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Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Looking Past Gigantic Base Effects To China’s (Really) Struggling Economy

2021-03-16

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2021-03-16

China Industrial Production, 1999-2021
The Chinese were first to go down because they had been first to shut down, therefore one year further on they’ll be the first to skew all their economic results when being compared to it. These obvious base effects will, without further scrutiny, make analysis slightly more difficult.

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The Cannibalization Is Complete: Only Inedible Zombies Remain

2021-03-13

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2021-03-13

Poor powerless Fed, poor starving cannibals, poor zombies turning to dust. That's the American economy once the curtains are ripped away. Setting aside the fictional flood of zombie movies for a moment, we find the real-world horror is the cannibalization of our economy, a cannibalization that is now complete.

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How to crunch covid-19 data | The Economist

2021-03-12

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Data analysis has been crucial to better understanding, tracking and preventing the spread of covid-19. The Economist's data journalists give an insider’s steer on how their analysis and presentation of data has shaped our coverage of the pandemic. See all our data journalism in The Economist's graphic detail section: https://econ.st/3qEZnMD Keep up to date with our data journalism by signing up to “Off the Charts,” our new weekly newsletter:...

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JOLTS Revisions: Much Better Reopening, But Why Didn’t It Last?

2021-03-12

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2021-03-12

JOLTS - Job Openings, SA 2017-2021
According to newly revised BLS benchmarks, the labor market might have been a little bit worse than previously thought during the worst of last year’s contraction. Coming out of it, the initial rebound, at least, seems to have been substantially better – either due to government checks or, more likely, American businesses in the initial reopening phase eager to get back up and running on a paying basis again.

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What Gold Says About UST Auctions

2021-03-11

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2021-03-11

US Treasury & Auction Rates, 2018-2021
The “too many” Treasury argument which ignited early in 2018 never made a whole lot of sense. It first showed up, believe it or not, in 2016. The idea in both cases was fiscal debt; Uncle Sam’s deficit monster displayed a voracious appetite never in danger of slowing down even though – Economists and central bankers claimed – it would’ve been wise to heed looming inflationary pressures to cut back first.

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How covid-19 is boosting innovation | The Economist

2021-03-10

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Covid-19 has accelerated the adoption of technologies and pushed the world faster into the future. As businesses and organisations look towards the post-pandemic era, what lessons can be learned about innovation? Read more here: https://econ.st/3t6T7yM Chapters 00:00 - How has covid-19 boosted innovation? 01:20 - Drone deliveries 04:20 - How crises lead to innovation 06:47 - How restaurants have innovated 09:29 - Inequality between companies 10:48...

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4 Social Security Planning Steps BEFORE You’re Ready to Retire

2021-03-10

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2021-03-10

Social Security is an important part of almost every retirement plan, whether you’ve saved enough or not. That’s why it’s important to know as much about your Social Security situation as possible. And you don’t want to wait until you’re about to retire to gather the facts and take appropriate steps. Social Security planning needs to start 5 years before your target retirement date.

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Deja Vu: Treasury Shorts Meet Treasury Shortages

2021-03-10

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2021-03-10

UST Yield Curve, 2013
Investors like to short bonds, even Treasuries, as much as they might stocks and their ilk. It should be no surprise that profit-maximizing speculators will seek the best risk-adjusted returns wherever and whenever they might perceive them.

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Too Busy Frontrunning Inflation, Nobody Sees the Deflationary Tsunami

2021-03-08

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2021-03-08

Those looking up from their "free fish!" frolicking will see the tsunami too late to save themselves. It's an amazing sight to see the water recede from the bay, and watch the crowd frolic in the shallows, scooping up the flopping fish. In this case, the crowd doing the "so easy to catch, why not grab as much as we can?" scooping is frontrunning inflation, the universally expected result of the Great Reflation Trade.

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Nuclear power: why is it so unpopular? | The Economist

2021-03-05

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The meltdown at a nuclear power station in Fukushima, Japan, ten years ago stoked anxieties about nuclear energy. But nuclear is one of the safest, most reliable and sustainable forms of energy, and decarbonising will be much more difficult without it. Further content: Sign up to our newsletter about climate change: https://econ.st/38bLSO9 The Economist also has a new weekly newsletter, Simply Science: https://econ.st/3uWjw4b Find all our...

