Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Hong Kong Turbulence Likely to Rise as US-China Relations Worsen

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

Recent moves by China call into direct question the “one country, two systems” approach.  Hong Kong assets have held up surprisingly well but we see turbulence ahead as US-China relations are set to deteriorate further.

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An Economy That Cannot Allow Stocks to Decline Is Too Fragile To Survive

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

Nasdaq 100 Index, 2020
The fragile ice shelf of speculative bets and debt clinging to the mountainside is making strange creaking sounds-- will you listen or will you ignore it because 'the Fed has our back'? Feast your eyes on the chart below of the Nasdaq 100 stock market Index, which is dominated by the six FAAMNG (rhymes with "famine") stocks: Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Netflix and Google which now account for over 20% of the entire U.S. stock market's...

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Restricted Market Trading Comments

2020-05-28

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2020-05-28

By Dara O’Sullivan, Derrick Leonard, and Ilan Solot, Covid-19 related measures for restricted markets remain largely unchanged this week. Philippines, Bangladesh and Kuwait have extended their lockdown periods, while Kenya and Nigeria continue to face limited liquidity.

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Covid-19: why the economy could fare worse than you think | The Economist

2020-05-27

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Three months after lockdown was relaxed in China, its economy is now running at around 90% of normal levels. Although 90% may sound fine, for many it could be catastrophic. Read more here: https://econ.st/2AeZ86k Further reading: Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest covid-19 coverage: https://econ.trib.al/YD53WI6 Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here: https://econ.st/2QXX9sJ Read...

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Covid-19: why the economy could fare worse than you think | The Economist

2020-05-27

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Three months after lockdown was relaxed in China, its economy is now running at around 90% of normal levels. Although 90% may sound fine, for many it could be catastrophic. Read more here: https://econ.st/2AeZ86k Further reading: Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest covid-19 coverage: https://econ.trib.al/YD53WI6 Find …

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Re-Opening the Economy Won’t Fix What’s Broken

2020-05-27

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2020-05-27

Student Loans Owned and Securitized, 2008-2020
Re-opening a fragile, brittle, bankrupt, hopelessly perverse and corrupt "normal" won't fix what's broken. The stock market is in a frenzy of euphoria at the re-opening of the economy. Too bad the re-opening won't fix what's broken. As I've been noting recently, the real problem is the systemic fragility of the U.S. economy, which has lurched from one new extreme to the next to maintain a thin, brittle veneer of normalcy.

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So Much Dollar Bull

2020-05-27

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2020-05-27

TIC - US Banking Data, 2006-2020
According to the Federal Reserve’s calculations, the US dollar in Q1 pulled off its best quarter in more than twenty years – though it really didn’t need the full quarter to do it. The last time the Fed’s trade-weighed dollar index managed to appreciate farther than the 7.1% it had in the first three months of 2020, the year was 1997 during its final quarter when almost the whole of Asia was just about to get clobbered.In second place (now third)...

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Crypto Soundbites 3 – Jeff Snider, Defiance and Lyn Alden

2020-05-25

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3 clips this week, Defiance takes a big look at how you money gets diluted. Jeff Snider takes on the Fed and Nathaniel Whitmore talks to Lyn Alden about how the potential for Inflation vs Deflation. Links to the episodes below. What the Fed with Jeff Snider https://youtu.be/E2gCKaejiso Lyn Alden https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEhDdWJZ3HI Defiance https://www.defiance.news/podcast/the-money-game-cheaters-edition

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The Pandemic Gives Us Permission To Get What We Always Wanted

2020-05-24

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2020-05-24

Dear Corporate America: maybe you remember the old Johnny Paycheck tune? Let me refresh your memory: take this job and shove it. Put yourself in the shoes of a single parent waiting tables in a working-class cafe with lousy tips, a worker stuck with high rent and a soul-deadening commute--one of the tens of millions of America's working poor who have seen their wages stagnate and their income becoming increasingly precarious / uncertain while the...

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Dollar Firm as China’s Hong Kong Gambit Triggers Risk-Off Trading

2020-05-23

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2020-05-23

Legislation was introduced that allows Beijing to directly impose a national security law on Hong Kong; US-China tensions are still rising; the dollar is bid as risk-off sentiment takes hold. There are no US data reports or Fed speakers today; Canada reports March retail sales; Mexico reports mid-May CPI.

