Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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2019: The Year of Repo

2020-01-04

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2020-01-04

Fed Balance Sheet: Reserve Balances, 2008-2019
The year 2019 should be remembered as the year of repo. In finance, what happened in September was the most memorable occurrence of the last few years. Rate cuts were a strong contender, the first in over a decade, as was overseas turmoil. Both of those, however, stemmed from the same thing behind repo, a reminder that September’s repo rumble simply punctuated.

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The Two Charts You Need to Ignore or Rationalize Away in 2020 (Unless You’re a Bear)

2020-01-03

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2020-01-03

Fed monthly vs US Stock Market
If you believe you've front-run the herd, you're now in mid-air along with the rest of the herd that has thundered off the cliff. We're awash in financial charts, but only a few crystallize an entire year. Here are the two charts that sum up everything you need to know about the stock market in 2020.

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CHARLES HUGH SMITH – Huge Globalization Cycle Is Ending

2020-01-02

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What does gun violence in America look like? | The Economist

2020-01-02

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Mass shootings dominate the gun-violence debate in America, even though they account for less than 0.3% of gun-deaths. At The Economist’s Open Future festival in Chicago three leading campaigners against gun violence explored the problem and what should be done to stop it. Read more here: https://econ.st/37wOzH4 Click here to subscribe to The Economist on …

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The Fed’s “Not-QE” and the $33 Trillion Stock Market in Three Charts

2020-01-02

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2020-01-02

U.S. Stock Market
One day the stock market 'falcon' will no longer hear the Fed 'falconer', and the Pavlovian magical thinking will break down as the market goes bidless. The past decade has shown that when the Federal Reserve creates trillions of dollars out of thin air (QE), U.S. stocks rise accordingly. The correlation is very nearly perfect.

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Inflation Fairy Tale: Why It’s Deflation We Should Worry About (w/ Steven Van Metre & Jeff Snider)

2020-01-01

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Is inflation on the horizon? Should bank reserve balances stored with the Federal Reserve count as "money"? According to Jeffrey Snider, head of global research at Alhambra Investment Partners, and Steven Van Metre, macro fund manager and founder of Portfolio Shield, the answer to these questions is a resounding "no." Drawing upon a data ranging from Treasury auction sales to Eurodollar futures curves, van Metre and Snider explain why low yields...

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X22Report: The People Are Waking Up, The Elite Are No Longer In Control:Charles Hugh Smith 12-31-19

2020-01-01

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czEeVi1Laec

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A Sour End To The 2010’s Doesn’t Have To Spoil The Entire 2020’s

2020-01-01

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2020-01-01

China GDP, 2011-2019
It has been perhaps the most astonishing divergence in the first two decades of 21st century history. In late 2017, Western economic officials (mostly central bankers) were taking their victory laps. They took great pains to tell the world it was due to their profound wisdom, deep courage, and, most of all, determined patience, that they had been able to see their policies through to the light of day (no thanks to voters around the world).

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The People Are Waking Up, The Elite Are No Longer In Control:Charles Hugh Smith

2020-01-01

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Prepare Today And Save $70 On A 2-Week Emergency Food Kit My Patriot Supply http://preparewithx22.com Today’s Guest: Charles Hugh Smith Website: Of Two Minds http://oftwominds.com Most of artwork that are included with these videos have been created by X22 Report and they are used as a representation of the subject matter. The representative artwork included …

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The Hour Is Getting Late

2019-12-31

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2019-12-31

Total Assets, 2015-2019
After 11 years of "the Fed is the market" expansion, the Fed has now reduced its bloated balance sheet by 6.7%. This is normal, right? So here we are in Year 11 of the longest economic expansion/ stock market bubble in recent history, and by any measure, the hour is getting late, to quote Mr. Dylan: So let us not talk falsely nowthe hour is getting lateBob Dylan, "All Along the Watchtower"

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-12-29

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2019-12-29

EM FX was broadly firmer last week, taking advantage of the dollar’s soft tone as well as another wave of risk-on sentiment.  Bullishness on the global economy is quite strong, whilst we are perhaps a bit more skeptical given ongoing weakness in the UK, Japan, and the eurozone.  Dollar bearishness may also be overdone given our more constructive outlook on the US economy, but technical damage has been done that must now be repaired.

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Is Social Media the New Tobacco?

2019-12-28

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2019-12-28

Smartphone Addiction Tightens Its Global Grip
If we set out to design a highly addictive platform that optimized the most toxic, destructive aspects of human nature, we'd eventually come up with social media.

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What will be the biggest stories of 2020? | The Economist

2019-12-27

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The battle for the White House, a possible global recession, Beethoven the eco-warrior, nurses taking centre stage and a controversial Olympic Games. These are The Economist’s predictions for the top stories of 2020. Find out more here: https://econ.st/2MxvZ9U Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ …

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Olympics 2020: are the rules for trans athletes fair? | The Economist

2019-12-26

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In 2020 transgender athletes may take part in the Olympic Games for the first time. But allowing transgender women to compete in women’s sport is provoking a heated debate about inclusion and fairness. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full …

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Welcome to the Era of Intensifying Chaos and New Weapons of Conflict

2019-12-25

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2019-12-25

Geopolitics has moved from a slow-moving, relatively predictable chess match to rapidly evolving 3-D chess in which the rules keep changing in unpredictable ways. A declining standard of living in the developed world, declining growth for the developed world and geopolitical jockeying for control of resources make for a highly combustible mix awaiting a spark: welcome to the era of intensifying chaos and the rapid advance of new weapons of conflict...

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All-Stars #85 Jeff Snider: U.S. Dollar Year End Review & 2020 Outlook

2019-12-23

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Please visit our website www.macrovoices.com to register your free account to gain access to supporting materials.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2019-12-23

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2019-12-23

EM FX was mostly firmer last week.  ZAR, PEN, and CLP outperformed while TRY, HUF, and CNY underperformed.  MSCI EM traded at new highs for the cycle but ran out of steam near the 1110 area, while MSCI EM FX lagged a bit and has yet to surpass its July high.  Overall, the backdrop for EM remains constructive but investors must be prepared to differentiate amongst credits in 2020.

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Our Fragmentation Accelerates

2019-12-22

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2019-12-22

As our fragmentation accelerates, shared economic interests are ignored in favor of divisive warring camps that share no common interests. That our society and economy are fragmenting is self-evident. This fragmentation is accelerating rapidly, as middle ground vanishes and competing camps harden their positions to solidify the loyalty of the "tribe." 

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Everything Comes Down To Which Way The Dollar Is Leaning

2019-12-21

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2019-12-21

Rising Dollar Squeeze
Is the global economy on the mend as everyone at least here in America is now assuming? For anyone else to attempt to answer that question, they might first have to figure out what went wrong in the first place. Most have simply assumed, and continue to assume, it has been fallout from the “trade wars.”

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MACRO ANALYTICS – 12 19 19 – The New Weapons of Conflict w/ Charles Hugh Smith

2019-12-20

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NOTE: THIS IS NOT AN INTERVIEW BUT RATHER AN ONGOING MONTHLY EXCHANGE BETWEEN CHARLES AND GORDON WHICH IS MADE AVAILABLE TO THE PUBLIC AS A PUBLIC SERVICE. VIDEO NOTIFICATION SIGN-UP: http://bit.ly/2y63PvX-Sign-Up VIDEO ABSTRACT: http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2019/12/welcome-to-era-of-intensifying-chaos.html NEWSLETTER: 04-01-20 https://conta.cc/2X0WFWx Thank you to all Macro Analytics/Gordon T Long YouTube followers. I will continue to add...

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