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There’s Two Sides To Synchronize

2021-03-03

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2021-03-03

The offside of “synchronized” is pretty obvious when you consider all possibilities. In economic terms, synchronized growth would mean if the bulk of the economy starts moving forward, we’d expect the rest to follow with only a slight lag. That’s the upside of harmonized systems, the period everyone hopes and cheers for.

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About That +6.8 percent GDP Forecast: Remember That GDP = Waste

2021-03-02

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2021-03-02

Any economy stupid enough to rely on the insane distortions of GDP "growth" as its primary measure will richly deserve a Darwin Award when it inevitably collapses in a putrid heap of squandered resources and capital.

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

2021-03-02

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Lundi 1 mars 2021, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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What “Normal” Are We Returning To? The Depression Nobody Dares Acknowledge

2021-03-01

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2021-03-01

Perhaps we need an honest national dialog about declining expectations, rising inequality, social depression and the failure of the status quo. Even as the chirpy happy-talk of a return to normal floods the airwaves, what nobody dares acknowledge is that "normal" for a rising number of Americans is the social depression of downward mobility and social defeat.

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Three Things About Today’s UST Sell-off, Beginning With Fedwire

2021-02-28

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2021-02-28

UST Yield Curve, 1990
Three relatively quick observations surrounding today’s UST selloff.1. The intensity. Reflation is the underlying short run basis, but there is ample reason to suspect quite a bit more than that alone given the unexpected interruption in Fedwire yesterday.

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Iran v America: what’s behind the feud? | The Economist

2021-02-27

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Iran and America’s decades-long feud has led to hostage-taking, sanctions and proxy wars that have shaped the Middle East. What is behind the feud, and can it be resolved? Chapters 00:00 - The history of the feud 01:01 - 1951-53: The Persian Oil Crisis 02:04 - The 1953 coup 04:11 - 1978-1979: The Iranian revolution 05:12 - 1979-81: The hostage crisis 06:58 - 1980-88: The Iraq-Iran war 09:06 - 1983: US embassy bombing 09:50 - Hizbullah 11:00 - The...

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Oil and Debt: Why Our Financial System Is Unsustainable

2021-02-25

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2021-02-25

Primary energy consumption by source, 1965-2018
How much energy, water and food will the "money" created out of thin air in the future buy? Finance is often cloaked in arcane terminology and math, but the one dynamic that governs the future is actually very simple.

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Nine Percent of GDP Fiscal, Ha! Try Forty

2021-02-25

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2021-02-25

Japan CPI, 2006-2021
Fear of the ultra-inflationary aspects of fiscal overdrive. This is the current message, but according to what basis? Bigger is better, therefore if the last one didn’t work then the much larger next one absolutely will. So long as you forget there was a last one and when that prior version had been announced it was also given the same benefit of the doubt.

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For The Dollar, Not How Much But How Long Therefore How Familiar

2021-02-24

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2021-02-24

US Dollar / Brazilian Real, 2020-2021
Brazil’s stock market was rocked yesterday by politics. The country’s “populist” President, Jair Bolsonaro, said he was going to name an army general who had served with Bolsomito (a nickname given to him by supporters) during that country’s prior military dictatorship as CEO of state-owned oil giant Petróleo Brasileiro SA. Gen. Joaquim Silva e Luna is being installed, allegedly, to facilitate more direct control of the company by the federal...

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What Might Be In *Another* Market-based Yield Curve Twist?

2021-02-23

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2021-02-23

Pro forma CES Private Payrolls, 2020-2021
With the UST yield curve currently undergoing its own market-based twist, it’s worth investigating a couple potential reasons for it. On the one hand, the long end, clear cut reflation: markets are not, as is commonly told right now, pricing 1979 Great Inflation #2, rather how the next few years may not be as bad (deflationary) as once thought a few months ago.

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