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Why politicians have failed to tackle climate change | The Economist

2020-05-22

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Global warming is the defining threat facing the planet. So why has so little been done to curb it? Read more here: https://econ.st/3gevRJu Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Sign up to receive The Economist’s fortnightly newsletter to keep up to date with our latest coverage on climate change: https://econ.st/3dZrKz6 Find our school briefings series here, including our recent climate explainers:...

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Why politicians have failed to tackle climate change | The Economist

2020-05-22

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Global warning is the defining threat facing the planet. So why has so little been done to curb it? Read more here: https://econ.st/3gevRJu Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy Sign up to receive The Economist’s fortnightly newsletter to keep up to date with our latest coverage on climate change: https://econ.st/3dZrKz6 Find …

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No Flight To Recognize Shortage

2020-05-22

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2020-05-22

If there’s been one small measure of progress, and a needed one, it has been the mainstream finally pushing commentary into the right category. Back in ’08, during the worst of GFC1 you’d hear it all described as “flight to safety.” That, however, didn’t correctly connote the real nature of what was behind the global economy’s dramatic wreckage. Flight to safety, whether Treasuries or dollars, wasn’t it.

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Dollar Firm as US-China Tensions Flare

2020-05-22

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2020-05-22

The virus news stream is mixed; the dollar has stabilized; US-China tensions continue to ratchet up. We will get some more US economic data for May; weekly jobless claims are expected at 2.4 mln. Eurozone and UK reported firm preliminary May PMI readings; BOE officials continue to take a very dovish tone.

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What the Fed. w/ Jeff Snider & Emil Kalinowski; Crypto Liquidity, Inflation… and he hints at XRP

2020-05-21

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We have the honor of Hosting Alhambra Investments Chief Researcher, Jeff Snider and Eurodollar University's own Emil Kalinowski and we're going to peel back the layers or "perceived" layers of the Federal Reserve and Broader Financial Markets and ask the question... what would REAL US STIMULUS look like? It's going to be an incredible Show! Check out Eurodollar University - Alhambra Investments...

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The Claims Podcast – Episode #1 – Jeff Snider

2020-05-21

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In the inaugural episode of The Claims Podcast, LSG COO Matthew Markham sits down with Jeff Snider of Gradient AI to discuss the future of predictive analytics in insurtech, legaltech and regtech. Both LSG and Gradient AI offer machine-learning-enabled software for insurance companies, TPAs and enterprises in order to bring down the cost of their legal spend, as part of a broader litigation spend management strategy.  *** ABOUT LSG Website:...

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Dollar Treads Water Ahead of FOMC Minutes

2020-05-21

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2020-05-21

The virus news stream is mixed; the dollar has stabilized a bit. FOMC minutes will be released; Canada reports April CPI and March wholesale trade sales; the news from Brazil keeps getting worse. Another group of EU nations will release their own plan in a rebuttal of France and Germany; UK reported April CPI data.

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So Much Bond Bull

2020-05-21

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2020-05-21

Federal Reserve: H.10 Foreign Exchange Rates, 2017-2020
Count me among the bond vigilantes. On the issue of supply I yield (pun intended) to no one. The US government is the brokest entity humanity has ever conceived – and that was before March 2020. There will be a time, if nothing is done, where this will matter a great deal.That time isn’t today nor is it tomorrow or anytime soon because it’s the demand side which is so confusing and misdirected.

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Consumer Spending Will Not Rebound–Here’s Why

2020-05-20

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2020-05-20

Share of total US income, 1980-2015
Any economy that concentrates its wealth and income in the top tier is a fragile economy. There are two structural reasons why consumer spending will not rebound, no matter how open the economy may be. Virtually everyone who glances at headlines knows the global economy is lurching into either a deep recession or a full-blown depression, depending on the definitions one is using. Everyone also knows the stock market has roared back as if nothing...

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Covid-19: Britain’s chief of the defence staff talks about the military challenges | The Economist

2020-05-19

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Armed forces around the world have mobilised to fight covid-19. General Sir Nick Carter, the most senior uniformed military adviser to the British government, talks to Anne McElvoy about the challenges—and dangers—posed by the pandemic. See all of The Economist’s podcasts here: https://econ.st/3g58fak China’s opacity has allowed conspiracy theories around covid-19’s origins to flourish. Where …

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