Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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What Makes You Think the Stock Market Will Even Exist in 2024?

2020-07-06

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2020-07-06

The Fruit of Financialization, 1980-2014
Given the extremes of the stock market's frauds and even greater extremes of wealth/income inequality it has created, tell me again why the stock market will still exist in 2024? When I read a financial pundit predicting a bull market in stocks through 2024, blah-blah-blah, I wonder: what makes you think the stock market will even exist in 2024, at least in its current form?

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-07-06

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2020-07-06

Risk assets remain hostage to swings in market sentiment. Stronger than expected US jobs data last week was welcome news. However, the tug of war between improving economic data and worsening viral numbers is likely to continue this week, with many US states reporting record high infection rates.

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Reality Beckons: Even Bigger Payroll Gains, Much Less Fuss Over Them

2020-07-05

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2020-07-05

What a difference a month makes. The euphoria clearly fading even as the positive numbers grow bigger still. The era of gigantic pluses is only reaching its prime, which might seem a touch pessimistic given the context. In terms of employment and the labor market, reaction to the Current Employment Situation (CES) report seems to indicate widespread recognition of this situation. And that means how there are actually two labor markets at the moment.

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Dancing Through the Geopolitical Minefield

2020-07-04

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2020-07-04

The Global Wealth Pyramid
The elites dancing through the minefield all have plans, but how many are prepared for the punch in the mouth? Open any newspaper from the past 100 years and you will soon find a newsworthy geopolitical hotspot or conflict. 

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Covid-19: what will happen to the global economy? | The Economist

2020-07-03

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The covid-19 pandemic has caused economic chaos and uncertainty. Zanny Minton Beddoes, our editor-in-chief, and Edward Carr, our deputy editor, answer your questions about the global economy Further reading: Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here: https://econ.st/31E02VY Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest covid-19 coverage: https://econ.st/3ghRh7W Read our briefing on the damage...

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Dollar Soft Ahead of Jobs Report

2020-07-03

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2020-07-03

Presidential Elections Odds, 2020
Re-shutdowns continue to spread across the US; the dollar has come under pressure again. Jobs data is the highlight ahead of the long holiday weekend in the US; weekly jobless claims will be reported. FOMC minutes were revelatory; the Fed for now will rely on “outcome-based” forward guidance and asset purchases to achieve its goals; US House passed the latest China sanctions bill.

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An Interesting Juncture in History

2020-07-02

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2020-07-02

US Health care, 1960-2010
Just as the rewards of central-bank bubbles have not been evenly distributed, the pain created by the collapse of the bubbles won't be evenly distributed, either. We've reached an interesting juncture in history, and I don't mean the pandemic. I'm referring to the normalization of extremes in the economy, in social decay and in political dysfunction and polarization.

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Charles Hugh Smith – People Are Now Aware Of What Will Happen

2020-07-01

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Recently, people are more aware of what can happen. This awareness raises in economic conditions and political realities make people think. Every new choice is a new beginning for people. SUBSCRIBE For The Latest Issues About ; #useconomy2020 #economynews #useconomy #coronaviruseconomy #marketeconomy #worldeconomy #reopeneconomy #openeconomy #economynews #reopeningeconomy #globaleconomy #silverprice #stockmarket #recession #goldpricetoday...

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What The PMIs Aren’t Really Saying, In China As Elsewhere

2020-07-01

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2020-07-01

China PMI, 2010-2020
China’s PMI’s continue to impress despite the fact they continue to be wholly unimpressive. As with most economic numbers in today’s stock-focused obsessiveness, everything is judged solely by how much it “surprises.” Surprises who? Doesn’t matter; some faceless group of analysts and Economists whose short-term modeling has somehow become the very standard of performance.

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Dollar Begins the Week Under Pressure Again

2020-06-30

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2020-06-30

The best prime minister
The virus news stream remains negative; pressure on the dollar has resumed. The US economy is taking a step back just as Q3 is about to get under way; there are some minor US data reports today. UK Labour leader Starmer overtook Prime Minister Johnson in the latest opinion poll; Macron’s party did poorly in French local elections.

