Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Accommodative Or Restrictive? Decoding The Fed’s Latest Move

2025-09-24

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2025-09-24

Some Wall Street pundits believe that the recent Fed rate cut makes its policy too accommodative, and they also argue that the Fed is creating a “Goldilocks” scenario for the stock market. To wit, we recently saw the following comment and graph on X, which suggests we are in the “Goldilocks zone.”   “Market is …

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Equity Fund Outflows Soar: Blip or Warning?

2025-09-23

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2025-09-23

Our friend Jim Colquitt, in his Weekly Chart Review, brought to our attention a large and irregular outflow from equity funds last week. He cites a Reuters article stating that investors withdrew $43 billion from US equity funds last week. That was the largest outflow since December 2024. The graph below shows that equity fund …

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9/22/25 Stock Market Outlook: Bullish or Bearish?

2025-09-22

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Are markets set to keep climbing, or are we staring down the next pullback? Lance Roberts breaks down the bullish vs. bearish case for stocks, exploring what could fuel the rally—and what risks could trip it up. From the Federal Reserve’s latest moves, to earnings trends, market breadth, and money flows, we’ll cover the key factors driving sentiment. Whether you lean bullish or bearish, this analysis will help you understand the forces shaping...

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Size Matters: Can The Largest Stocks Continue To Lead?

2025-09-22

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2025-09-22

Does size matter? Since the Pandemic, and judged by the recent performance of the Magnificent Seven and mega-cap indexes, many investors would say it matters, likely claiming that the greater the size, the better the returns. Those with data going back decades, rather than years, would also agree that size matters. However, their conclusion would …

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Markets: Bullish Vs Bearish Case

2025-09-22

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2025-09-22

Just recently, Scott Rubner of Citadel Securities wrote an excellent piece discussing the bull versus the bear case for the markets. You look at the markets today and see a tension between expectation and reality. On one hand, equities—especially tech and growth—are pushing to fresh highs. Optimism about rate cuts, AI and productivity gains, global …

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Overbought Conditions Across Multiple Markets

2025-09-20

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2025-09-20

🔎 At a Glance 💬 Ask a Question Have a question about the markets, your portfolio, or a topic you'd like us to cover in a future newsletter? 📩 Email: [email protected]🐦 Follow & DM on X: @LanceRoberts📰 Subscribe on Substack: @LanceRoberts We read every message and may feature your question in next week’s issue! 🏛️ …

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9/19/25 Why Fighting The Data Is A Losing Trade

2025-09-19

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Regardless of whether you believe CPI or jobs data reflects reality, markets trade on the official numbers. In this short video, @AxelMerk & I discuss that even if employment or inflation numbers are flawed, what matters is how the Fed reacts, since liquidity and rate policy drive asset prices. Watch the full episode here: #CPIInflation #JobsReport #FederalReserve #MarketTrading #AxelMerk

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9-18-25 Savvy Medicare Planning –

2025-09-19

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Planning for Medicare can feel overwhelming, but understanding your options is the key to protecting your health and finances in retirement. In this Savvy Medicare Planning Webinar, Richard Rosso & Danny Ratliff walk you step-by-step through what Medicare covers, who’s eligible, enrollment periods, penalties, premiums, Medigap, Medicare Advantage, and long-term care planning. ✅ What you’ll learn in this Medicare webinar: The basics of...

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9/11/25 There Ain’t No Inflation

2025-09-19

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Markets and the Fed keep talking about inflation, but what’s really happening? Lance Roberts previews the upcoming CPI, PPI reports, and real-world data to explain why the official numbers don’t always match what you're feeling. From wages and rents to energy prices--is inflation is truly under control, or just hiding in plain sight. Discover how “disinflation” differs from “deflation,” why Wall Street’s narrative matters for stocks, and what it...

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Data Centers And The Power Grid: A Path To Debt Relief?

