Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Are The ‘Invisible Americans’ the Key Players in This Election?

2016-09-28

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2016-09-28

For the bottom 90% of American households, the "prosperity" of the "recovery" since 2009 is a bright shining lie. The phrase is from a history of the Vietnam War, A Bright Shining Lie: John Paul Vann and America in Vietnam. Just as the Vietnam War was built on lies, propaganda, PR and rigged statistics(the infamous body counts--civilians killed as "collateral damage" counted as "enemy combatants"), so too is the "recovery" nothing but a pathetic...

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Trump, Trade and Taxes

2016-09-27

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2016-09-27

Donald Trump has made trade agreements a central issue in this presidential election, declaring trade treaties such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as unfair and subject to cancellation or renegotiation. Setting aside the issue of whether presidents can cancel trade treaties via executive orders, let's look at the underlying issue: the erosion of manufacturing and entry-level job opportunities that lead to middle-class security...

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Why the Deep State Is Dumping Hillary

2016-09-26

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2016-09-26

The Deep State Network
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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2016-09-26

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2016-09-26

EM initially benefitted from the FOMC decision, but softened into the weekend. One culprit was lower oil prices, as reports suggest an output deal is unlikely at the OPEC meeting this week in Algeria. But it wasn’t just EM, as the greenback closed firmer against the majors as well. We still believe that risk and EM should do fine over the next few weeks, as the Fed basically set a two-month window of steady rates.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-09-24

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2016-09-24

In the EM local currency bond space, Brazil (10-year yield -36 bp), Turkey (-26 bp), and Hungary (-17 bp) have outperformed this week, while Ukraine (10-year yield +9 bp), Mexico (+2 bp), and China (flat) have underperformed.  

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What If We’re in a Depression But Don’t Know It?

2016-09-23

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2016-09-23

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate
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RTD Ep:46 “The FED Is Walking A Tightrope” – Charles Hugh Smith

2016-09-23

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Subscribe and share the RTD interviews and news articles… Thanks for watching this interview with author and monetary enthusiast Charles Hugh Smith. Share your thoughts below and give us a thumbs up if you enjoyed this conversation. Interview w/ Charles Hugh Smith on 8/13/15 RTD Ep:20 “Currency Created Out Of Thin Air” – Charles Hugh …

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Why the Coming Wave of Defaults Will Be Devastating

2016-09-22

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2016-09-22

Total Credit ASTDSL + ASTLL
In an economy based on borrowing, i.e. credit a.k.a. debt, loan defaults and deleveraging (reducing leverage and debt loads) matter. Consider this chart of total credit in the U.S. Note that the relatively tiny decline in total credit in 2008 caused by subprime mortgage defaults (a.k.a. deleveraging) very nearly collapsed not just the U.S. financial system but the entire global financial system.

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Julius Baer CEO says Asia revenue may excede Europe’s in 5 years

2016-09-22

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2016-09-22

Julius Baer Group Ltd. said Asia may overtake Europe as its biggest revenue-generating region, as the Swiss wealth manager steps up hiring in Hong Kong and Singapore. “In the next five years, Asia could be the biggest region for us if we grow at double-digit” rates, Chief Executive Officer Boris Collardi said Wednesday in an interview in Singapore. More than half of about 200 new bankers that Julius Baer plans to hire this year will be based in...

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The Three Stages of Empire

2016-09-21

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2016-09-21

US Defense Budget
I consider it self-evident that we are in the third and final stage of self-serving Imperial decay. Though Edward Luttwak's The Grand Strategy of the Roman Empire: From the First Century CE to the Third is not specifically on the rise and fall of empires, it does sketch out the three stages of Empire.

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The German village that produces five times more energy than it needs | The Economist

2016-09-21

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Why be just a dairy farmer when you can be an energy farmer too? Thanks to an ambitious adoption of renewable energy techniques, residents of Wildpoldsried in Bavaria no longer need fossil fuels. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 The Disrupters is an original series exploring how major industries – from …

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Charles Hugh Smith: Optimizing Bad Policy Guaranteed to Fail

2016-09-20

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Sep 21 – Well-known author and economic commentator, Charles Hugh Smith at oftwominds.com, explains the “optimization problem” facing policymakers and why this inevitably leads to some form of economic self-destruction… http://www.financialsense.com/subscribe

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The ZIRP/NIRP Gods and their PhD Priesthood Have Failed

2016-09-20

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2016-09-20

The priesthood's insane obsession with forcing people to spend their savings by punishing savers with ZIRP/NIRP has failed spectacularly for a simple reason: it completely misunderstands human psychology. Let's start with a simple chart of the Fed Funds Rate, which the Federal Reserve has pinned near zero for years.

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Oil and gas companies are facing major technological disruption

2016-09-20

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Pressure to reduce carbon emissions is putting the future of fossil fuel giants in jeopardy. Their survival plans involve carbon storage and floating wind farms. Meanwhile, one small German village is showing how large companies aren’t always essential. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Over 80% of the world’s energy needs …

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2016-09-19

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2016-09-19

EM ended the week on a soft note. Volatility is likely to remain high as markets are jittery and choppy ahead of the BOJ/FOMC meetings on Thursday. Dollar gains were broad-based last week, but EM certainly underperformed. China markets will reopen after a two-day holiday, but good news out of the mainland is doing little to help EM.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2016-09-16

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2016-09-16

The IEA forecast that the surplus in global oil markets will last for longer than previously thought. Philippine President Duterte called for US troops to leave the southern island of Mindanao. Relations between Poland and the EU are deteriorating. Former head of Brazil’s lower house Eduardo Cunha was expelled and banned from public office for eight years. Brazil’s central bank cut the amount of daily reverse swap contracts sold to 5,000.

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How About Presenting the Facts and Letting Voters Decide Who’s “Fit to Serve”?

2016-09-16

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2016-09-16

Ministry of Propaganda
This simple two-step process would greatly diminish the Ministry of Propaganda's influence. Here's a radical idea: how about presenting the facts and letting voters decide who is "fit to serve"? Consider the context of this presidential election and the judgment call as to who is "fit to serve":

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The Mainstream Media Bet the Farm on Hillary–and Lost

2016-09-15

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2016-09-15

The MSM has forsaken its duty in a democracy and is a disgrace to investigative, unbiased journalism. The mainstream media bet the farm on Hillary Clinton, confident that their dismissal of every skeptical inquiry as a "conspiracy" would guarantee her victory. It now appears they have lost their bet.

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It’s Time to Bring Back Bernie

2016-09-13

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2016-09-13

This tells you everything you need to know about how Hillary will operate as President: there will be no honesty, transparency or truth, ever. Hillary's bid for the presidency is no longer defensible; it's time to bring back Bernie Sanders as the Democratic nominee.

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How does a floating wind turbine stand up?

2016-09-13

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It is not just utility companies racing to respond to the rise of renewable energy. Oil and gas giant Statoil is building on four decades of offshore experience to erect its first floating wind farm. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 The Disrupters is an original series exploring how major industries …

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