Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

Nine Percent of GDP Fiscal, Ha! Try Forty

2021-02-25

Fear of the ultra-inflationary aspects of fiscal overdrive. This is the current message, but according to what basis? Bigger is better, therefore if the last one didn’t work then the much larger next one absolutely will. So long as you forget there was a last one and when that prior version had been announced it was also given the same benefit of the doubt.

Read More »

For The Dollar, Not How Much But How Long Therefore How Familiar

2021-02-24

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2021-02-24

Brazil’s stock market was rocked yesterday by politics. The country’s “populist” President, Jair Bolsonaro, said he was going to name an army general who had served with Bolsomito (a nickname given to him by supporters) during that country’s prior military dictatorship as CEO of state-owned oil giant Petróleo Brasileiro SA. Gen. Joaquim Silva e Luna is being installed, allegedly, to facilitate more direct control of the company by the federal...

Read More »

What Might Be In Another Market-based Yield Curve Twist?

2021-02-23

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2021-02-23

Pro forma CES Private Payrolls, 2020-2021

With the UST yield curve currently undergoing its own market-based twist, it’s worth investigating a couple potential reasons for it. On the one hand, the long end, clear cut reflation: markets are not, as is commonly told right now, pricing 1979 Great Inflation #2, rather how the next few years may not be as bad (deflationary) as once thought a few months ago.

Read More »

Weekly Market Pulse – Real Rates Finally Make A Move

2021-02-22

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2021-02-22

Last week was only four days due to the President’s day holiday but it was eventful. The big news of the week was the spike in interest rates, which according to the press reports I read, “came out of nowhere”. In other words, the writers couldn’t find an obvious cause for a 14 basis point rise in the 10 year Treasury note yield so they just chalked it up to mystery.

Read More »

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 46; Part 3: Bill’s Reading On Reflation, And Other Charted Potpourri

2021-02-21

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2021-02-21

46.3 On the Economic Road to NothingGoodVilleRecent, low consumer price inflation readings combined with falling US Treasury Bill yields are cautionary sign posts that say this reflationary path may not be the road to recovery but a deflationary cul-de-sac.

Read More »

How will covid-19 change travel? | The Economist

2021-02-20

by The Economist

The covid-19 pandemic has devastated the travel industry. But as vaccines are rolled out and global travel slowly picks up, how will the industry evolve, and will holidays ever be the same again? Read more here: https://econ.st/3aA2row Sign up to The Economist’s daily newsletter to keep up to date with our latest coverage: https://econ.st/3aor3kg Read our special report about the future of tourism: https://econ.st/3bnP1vc Read about why...

Read More »

Two Seemingly Opposite Ends Of The Inflation Debate Come Together

2021-02-19

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2021-02-19

US Import Price Index All Commedities, 2019-2021

It’s worth taking a look at a couple of extremes, and the putting each into wider context of inflation/deflation. As you no doubt surmise, only one is receiving much mainstream attention. The other continues to be overshadowed by…anything else.

Read More »

Uncle Sam Was Back Having Consumers’ Backs

2021-02-18

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2021-02-18

American consumers were back in action in January 2021. The “unemployment cliff” along with the slowdown and contraction in the labor market during the last quarter of 2020 had left retail sales falling backward with employment. Seasonally-adjusted, total retail spending had declined for three straight months to end last year.

Read More »

Christine Lagarde: How covid-19 will shape Europe | The Economist

2021-02-12

by The Economist

Europe has been widely criticised for its slow response to the covid-19 pandemic. Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, discusses the long-term damage and whether things might have been different had there been more female leaders. Chapter titles 00:00 - Covid-19 in Europe 00:52 - How covid-19 worsens inequality 03:35 - Why female leaders have performed better 05:10 - How to have more female leaders 06:38 - Europe’s stimulus...

Read More »

The Endangered Inflationary Species: Gazelles

2021-02-11

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2021-02-11

BLS National Business Employment Dynamics, 1993-2020

Nevada is, by all accounts and accountants, in rough shape. Very rough shape. An economy overly dependent upon a single industry, tourism, in this case, is a disaster waiting to happen should anything happen to that industry. Pandemic restrictions, for instance.

Read More »

Can flying go green? | The Economist

2021-02-10

by The Economist

Covid-19 has caused the worst crisis in aviation's history. Is this the industry's moment for a green reset—and which technologies offer the best hope? Read The Economist’s special report on business and climate change: https://econ.st/3bbckJZ Sign up to The Economist’s fortnightly climate change newsletter: https://econ.st/3b8FQ3c Find our most recent climate change coverage: https://econ.st/3pQLYkq Can the aviation industry fully recover...

Read More »

Permanent Jobs And Permanent Job Losses

2021-02-09

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2021-02-09

Even the feds haven’t been able to keep up. Without the government having taken over student loans in the wake of 2008-09’s Great “Recession”, there’d have been almost no additional consumer credit extended during the decade since.

Read More »

Even The People ‘Printing’ The ‘Money’ Aren’t Seeing It

2021-02-07

by Jeffrey P. Snider

2021-02-07

Everyone in Europe has long forgotten about what was going on there before COVID. First, an economy that had been stuck two years within a deflationary downturn central bankers like Italy’s new recycled top guy Mario Draghi clumsily mistook for an inflationary takeoff. Both the inflation puzzle and ultimately a pre-pandemic recession have taken a back seat to everything corona.Whereas Draghi spent those years howling for inflationary conditions...

Read More »