2025-09-19

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2025-09-19

Could data centers and the power grid be America's next "renaissance?" With the U.S. national debt exceeding $37 trillion and interest payments surpassing defense spending, many articles have been written about the "debt doomsday" event coming. Such was a point we made in "The Debt and Deficit Problem." "In recent months, much debate has been …

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Market Mechanics Override Weakening Economic Data

2025-09-19

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2025-09-19

Since the middle of July, UST 10-year yields have fallen from 4.50% to 4.00%. While the yield decline has been profitable for bondholders, it has also aided many other investors. Such a finding may seem counterintuitive, considering that lower yields are the result of a significant weakening in the labor market and a range of …

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9/18/25 The Real Reason The Market Popped After the Fed Cut

2025-09-18

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The Fed cut rates as expected, but Powell admitted uncertainty and insisted policy is still "restrictive." @michaellebowitz and I discuss why markets see it as "accommodative" and are rallying on that perception, with $INTC & $NVDA helping big. #FedRateCut #StockMarketRally #PowellSpeech #NvidiaStocks #InterestRates

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9/18/25 No Risk-free Path for the Fed

2025-09-18

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The Federal Reserve cut rates on Wednesday, September 17, 2025 — but the path forward is anything but risk-free. Markets had already priced in much of the move, leaving investors to wonder if Powell’s guidance will calm volatility or spark fresh uncertainty. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz look at what the Fed’s latest decision means for stocks, bonds, and the economy. Why Powell’s words may matter more than the rate cut itself. The risks of...

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The Fed Cuts Rates: What Comes Next?

2025-09-18

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2025-09-18

Not surprisingly, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points at yesterday's meeting. With the cut, the Fed Funds rate sits at 4.00-4.25%. While the market was nearly certain of a 25bps cut, it is less clear about what the road ahead holds for Fed policy. To help us start thinking about how policy may change at the upcoming meetings, we share a few comments from yesterday's FOMC meeting.

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9/17/25 Big Day: Fed Day

2025-09-17

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It’s Fed Day – the most anticipated event for markets this month. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision and Jerome Powell’s press conference could shape the direction for stocks, bonds, and the economy heading into year-end. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down: • What the Fed is likely to announce today • The impact on interest rates, inflation, and growth • How markets ($SPY, $QQQ, bonds, gold) typically react to Fed decisions • Why...

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Semiannual Reporting Requirements Are Overhyped

2025-09-17

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2025-09-17

President Trump is pushing to reduce the SEC’s financial reporting requirements from quarterly to semiannual reporting. He's framing the idea in a positive light: it would allow managers to focus on the business, lower compliance costs, and fight “short-termism” in markets. In reality, it would weaken one of the hallmarks of U.S. capital markets: timely …

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Trump’s BLS Reform Faces Steep Obstacles

2025-09-16

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2025-09-16

The White House has turned its attention to the Bureau of Labor Statistics after a series of steep payroll revisions rattled confidence in the government’s jobs data. President Trump fired the agency’s commissioner last month and has nominated a longtime critic to take her place, pledging reforms to improve accuracy. But the problems run deeper …

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9/15/25 MONDAY Stream Test

2025-09-15

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Check Czech Chex

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Invest Or Index – Exploring 5-Different Strategies

2025-09-15

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2025-09-15

Investing is about choices. Every investor faces the same challenge: how to grow wealth while controlling risk. Over the years, distinct approaches have proven effective, though none guarantee success. Some strategies require patience. Others demand discipline in timing and execution. A few provide stability and income. There is no right or wrong way to invest, …

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Overnight Funding Costs Signal Liquidity Strain

2025-09-15

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2025-09-15

After years of abundant liquidity, U.S. overnight funding markets are beginning to show signs of strain. Interest rates on overnight repo agreements have climbed steadily this month as the Treasury rebuilds its cash balance and the Fed continues quantitative tightening. Usage of the Fed’s overnight reverse repo (RRP) facility, a key gauge of excess liquidity, …

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