Category Archive: 9a.) Real Investment Advice

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Valuation Metrics And Volatility Suggest Investor Caution

2024-03-05

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2024-03-05

Valuation metrics have little to do with what the market will do over the next few days or months. However, they are essential to future outcomes and shouldn’t be dismissed during the surge in bullish sentiment. Just recently, Bank of America noted that the market is expensive based on 20 of the 25 valuation metrics they track.

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Warren Buffett’s Cash Dilemma

2024-03-04

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Markets are entering the three strgonest months of the year; what if interest arwets aren't cut? February was unusually strong for a "weak" month; what happens during Presidential Election years? Looking at Volatility risk. Markets have been up for 16 of the past 18-weeks; such activity generalluy heralds a correction. Warren Buffett's annual letter: What do to with $160-B in cash? The dilemma of cash and valuations; cash held by...

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How to Plan for Social Security “Viability”

2024-03-01

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Social Security Viability: Let the Propaganda Begin As discussions ensue about the best way to bring the Social Security system into actuarial balance, the raising of the maximum wage base is emerging as a popular solution. Hosted by RIA Advisors Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Apple's...

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Five Money Habits of Unhappy Couples

2024-03-01

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Nothing sinks a marriage quicker than money issues. If the Valentine’s Day glow has faded, promise you’ll respect your lover’s credit, communicate about your money, and share together money tips to help revive your financial harmony. Hosted by RIA Advisors' Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisors, Danny Ratliff, CFP, & Jonathan MCCarty, CFA, CFP, NSSA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer, &...

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Are Buybacks Worth Paying Up For?

2024-02-29

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Stock buyback activity is on pace to reach new, all-time highs (and it's only the end of February!) One reason for the gap between large-cap companies and small- and mid-caps is bigger companies' ability to pour cash into buybacks. Will election season cause Wall St. to reduce risk? GDP and Consumer Sentiment numbers all revised downward, but confidence remains high in markets' ability to perform. Lance & Michael discuss volatility in portfolio...

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11 Pearls of Investing Wisdom from Warren Buffett

2024-02-28

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Markets continue to trade sideways as the latest earnings season draws to a close. Stock buy-backs will continue for the next three weeks, and then halt in preparation for the NEXT round of earnings reporting. Warren Buffett on buy-backs: Need to occur when companies are under-valued relative to markets for optimal effect; companies are now buying back at high prices. Company stocks are still trading despite 40% reporting negative earnings. What...

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This Is Nuts – An Entire Market Chasing One Stock

2024-02-27

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Preparing for this week's economic data releases; what the Fed looks at for Inflation; earnings season concludes with good beat-rate...on lowered expectations. Dow Theory theory and Amazon's joining the S&P 500: When does Nvidia enter the index? Analysts are raising targets for the S&P to 5800 by the end of the year, based on performance of Nvidia and other tech stocks: This is nuts. Markets continue to trade within narrowly-defined trading...

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Small Cap Stocks May Be At Risk

2024-02-26

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Retail investors have started chasing small-cap stocks in hopes of both a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve and avoiding a recession. Such would seem logical given that, historically, small capitalization companies tend to perform best during the early stages of an economic recovery. Since debt-driven government spending programs have a dismal history of providing the promised economic growth, disappointment over the next year is almost...

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What To Do When You Regret Retirement

2024-02-23

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Is Nvidia more than a market darling, and has it entered the "tulip stage?" (We don't know when the tulip will die.) How to invest with the maddening crowd without going mad. Candid Coffee preview (registration link is below!) Couples, Money, & Communication: Make it fun (Amazon shots?) Pensions vs Social Security: the confounding Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and Government Pension Offset (GPO) rules. Why you cannot (fully)...

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Are The Magnificent Seven Stocks In A Bubble?

2024-02-22

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Has Nvidia become the world's most-valuable company? The S&P is aiming at more all-time highs, but can they hold? Fed minutes reveal no rush to cut rates. The disconnect with markets' expecting more cuts. Will the Fed reduce QT as money flows into markets? Meanwhile, markets continue to test rising trendline at 20-DMA, as consolidation continues. No reason to be bearish on markets...yet. What markets missed from Fed Minutes: the quantity of...

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Will Nvidia Break the Market?