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Looking Ahead Through Japan

2020-06-30

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2020-06-30

Japan Industry & Commerce, SA 2013-2020
After the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Tokyo with tales seemingly spun from some sci-fi disaster movie, all eyes turned to Japan. Cruisers had boarded the vacation vessel in Yokohama on January 20 already knowing that there was something bad going on in China’s Wuhan. The big ship would head out anyway for a fourteen-day tour of Vietnam, Taiwan, and, yes, China.

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EM Preview for the Week Ahead

2020-06-29

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2020-06-29

Risk assets came under pressure last week as the virus news stream worsened. It’s clear that large parts of the US will be forced to delay reopening until their virus numbers improve. Markets had gotten too bullish on the US recovery story and so this reality check soured sentiment. This is a very important week for US data, and we think risk sentiment will remain under pressure ahead of what we think will be a likely downside surprise in the US...

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Forget the V, W or L Recovery: Focus on N-P-B

2020-06-29

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2020-06-29

Depression Dominoes Fall
The only realistic Plan B is a fundamental, permanent re-ordering of the cost structure of the entire U.S. economy. The fantasy of a V-shaped recovery has evaporated, and expectations for a W or L-shaped recovery are increasingly untenable. So forget V, W and L; the letters that will shape the future are N, P, B: there is No Plan B.

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Wait A Minute, What’s This Inversion?

2020-06-28

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2020-06-28

Eurodollar Futures Curve, 2018-2024
Back in the middle of 2018, this kind of thing was at least straight forward and intuitive. If there was any confusion, it wasn’t related to the mechanics, rather most people just couldn’t handle the possibility this was real. Jay Powell said inflation, rate hikes, and accelerating growth. Absolutely hawkish across-the-board.And yet, all the way back in the middle of June 2018 the eurodollar curve started to say, hold on a minute.

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Recent Trade Developments Suggest Some Caution Ahead Warranted

2020-06-27

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2020-06-27

WTO Trade Outlook, 2005-2021
There’s never a good time for a trade war. Yet here we are on the cusp of one between the US and the EU over unfair aircraft subsidies and comes at a time when renewed COVID-19 outbreaks are making the global economic outlook even cloudier. These developments suggest some caution ahead is warranted for risk assets like EM and equities.

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Not COVID-19, Watch For The Second Wave of GFC2

2020-06-27

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2020-06-27

Federal Reserve SLOOS, 1990-2020
I guess in some ways it’s a race against the clock. What the optimists are really saying is the equivalent of the old eighties neo-Keynesian notion of filling in the troughs. That’s what government spending and monetary “stimulus” intend to accomplish, to limit the downside in a bid to buy time. Time for what? The economy to heal on its own.

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How to fix the United Nations | The Economist Podcasts

2020-06-26

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As the United Nations turns 75 years old, the world order it established has never been under greater strain. On “The Economist Asks” podcast, Antonio Guterres, the UN secretary-general, explains how—and why—international cooperation needs to be fixed. 00:31 - Mr Guterres, the UN turns 75 at a moment of multiple crises and new challenges. You’ve said yourself that these are “dark days”. How would you define the biggest challenges? 01:51 - If we...

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Dollar Firm as Risk-Off Sentiment Persists

2020-06-26

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2020-06-26

Coronavirus Daily Change, 2020
Higher infection numbers in the US and other countries continue to fuel risk aversion across global markets; the IMF released more pessimistic global growth forecasts yesterday. The US has rekindled trade provocations against China through Huawei; weekly jobless claims will be reported; regional Fed manufacturing surveys for June will continue to roll out.

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Is Data Our New False Religion?

2020-06-26

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2020-06-26

In the false religion of data, heresy is asking for data that is not being collected because it might reveal unpalatably unprofitable realities. Here's how every modern con starts: let's look at the data. Every modern con starts with an earnest appeal to look at the data because the con artist has assembled the data to grease the slides of the con.

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Covid-19: is working from home really the new normal? | The Economist

2020-06-25

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The covid-19 pandemic has accelerated a shift towards remote working. This could affect not just people’s working lives, but the shape of cities, gender equality and even how we measure time. Read more here: https://econ.st/3fXZVZ7 Further reading: Find The Economist’s most recent coverage of covid-19 here: https://econ.st/2Z4kI6C Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest covid-19 coverage:...

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