Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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How will ride-sharing shape the future of transport? | The Economist

2017-01-16

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Ride-sharing could transform the concept of car ownership and even the very fabric of our cities. We take a behind-the-scenes look at how Uber and Lyft are helping to shape a global transport revolution. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 The meteoric rise of ride-hailing apps is part of a global …

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2017-01-16

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2017-01-16

EM FX ended the week mixed. Markets continue to grapple with the outlook for the so-called Trump Trade, which we believe is intact. MXN and TRY recovered from the relentless selling of recent days, but both remain vulnerable. Indeed, if the jump in US yields on Friday continues this week, most of EM should remain under pressure.

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Dear Self-Proclaimed “Progressives”: as Apologists for the Neocon-Neoliberal Empire, You Are as Evil as the Empire You’ve Enabled

2017-01-15

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2017-01-15

Federal Government Support
Dear Self-Proclaimed "Progressive": I love you, man, but it has become necessary to intervene in your self-destruction. Your ideological blinders and apologies for the Establishment's Neocon-Neoliberal Empire are not just destroying your credibility, they're destroying the nation and everywhere the Empire intervenes.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-01-14

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2017-01-14

world
China’s government has asked banks to balance their yuan inflows and outflows. Indonesia partially lifted a ban on exports of nickel ore and bauxite. Czech President Zeman picked two new central bankers as the end of the koruna cap looms. Turkish central bank is taking limited measures to support the lira. Turkey’s parliament voted 338-134 to discuss proposed constitutional changes that would increase the power of the presidency.

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What’s Truly Progressive?

2017-01-14

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2017-01-14

The New Normal
What's progressive? Pushing power, agency, skills, capital and solutions down to the individual, household, community, enterprise, town and city levels and focusing on doing more with much less.

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Behind the cover: lifelong learning | The Economist

2017-01-13

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Innovation in robotics and artificial intelligence means that workers now need to acquire new skills in order to compete during their careers. Our deputy editor Edward Carr discusses our cover story this week on why governments need to support lifelong learning and why, ultimately, this is good for society. Click here to subscribe to The …

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The Eight Forces That Are Pressuring Profits

2017-01-13

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2017-01-13

Spending by the top 5% pulls away from the 95%
If there is any economic assumption that goes unquestioned, it's the notion that profits will remain robust for the foreseeable future. This assumption ignores the tidal forces that are now flowing against profits. Any discussion of corporate profits must start by noting the astonishing rise in U.S. corporate profits since the heyday of the late 1990s dot-com boom. From $800 billion to $2.4 trillion in a few years is not just extraordinary--it's...

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Kal draws… Assad’s bombshell announcement

2017-01-11

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Syria’s president Bashar al-Assad claimed this week that the bombing of Aleppo was justified. Our cartoonist Kal interprets the dictator’s brazen rhetoric Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films every day of the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full …

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“I, Daniel Blake” is very real | The Economist

2017-01-10

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“I, Daniel Blake”, a BAFTA-nominated film by the veteran director Ken Loach, tells the fictional story of an unemployed man facing his benefits being cut. For Stuart, a real-life version of Blake, the process is all too real. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 For over 50 years, Ken Loach’s films …

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Why Don’t the U.S. Dollar and Bitcoin Drop to Their Tangible Value, i.e. Zero?

2017-01-09

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2017-01-09

Bitcoin January 2016 - January 2017
I have covered the many reasons why the U.S. dollar (USD) has strengthened in dozens of posts over the past 5 years, (Could the U.S. Dollar Rise 50%?, January 12, 2011), and I described the positive dynamics of bitcoin last summer in An Everyman's Guide to Understanding Cryptocurrencies (June 13, 2016), back when bitcoin was under $600.

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Why Profits Are Faltering

2017-01-08

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2017-01-08

National Income: Corporate Profits
Profits are faltering for structural reasons that are not easily resolved. The bedrock assumption of the Bull market is that corporate profits will keep rising indefinitely. Hiccups are allowed, but current stock market valuations are implicitly based on profits expanding.

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We Can Only Afford One, So Choose Wisely: Social Security/Medicare, Cartel Cronyism or Inflation (a.k.a. Central Banking)

2017-01-07

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2017-01-07

U.S. Healthcare System, Health Expenditure, Life Expenctancy
Here's the problem with central banks seeking higher inflation: costs go up but wages don't. It's easy to quantify the annual cost of Social Security/Medicare, and not so easy to calculate the cost of Cartel Cronyism and Central Bank-created inflation.Cartel cronyism is a hidden tax on the entire economy, as is Central Bank-created inflation.

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Prosperity = Abundant Work + Low Cost of Living

2017-01-06

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2017-01-06

Net Annual Change in the Number of Firms
If we seek a coherent context for the new year, we would do well to start with the foundations of widespread prosperity. While the economy is a vast, complex machine, the sources of widespread prosperity are not that complicated: abundant work and a low cost of living.

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Fragmentation and the De-Optimization of Centralization

2017-01-05

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2017-01-05

US Healthcare System
Many observers decry the loss of national coherence and purpose, and the increasing fragmentation of the populace into "tribes" with their own loyalties, value systems and priorities. These observers look back on the national unity of World War II as the ideal social standard: everyone pitching in, with shared purpose and sacrifice. (Never mind the war killed tens of millions of people, including over 400,000 Americans.)

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Debt deficit distinction | The Economist

2017-01-04

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Countries around the world are grappling with painful national debt. Although it is thought of as a burden, our cartoonist KAL illustrates the benefits of debt. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 The debt deficit distinction. Countries around the world are now grappling with painful debt. The economics A-Z described the …

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Emerging Market: Week Ahead Preview

2017-01-03

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2017-01-03

earth
EM FX was a mixed bag over the past week. Dollar softness vs. the majors allowed some in EM to gain traction, with ZAR and PEN the biggest gainers since Christmas. On the other hand, ARS TRY, and INR were the biggest losers. With markets coming back to life, we expect EM to remain broadly under pressure as the same major investment themes remain in place.

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Modi’s Great Leap Forward

2017-01-02

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2017-01-02

India's Economy
India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, announced on 8th November 2016 that Rs 500 (~$7.50) and Rs 1,000 (~$15) banknotes would no longer be legal tender. Linked are Part-I, Part-II, Part-III, Part-IV, Part-V, Part-VI and Part-VII, which provide updates on the demonetization saga and how Modi is acting as a catalyst to hasten the rapid degradation of India and what remains of its institutions.

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Why I’m Hopeful

2017-01-02

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2017-01-02

santa2010
Readers often ask me to post something hopeful, and I understand why: doom-and-gloom gets tiresome. Human beings need hope just as they need oxygen, and the destruction of the Status Quo via over-reach and internal contradictions doesn't leave much to be happy about.

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Ungovernable Nation, Ungovernable Economy

2017-01-01

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2017-01-01

Wealth distribution since 1917
Yesterday I described the conditions that render the U.S. ungovernable. Here is a chart of why the U.S. economy will also be ungovernable. Longtime readers are acquainted with the S-curve model of expansion, maturity, stagnation and decline.

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What Triggers Collapse?

2017-01-01

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2017-01-01

A variety of forces will disrupt or obsolete existing modes of production and the social order. Though no one can foretell the future, it is self-evident that the status quo—dependent as it is on cheap oil and fast-expanding debt—is unsustainable. So what will trigger the collapse of the status quo, and what lies beyond when the current arrangements break down?  Can we predict how-when-where with any accuracy? All prediction is based on...

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