Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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It’s All the Aliens’ Fault

2022-04-03

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2022-04-03

As for our central banks' defaulting on their lines of credit with the Martian Central Bank--that's another alien intervention we'll live to regret. I hope this won't shock the more sensitive readers too greatly, but I've discovered undeniable evidence that all our planet's problems are the result of alien intervention. Yes, aliens exist and are actively intervening in humanity's activities, to our great detriment. Wars, plagues, The...

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France 2022: How to predict an election | The Economist

2022-03-31

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For as long as elections have taken place someone has tried to predict what might happen. From polls to prediction models, uncertainty is always inevitable. What’s the best way to do it? 00:00 - What’s the best way to predict elections? 00:48 - How were elections predicted in the past? 02:36 - How do modern day polls work? 04:32 - Why polls miss the mark 07:14 - How does statistical modelling work? 08:30 - Our French election model See the data...

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Weekly Market Pulse: The Cure For High Prices

2022-03-31

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2022-03-31

There’s an old Wall Street maxim that the cure for high commodity prices is high commodity prices. As prices rise two things will generally limit the scope of the increase. Demand will wane as consumers just use less or find substitutes. Supply will also increase as the companies that extract these raw materials open new mines, grow more crops or drill new wells.

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We Can Only Hope For Another (bond) Massacre

2022-03-30

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2022-03-30

To begin with, the economy today is absolutely nothing like it had been almost thirty years ago. That fact in and of itself should end the discussion right here. However, comparisons will be made and it does no harm to review them.I’m talking about 1994, or, more specifically, the eleven months between late February 1994 and early February 1995.

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Cash from trash: could it clean up the world? | The Economist

2022-03-29

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The world is facing a growing waste problem, with 2bn tonnes produced last year alone. Is it possible to clean up this mess by turning trash into cash?

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War in Ukraine: The Economist interviews President Zelensky | The Economist

2022-03-28

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Volodymyr Zelensky talks to The Economist’s editor-in-chief, Zanny Minton Beddoes, in his Kyiv complex dubbed “the fortress”. In a wide-ranging interview, the Ukrainian president discusses the state of the war, the international support he needs and what a Ukrainian victory would look like. 00:00 President Zelensky meets The Economist 00:44 Actor-turned-president: how did it happen? 03:53 Where was President Zelensky when the war started? 04:34...

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SMART BOURSE – L’invité de la mi-journée : Thomas Costerg (Pictet WM)

2022-03-28

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Lundi 28 mars 2022, SMART BOURSE reçoit Thomas Costerg (Économiste sénior US, Pictet WM)

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Calm Before the Storm?

2022-03-28

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2022-03-28

Stocks don't vanish when sold; somebody owns the shares all the way to the bottom. These owners who refuse to sell because they have convinced themselves the next dip will be the hoped-for resumption of the bullish trend are called "bagholders."

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War in Ukraine: is a peace deal possible? | The Economist

2022-03-24

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As negotiations between Russia and Ukraine continue, our experts discuss what conditions might encourage both sides to lay down their weapons—and how likely a peace deal really is. 00:00 - War in Ukraine: when will there be peace? 00:37 - What would a peace deal involve? 02:30 - What will happen to Ukrainian territory? 04:29 - What is the perspective from the Russian side? 08:04 - Is Putin’s legitimacy weakening? Find all our coverage on the...

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Autocracy’s Fatal Weakness

2022-03-23

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2022-03-23

This desire for compliance and consensus dooms the autocracy to failure and collapse because dissent is the essence of evolutionary churn and adaptation. The various flavors of autocracy (theocracy, kleptocracy, dictatorship, etc.) look remarkably successful at first blush but they all share a fatal flaw.

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It Wouldn’t Be TIC Without So Much Other

2022-03-23

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2022-03-23

With the Fed (sadly) taking center stage last week, and market rejections of its rate hikes at the forefront, lost in the drama was January 2022 TIC. Understandable, given all its misunderstood numbers are two months behind at their release. There were some interesting developments regardless, and a couple of longer run parts that deserve some attention.

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Sustainable materials: is there a concrete solution? | The Economist

2022-03-22

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The construction industry is responsible for over a tenth of the world’s man-made carbon emissions, with concrete being the biggest culprit. How can we continue to build, without it costing the earth? Film supported by @Infosys 00:00 - The trouble with rubble 00:55 - Construction is driving climate change 02:54 - The second most consumed resource on the planet: concrete 03:44 - Why concrete is so bad for the environment 04:40 - Cement...

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How Healthcare Became Sickcare

2022-03-22

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2022-03-22

The financialization of healthcare started two generations ago and is now in a run-to-fail feedback loop of insolvency. Long-time readers know I have been critical of U.S. healthcare for over a decade. When I use the term sickcare this is not a reflection on the hard work of frontline caregivers--it is a reflection of the financialization incentives that have distorted the system's priorities and put it on a path to insolvency.

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Inversion Is The Real March Madness, Just Don’t Take It Literally

2022-03-22

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2022-03-22

With such low levels of self-awareness, it isn’t surprising that the FOMC’s members continue to pour gasoline on the already-blazing curve fire. March Madness is supposed to be on the courts of college basketball, instead it is playing out more vividly across all financial markets.

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The Fed Inadvertently Adds To Our Ironclad Collateral Case Which Does Seem To Have Already Included A ‘Collateral Day’ (or days)

2022-03-21

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2022-03-21

The Federal Reserve didn’t just raise the range for its federal funds target by 25 bps, upper and lower bounds, it also added the same to its twin policy tools which the “central bank” says are crucial to maintaining order in money markets thereby keeping federal funds inside the band where it is supposed to be. The FOMC voted to increase IOER from 15 bps to 40 bps, and the RRP from 5 bps to 30 bps.

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Baby Boomer Retirement at Risk

2022-03-20

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2022-03-20

The seven deadliest words in the English language—We’ve never done it this way before. And that certainly applies to Baby Boomers whose prospects for retirement are different than any preceding generation.

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Global Crisis, National Renewal: A (Revolutionary) Grand Strategy by: Charles Hugh Smith

2022-03-19

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National Security is not just military force. In an age of scarcity, security is a degrowth economy of energy independence, social cohesion and civic virtue. All nations, including the United States, face systemic crises that are reinforcing each other at an explosive point in history.

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Media Attention All Over FOMC, Market Attention Totally Elsewhere

2022-03-19

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2022-03-19

The Federal Reserve did something today, or actually announced today that it will do something as of tomorrow. And since we’re all conditioned to believe this is the biggest thing ever, I’ll have to add my own $0.02 (in eurodollars, of course, can’t be bank reserves) frustratingly contributing to the very ritual I’m committed to seeing end.We shouldn’t care much about the Fed.

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There Is An Absolutely Solid Collateral Case For What’s Driving Curve Inversion(s) [Part 2]

2022-03-18

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2022-03-18

Securities lending as standard practice is incredibly complicated, and for many the process can be counterintuitive. With numerous different players contributing various pieces across a wide array of financial possibilities, not to mention the whole expanse of global geography, collateral for collateral swaps have gone largely unnoticed by even mainstream Economics and central banking.

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Gene editing: should you be worried? | The Economist

2022-03-17

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From combating climate change, to curing disease, to creating designer babies, gene-editing technologies have the potential to transform lives. What risks do they pose? 00:00 - Gene editing: risk v reward 01:06 - Cavendish bananas are under threat 03:47 - GM crops have a bad reputation 05:18 - GM mosquitoes could reduce transmissible viruses 07:50 - Ethical concerns around genetic interventions 09:30 - Editing genes with CRISPR 10:57 - CRISPR...

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