Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

One Solution to Soaring Food Prices: Start Your 2022 Garden Now

2021-11-08

by

2021-11-08

There is a great deal of joy and satisfaction in gardening; benefits include saving money, eating healthier, sharing the bounty with others and reducing the derealization / derangement of modern life.

Read More »

Whistleblowers Torpedo Facebook and Pfizer: Who’s Next?

2021-11-07

by

2021-11-07

If America's total dependence on corporate profits and stock market/housing bubbles is just fine because the bubbles just keep inflating, there's nothing left but rot.

Read More »

Reading Jeff Snider: Nobody’s Looking, Economic Activity Revised Down [Ep. 147, Macropiece Theater]

2021-11-07

by

The September 2021 reading for America's new orders of durable goods shows stagnation / stalling. It is likely much worse but we won't know it for several years, not until the benchmark revisions are performed. We've seen this before, in 2018.

Read More »

The Wile E. Powell Inflation: Are We Really Just Going To Ignore The Cliff?

2021-11-06

by

2021-11-06

Last year did not end on a sound note. The initial rebound after 2020’s recession was supposed to be a straight line, lifting upward for the other side of the infamous “V” shape. Such hopes had been dashed, though, and as the disappointing year wound toward its own end yet another big problem loomed.

Read More »

Brian Cox: Why Succession struck a chord | The Economist

2021-11-05

by

Brian Cox of HBO’s “Succession” reveals what it’s like to play the tyrannical media mogul and patriarch Logan Roy, and why the show struck such a chord in Trump's America. 00:00 - The success of “Succession” 00:50 - Brian Cox’s career and playing Logan Roy 01:33 - How he finds humanity in Logan Roy 03:42 - Real-life comparisons to the Roys 04:36 - “Succession” in Trump’s America 05:44 - The politics of “Succession” 07:09 - Social mobility and...

Read More »

What Does Taper Look Like From The Inside? Not At All What You’d Think

2021-11-05

by

2021-11-05

Why always round numbers? Monetary policy targets in the post-Volcker era are changed on even terms. Alan Greenspan had his quarter-point fed funds moves. Ben Bernanke faced with crisis would auction $25 billion via TAF. QE’s are done in even numbers, either total purchases or their monthly pace.

Read More »

Revenge of the Real World

2021-11-04

by

2021-11-04

The status quo response would be amusing if the consequences weren't so dire. Rather than stare at empty shelves, you have two options for distraction: you can don a virtual-reality headset and cavort with dolphins in the metaverse, or you can trade various forms of phantom wealth that always go up (happy happy!) because the Fed.

Read More »

The Real Tantrum Should Be Over The Disturbing Lack of Celebration (higher yields)

2021-11-03

by

2021-11-03

Bring on the tantrum. Forget this prevaricating, we should want and expect interest rates to get on with normalizing. It’s been a long time, verging to the insanity of a decade and a half already that keeps trending more downward through time. What’s the holdup?

Read More »

Will China Pop the Global Everything Bubble? Yes

2021-11-02

by

2021-11-02

The line of dominoes that is already toppling extends around the entire global economy and financial system. Plan accordingly. That China faces structural problems is well-recognized.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)

2021-11-02

by

2021-11-02

Alhambra CEO talks about last week’s reversal in bonds yields, if there’s a growth scare, what the yield curve is saying, plus reports on wages & salaries, core capital goods, and jobless claims.

Read More »

Bill Issuance Has Absolutely Surged, So Why *Haven’t* Yields, Reflation, And Other Good Things?

2021-11-02

by

2021-11-02

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hasn’t just been busy hawking cash management bills, her department has also been filling back up with the usual stuff, too. Regular T-bills. Going back to October 14, at the same time the CMB’s have been revived, so, too, have the 4-week and 13-week (3-month). Not the 8-week, though.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Scare?

2021-11-01

by

2021-11-01

A couple of weeks ago the 10 year Treasury note yield rose 16 basis points in the course of 5 trading days. That move was driven by near term inflation fears as I discussed last week. Long term inflation expectations were and are well behaved.

Read More »

Reading Jeff Snider: Why Do We Think Inflation Expectations Matter? [Ep. 139, Macropiece Theater]

2021-10-31

by

Federal Reserve economist Jeremy Rudd's paper savages the use of inflation expectations in monetary econometrics. He lambasts the profession for producing "minimal direct evidence" and the "next-to-no-examination of alternatives". A reading, by Emil Kalinowski.

Read More »

GDP Red Flag

2021-10-31

by

2021-10-31

There were no surprises in today’s US GDP data. As expected, output sharply decelerated, modestly missing much-reduced expectations. The continuously compounded annual rate of change for Q3 2021 compared to Q2 was the tiniest bit less than 2% (1.99591%) given most recent expectations had been closer to 3%.

Read More »

See what three degrees of global warming looks like | The Economist

2021-10-30

by

If global temperatures rise three degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the results would be catastrophic. It’s an entirely plausible scenario, and this film shows you what it would look like. 00:00 - What will a 3°C world look like? 00:57 - Climate change is already having devastating effects 02:58 - How climate modelling works 04:06 - Nowhere is safe from global warming 05:20 - The impact of prolonged droughts 08:24 - Rising sea levels,...

Read More »

Santa’s Revenge: Everyone Front-Running My Rally, You Get Nothing

2021-10-30

by

2021-10-30

Santa is generally a jolly fellow, but that doesn't mean he doesn't take pleasure in meting our well-deserved punishment to the greedy.

Read More »

The Enormously Important Reasons To Revisit The Revisions Already Several Times Revisited

2021-10-29

by

2021-10-29

Extraordinary times call for extraordinary commitment. I never set out nor imagined that a quarter century after embarking on what I thought would be a career managing portfolios, researching markets, and picking investments, I’d instead have to spend a good amount of my time in the future taking apart how raw economic data is collected, tabulated, and then disseminated.

Read More »

Short Run TIPS, LT Flat, Basically Awful Real(ity)

2021-10-28

by

2021-10-28

Over the past week and a half, Treasury has rolled out the CMB’s (cash management bills; like Treasury bills, special issues not otherwise part of the regular debt rotation) one after another: $60 billion 40-day on the 19th; $60 billion 27-day on the 20th; and $40 billion 48-day just yesterday.

Read More »

What’s the future of food? | The Economist

2021-10-27

by

Over one-third of greenhouse-gas emissions come from food production. For a greener future, this urgently needs to change. What’s the future of food in a more sustainable world? Our experts answer your questions. This film is supported by @Infosys - https://impact.economist.com/sustainability 00:00 - Food’s environmental impact 00:44 - Why it’s important to make food sustainable 01:34 - Will everyone have to give up meat? 02:13 - Can...

Read More »

What *Seems* Inflation Now Is Something Else Entirely

2021-10-27

by

2021-10-27

This is yet another one of those crucial recent developments which should contribute much clarity about the economic situation, yet is exploited in other ways (political) adding only more to the general state of economic confusion. The shelves may be empty in a lot of places around the country, leaving anyone with the impression there just aren’t enough goods.

Read More »