2024-02-21

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It's Nvidia earnings reporting day, and as tech companies have driven markets of late, the results, and the company's forward guidance, could have a huge effect. Earnings expectations are extremely high; risk of disappointment is high. The S&P is testing a rising trendline at the 20-DMA, against a negative divergence in relative strength. The dichotomy is unsustainable. The Conference Board releases latest survey of leading economic indicators,...

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Don’t Fear the All-time Highs

2024-02-20

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There are "Dow Days" and "NSDQ Days;" CPI inflation is still transitory; emerging influence of presidential election on Congress' ability to manage debt & spending, M-2 as % of GDP. There is little expectation for earnings growth this year. Markets remain in bullish trend, but a negative day today could trigger MCD Sell-signal. Time to reduce portfolio risk and wait until correction to put capital back to work. Instead of...

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Should I Delay Social Security?

2024-02-16

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The Fed is in no rush to lower rates, based on the latest economic data; we've gone from transitory to permatory inflation; rents are not going to fall, but rates are not going to go up. Fed Gov. Bostick: Rates are not going down until later, based on Labor data. Candid Coffee preview: The problem with Financial Infidelity; does it pay to delay taking Social Security? (It depends...) What's the best claiming strategy? Rich & Danny critique...

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Fed Chair Powell Just Said The Quiet Part Out Loud

2024-02-16

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2024-02-16

Regarding the surprisingly strong employment data, Fed Chair Powell said the quiet part out loud. The media hopes you didn’t hear it as we head into a contentious election in November. Over the last several months, we have seen repeated employment reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that crushed economists’ estimates and seemed to defy logic. Such is particularly the case when you read commentary about the state of the average...

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Is Toyota the Next Tesla?

2024-02-15

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The post-Valentine's Day afterglow; Markets are not behaving like it's February (typically a weaker month), so far. The NFIB Small Business Survey belies weaker conditions and negative sentiment; there is a correlation between the NFIB and Small Cap Index. Markets continue to do well, despite weaker economic activity; bonds showing promise; NVIDIA captures 3rd place in S&P 500, unseating Amazon & Google. Commentary on pending legislation...

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So You Think You’re Ready to Retire… (2/14/24)

2024-02-14

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(2/14/24) Financial advisors have significantly different perceptions of their clients’ retirement readiness than do the clients themselves, according to Allspring Global Investments’ annual retirement survey, released Tuesday. While some two-thirds of retirees and near-retirees considered themselves ready for retirement, only 40% of advisors, who were included in the survey for the first time, said their clients were ready. Hosted by RIA...

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It’s CPI Day! – the Impact Gas prices may Have

2024-02-13

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(2/13/24) It's CPI Day (the Consumer Price Index increased .3% in January; on an annualized basis, CPI dropped from December 3.4% to 3.1% for January.) Actors, do not lie on your application (especially involving roller skates and the Super Bowl Halftime!) Amazon hit with class action lawsuit over upcharge for ad-free viewing. Markets start Monday flat, spike a bit, and end flat. Correction is one day closer today than yesterday; why managing risk...

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Homes Are About to Get Less Affordable (2/12/24)

2024-02-12

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(2/12/24) Markets reached the magical 5,000 mark on Friday, and momentum will continue to carry investors forward, but for only so long; how we're preparing for the eventual pullback. A correction of between 2% and 5%, and up to 10% would not be out of the realm of possibility, and normal in any year. The cost of housing remains a hot-button topic with both Millennials and Gen-Z. Lance runs the charts to demonstrate market dynamics and...

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How Your Social Security is Taxed

2024-02-09

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(2/9/24) Rich & Danny prepare for today's market action & economic releases; the notion that markets believe the Fed should lower rates is un-believable. Labor and unit costs will ultimately be the determining factor. Tesla is dropped from the Magnificent-7, replaced by Eli Lilly; should it be the "Sexy-7?" Mutant wolves roam Chernobyl; Taylor Swift & the Super Bowl: she is the epitome of the American Dream. Why Taylor Swift...

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Why the 2020’s Aren’t the 1970’s

2024-02-08

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(2/8/24) Fair warning, fellas: Valentine's Day is one week away. What do all the numbers and charts really mean about the economy? Financial Obligation Ratio's look great for the upper 10%, but for the rest of the population, they're pretty dire. The markets don't care. Are we over-paying for equities? Market internals are very different from the headline data. The S&P almost hit 5,000, thanks to the EFT draft effect. Will "good"...

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