance...

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The Role of Bonds in a Well-Balanced Investment Portfolio

2025-05-22

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2025-05-22

When building a strong and diversified portfolio, most investors focus heavily on stocks. But bonds play an equally important role—especially when it comes to managing risk and providing consistent income. Incorporating bonds into your investment portfolio can lead to more […] The post The Role of Bonds in a Well-Balanced Investment Portfolio appeared first on …

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Bond Yields Are Surging: Narratives Vs. Fundamentals

2025-05-22

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2025-05-22

Fiscal worries, the dollar’s imminent demise, and soaring tariff-related inflation expectations are among the concerns driving bond yields higher. At the same time, inflation, the historical determinant of US Treasury yields, continues normalizing. As a bond investor, it is difficult […] The post Bond Yields Are Surging: Narratives Vs. Fundamentals appeared first on RIA.

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5-21-25 Has the Correction Started?

2025-05-21

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Is this the beginning of a market correction—or just a healthy pullback? Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down recent volatility, key technical signals, and what smart investors should be watching right now; a review of Target & WalMart's earnings reports. Lance rebuts claims by Fisher Investments that stock buy backs do not affect markets. Convincingly. A review of Jamie Dimon's market complacency warnings, and Lance and Danny discuss...

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Retail Is Fearless: Buy The Dip Is On Steroids

2025-05-21

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2025-05-21

Monday was a record-setting day. Stocks opened down 1% on news that Moody's downgraded the US credit rating to AA. While some perceived the downgrade as problematic, retail investors, aka individuals, bought stocks at the highest rate ever. Per JP Morgan, retail investors purchased a net of $4.1 billion of US stocks in the first …

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Death Of The Dollar: An Eternal Tale

2025-05-21

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2025-05-21

The following paragraph, courtesy of Amazon, reviews the book Death of the Dollar by William Rickenbacker. Death of the Dollar by William F. Rickenbacker is a critical examination of the economic policies and monetary mismanagement that the author argues are eroding the value of the U.S. dollar and threatening financial stability. Rickenbacker contends that the …

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5-20-25 Are the Markets Too Complacent?

2025-05-20

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Are investors dangerously ignoring risk? Despite signs of slowing economic growth, elevated valuations, and geopolitical uncertainty, markets continue to trend higher with remarkably low volatility. Lance Roberts & Jonathan Penn address whether or not markets too complacent, remembering wedding anniversaries, and whether the ratings agencies are to be believed: Why even rate Treasuries at all? A look at bad headlines (If it bleeds, it leads),...

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USA Versus JNJ

2025-05-20

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2025-05-20

Over the last fourteen years, as we share below, the US government credit rating has slipped from AAA to AA. Moody's was the first to cut the USA from AAA to AA in 2011. Fitch followed in 2023, and Moody's did the same last weekend. Now that the USA government is fully rated AA by … Continue reading »

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How to Achieve Financial Independence and Retire Early (FIRE)

2025-05-20

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2025-05-20

The FIRE movement—short for Financial Independence, Retire Early—has gained popularity among those who want more control over their time and financial future. Unlike traditional retirement models, FIRE encourages aggressive saving and disciplined financial planning to reach financial independence far earlier than the typical retirement age. Whether you dream of leaving the 9-to-5 grind in your …

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The TLT Short Trade Is Crowded

2025-05-19

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2025-05-19

Short positions in TLT, the popular 20-year US Treasury Bond ETF, have spiked to over 130 million shares, up from 107 million last month. TLT has 541 million shares outstanding. Consequently, the short interest has risen from 20% to 24% of the float. Furthermore, TLT's days to cover ratio (short position/average trading volume) is nearly …

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Moody’s Debt Downgrade – Does It Matter?

2025-05-19

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2025-05-19

This morning, markets are reacting to Moody's rating downgrade of U.S. debt. For those promoting egregious amounts of "bear porn," this is nirvana for fear-mongering headlines that gain clicks and views. However, as investors, we need to step back and examine the history of previous debt downgrades and their outcomes for both the stock and …

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Recession Probabilities Decline

2025-05-17

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2025-05-17

Inside This Week's Bull Bear Report The "Can't Stop, Won't Stop" Rally Last week, we discussed how the rally had repaired much of the previous damage following "Liberation Day." However, we also made competing cases for the bulls and bears on the market's next move. "It is always difficult to say whether this is a 'bear market' rally while you are in the midst of it.

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5-16-25 You Are Much More Economically Sensitive (when you’re an investor)

2025-05-16

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Investors have a "spidey-sense" of what's going on in the world around them, noticing things like restaurant occupancies and the number of freight trucks on the highway. Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- ➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow ➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts:...

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5-16-25 “Tax-Free Social Security: Dream or Deception?”

2025-05-16

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What if your Social Security benefits were no longer taxed? A new bill in Congress could make that happen — but is it real policy or just political posturing? Richard Rosso unpacks the proposal to eliminate federal income tax on Social Security, what it could mean for retirees, and the fiscal reality behind the promise. 🧾 What’s in the proposed legislation 💸 How it could impact retirement income ⚖️ The budget math Congress doesn’t want to talk...

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